Four NFL picks to get back on track for Week 9

 

For those of you who don’t care how we come to our predictions, you will find the picks at the top of these posts for the rest of the season. The explanations for them are below. Enjoy!

The BSN picks of the week:

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs. New York Jets

Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Carolina Panthers

Denver Broncos +1 at Oakland Raiders

It’s time to move on and get back to it. After a few rough weeks we’re sticking to the numbers and focusing on YPP and our EW 2016 projections.

This week EW offers up seven differentials of 3 points or more, while YPP has three differentials over 5 points and three more of 4 points or more.

With that we’re going after consensus picks and sticking to games that follow sound logic to get back on track.
Here’s how it all breaks down plus our metrics suggested spreads for Week 9 below.

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Our YPP pick of the week

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons have had a few tough weeks, after losing a close game to the San Diego Chargers two weeks ago and barely scraping by a ‘W’ against the Green Bay Packers. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have picked up their play some. They’ve won two of their last three against the Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers, while also taking the Oakland Raiders to overtime this past week.

The Buccaneers remain a bottom two team per YPP and are predicted to have 6 wins at the end of the 2016 season per our EW numbers. So while they’ve shown themselves to be a tough out the last month, they’re still not performing at very high levels. Their lack of a run game is also a pretty big issue.

The Falcons, in a division game, that they should win easily need to step up on the road and show that they’re for real. YPP thinks they will as they’re given as 10.5 point favorites on a neutral field and 7.5 in Tampa Bay. That’s a 4 point differential which typically is right on the cusp of us wanting to pull the trigger on, but we’re believers in the Falcons and think they’ll get back on track this week.

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Our consensus picks of the week

Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs. New York Jets

Here’s another 3.5 point favorite against a bottom dweller YPP team. However, with Miami at home and being the second best YPP team in the league we couldn’t resist.

On a neutral field, the Dolphins are considered -6.5 favorites, at home they’re -9.5. That’s a significant difference of 3 points, our second highest of the week and highest amongst our picks.

The Jets have won their last two against the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens, taking them to 3-5 on the year. Similarly to the Buccaneers, they’re playing some of their better football at this point in the season.

While the Dolphins are also coming off two consecutive ‘W’s’ and a bye week, Miami is flying high and has been playing some superb football; they’re the 12th best defense in the NFL per yards allowed and third in offensive YPP. EW also has Miami -7 in this game.

While nothing is ever a safe pick, we like the Dolphins here by a fairly large margin.

Los Angeles Rams +3 vs. Carolina Panthers

This was a slightly tougher pick to make as the Carolina Panthers showed signs of life this past week by beating the Arizona Cardinals fairly convincingly. More importantly for Carolina, their run game and ability to dominate on the defensive front seemed to return, so this isn’t as clear cut as the numbers would suggest especially since the Rams offense is always a bit of a risk.

LA is an odd team as they’re 2-1 in their division but 1-3 outside of it with losses to the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, and New York Giants. While their record is still better than Carolina’s and they’re at home, recent play is a bit of a factor.

The Rams are well suited for a ground and pound type matchup which is exactly how Carolina wants to play. While the line makers have Carolina as 6 point favorites in a neutral field, a high number considering their performance in 2016, YPP has them as only 0.5 points better. That’s a 5.5 point differential from the actual spread, our second largest amongst our picks.

Give us the Rams in hope that this is a 9-3 type game like LA’s first home win this year against the Seattle Seahawks.

Denver Broncos +1 at Oakland Raiders

Divisional matchups are always risky bets as familiarity can alter matchups. However, this appears to be a particularly favorable game for the Broncos. Their defense has shown great ability in limiting even the best offenses they’ve faced, and even their two losses came while allowing 21 and 23 points. Denver’s defensive unit has now taken over for the Minnesota Vikings as the top defense per YPP, conceding 4.5 yards per play. Meanwhile, Oakland’s offense is the fifth-ranked unit with 6.1 yards per play on average, so something will have to give in this matchup.

More telling though is the Raiders bottom of the NFL defensive ranking where they’re allowing 6.5 yards per play, an astonishing number. At that pace, even Denver’s bottom ten offense creating 5.2 yards per play on average should find success.

The big reason why Derek Carr wasn’t regarded as a first-round prospect when coming out of Fresno State was his struggles against on-coming pressure. With the leading sack defense in the NFL and Von Miller attacking the right tackle, a spot that’s been problematic for the Raiders this year, that should be a key matchup in the game.

Even with this game in Oakland, YPP has the Broncos as -2 favorites and 5 point favorites if this game were to be played on a neutral field. EW has the spread exactly the same, an encouraging sign. We’re counting on the Denver ‘D’ winning the matchup and the Broncos offense doing just enough to exploit Oakland’s struggling unit.

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Numbers, news, and notes

Every year the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Baltimore Ravens is a classic matchup of two great franchises. However, this week with Ben Roethlisberger’s injury status and return still uncertain, there is no line for this game as of now.

Also, you’ll see below in our numbers chart that the Jacksonville Jaguars have a 6.5 point differential in their favor against the Kansas City Chiefs. This game is in large disagreement with the 2016 EW spread that has KC as -13.5 point favorites. That plus the Chiefs making a change at quarterback with Nick Foles and this was just too unpredictable.

Two other YPP differentials in the 4 point range, such as the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns are also in direct opposition with our updated EW spreads, so we’re airing on the side of caution.

Teams	Current Spread	YPP #	Advantage	Home Field	Suggested Spread	Difference	EW 2016 Suggested Spread	Difference
ATL	-3.5	1.2	6		-7.5	4	-3
@TB		-0.9	-4.5	3				0.5
PIT		-0.4	-2				Even
@BAL		-0.3	-1.5	3	-3.5		Even
DAL	-7.5	0.5	2.5		-3		-11	3.5
@CLE		-0.7	-3.5	3		4.5
JAX		0.1	0.5			6.5
@KC	-9	-0.1	-0.5	3.5	-2.5		-13.5	4.5
NYJ		-0.6	-3
@MIA	-3.5	0.7	3.5	3	-9.5	6	-7	3.5
PHI		-0.2	-1				-5	7.5
@NYG	-2.5	0.6	3	3	-7	4.5
DET		-0.3	-1.5			2
@MIN	-6.5	-0.1	-0.5	3.5	-4.5		-9.5	3
CAR	-3	-0.1	-0.5
@LAR		-0.2	-1	3	-2.5	5.5	-0.5	3.5
NO	-3	-0.2	-1		-2.5		-3	0
@SF		-1.3	-6.5	3		0.5
TEN		0.3	1.5			3		1.5
@SD	-5.5	0.2	1	3	-2.5		-4
IND		-0.7	-3.5			1.5
@GB	-7	-0.3	-1.5	3.5	-5.5		-7.5	0.5
DEN		0.6	3		-2	3	-2	3
@OAK	-1	-0.4	-2	3
BUF		0	0			1		4.5
@SEA	-7	0.5	2.5	3.5	-6		-2.5