Four Colorado Rockies who could take the club to the next level or leave them standing stagnant

Last week, we reminded ourselves how extremely volatile bullpens can be in general and noted that for the Colorado Rockies, this is doubly so.

Also this wide window of possibilities, from the best to the worst case scenarios, seems to represent a wide range of possible outcomes for the club in the upcoming 2020 season.

This isn’t just the situation for the bullpen, though.

Let’s take a look at four position players who also embody this dynamic and could end up being the difference between whether the Rox sink or swim next season.

Sam Hilliard:

Getting excited over the September that 15th-round draft pick Sam Hilliard produced to end the 2019 campaign is not only natural but expected of anyone with a pulse. In 87 plate appearances, he hit .273/.356/.649 with seven home runs and 13 RBI. He also stole a couple of bases and looked more than serviceable playing the toughest centerfield in baseball.

So what to expect?

Low End: Spends all season in AAA

Sometimes guys take the league by storm, catch lightning in a bottle, and other weather metaphors before falling back to earth. Before his incredible outburst, thinking he would begin 2020 in Triple-A was just about the only reasonable position to hold.

With the Rockies having decent depth in the outfield, though, it is also now reasonable to revert to that position a bit. Hilliard could cool off and get back to his previous schedule. If the Rockies are healthy and playing well, that could mean not seeing him at all in the Bigs in 2020.

Zero Value: Doesn’t appear until meaningless September

Similarly he could end up in that situation but the Rockies struggle to compete again and so we once again don’t see him until the club is playing games that don’t matter to the postseason standings.

High End: Starting CF who goes 20/20

Here’s the fun one.

If Sam Hilliard has a brilliant spring training, he could become the team’s starting center fielder. And then if he keeps playing well, he could hold onto that job for the rest of the season and beyond.

Of course we’re talking very high end here. But the fact is, his athleticism, defense, and smarts have already proven to be a workable combo in MLB and home runs against Noah Syndergaard and Josh Hader suggest the power will play as well.

All the tools are there for him to hit 20+ home runs, steal 20+ bases… strikeout 200+ times… and give the kind of glove work in center the Rockies have desperately needed for a few years now.

Garrett Hampson

Hampson stumbled out of the gate last year and finished in a flurry, giving us a glimpse of his spectrum of possibilities already.

Low End: Repeats 2019

If he can’t get off to a better start, he could once again struggle to find consistent playing time. The question remains about whether or not his bat is going to play at the MLB level. He’s never had a ton of power and his inability to hit the ball hard for the first several months of the season meant a blistering finish still only salvaged a 63 wRC+ in 327 plate appearances.

This being the worst number he has ever put up at any level, including his first 24 games in the majors, suggests it represents his floor.

Zero Value: Injury

As the roster stands, Hampson will either be a catch-all super utility man off the bench but he could even make his way into a starting position in the outfield with a stellar spring. There is almost no chance Colorado doesn’t count on him in 2020 to take up a ton of innings even if he never becomes a primary starter.

As such, the only way he is likely to provide zero value is if he suffers an injury.

High End: Super Utility Man

The vision for Hampson has always been that he can serve as an insurance policy at every position on the diamond other than pitcher and catcher. I’ve never seen him at first, but something tells me he could even manage that if had to.

Because of his speed – he is the fastest player on the team and one of the fastest in MLB according to Statcast – and his ability to play solid defense at the most demanding positions, including shortstop and centerfield, give him an exceptionally high floor.

If he can continue to build on the improvements in his bat, that are linked directly to a mechanical change, and use the experience he has gained so far to take that next step, he could end up being one of the most indispensable members of the 2020 roster.

Ryan McMahon

Now is the time for Ryan McMahon.

Low End: He has already peaked

The worst case scenario right now is that we have already seen the best of Ryan McMahon. Perhaps he simply plateaus as a good-to-great defender with solid pop who strikes out too much and won’t hit for an incredibly high average.

There’s a place for that player on any roster, but it would be hard to see that result as anything less than a disappointment considering the insane amount of still-untapped potential that is reflected in his peripherals, most especially his “hard hit” rate of 47.7 percent, the 22nd best mark in baseball.

Zero Value: Injury

McMahon is one of those players for whom it will be almost impossible to produce a 0.0 WAR campaign. Colorado will be counting on him all season on both offense and defense and probably in multiple positions, filling in at times at first and third.

The only way I see he provides no negative or positive value is if he gets hurt.

High End: All-Star

As listeners of the DNVR Rockies Podcast know, I think Ryan McMahon is the next first-time All-Star for the Rockies. He has as good a chance as anyone on the team to take his game up a notch and really become a weapon.

He just turned 25. He’s now got a full season off the bench and a full season as a starter under his belt. It’s all right there in front of him. He’s not worried about making the team or finding his role. He is ready for his David Dahl-esque breakout campaign.

Brendan Rodgers

And now we come to the wildest of cards.

Low End: A rude awakening

Maybe it just never comes together for Rodgers. Hey, it happens. Baseball is hard. Evaluating prospects is hard. His injury history is concerning. And he didn’t, under any fair definition, take MLB by storm in his 81 plate appearances in 25 games, tallying only two extra-base hits (both doubles) striking out 33 percent of the time and getting on base at just a .272 clip.

Then he got hurt and shut down for the rest of the year.

This leaves just about everyone in ambiguous territory when it comes to what to expect from the Rockies top prospect. If Colorado tries to push him too hard, or if everything else just catches up with him, he could end up being one of those guys we all wonder how it never worked out for him.

Zero Value: Stuck in Triple-A/Injury

Unlike last season when he was rushed a bit to the Bigs out of necessity, if he is healthy, Rodgers is expected to play in MLB next year. If the recovery takes too long, and/or if the big boys are healthy and producing in the middle-infield, there is a slim chance we won’t see Rodgers outside of Triple-A next season, a la Carlos Estevez in 2018.

But that’s about it. If he gets back out there and starts doing his thing in Albuquerque again, he will be called upon at some point.

High End: Rookie of the Year

The shoulder injury makes this possibility a little less likely. But let’s not get it twisted when it comes to discussing the potential of this kid.

Let’s put it this way. He has better draft pedigree, prospects evaluations, and minor league numbers than did Trevor Story, Ryan McMahon, Raimel Tapia, Kyle Freeland, and arguably even Dahl, who is probably his closest comparison.

That doesn’t mean much until he does it where it matters the most. However, the last calendar year absolutely should not wipe away the very real possibility that Brendan Rodgers could be a huge difference maker for his club in 2020.

Conclusion

It is easy to fall into a mindset that suggests a team coming off a poor season that hasn’t (yet) added a single player to the MLB roster must be in store for a similarly painful campaign. And that may well be what happens.

But it’s worth taking a look at these four players and recognizing the potential they have to supplant that narrative with a new one.