Five great NFL picks for Week 4

For those of you who don’t care how we come to our predictions, and trust us after a 4-1 weekend, you will find the picks at the top of these posts for the rest of the season. The explanations for them are below. Enjoy!

The BSN picks of the week:

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts

Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. Carolina Panthers

New York Giants +4.5 at Minnesota Vikings

Kansas City Chiefs +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver Broncos -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Alright, it’s time for another round of picks in anticipation of the Week 4 games. We feel good having gone 4-and-1 this past week and having a 7-and-3 overall record. In football, anything’s possible and danger is always lurking around the corner.

This week we are jumping into our YPP numbers head first. While the 8-8 overall record last week isn’t great, that was in part due to games where YPP had a differential of one or fewer points, in such games YPP was a toxic 0-5. However, with differentials of two points or more, the numbers were 8-and-3 against the spread. With three solid weeks of data and the continued assistance of our Expected Win numbers (or EW), we give you five picks for the week, two consensuses and the rest all suggested by YPP. Our YPP chart can be found at the bottom of the page.

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Analyzing our consensus picks:

For starters, there’s a lack of consensus picks because EW continues to be incredibly close to the actual lines, so there really aren’t all that many appealing EW spreads. However, EW was very much in agreement with these two picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5

The Jaguars famously blew a game they should have had against the Ravens last week, putting them at 0-3 on the season, their same record against the spread. So, this pick might come as a surprise. Then again, the Colts aren’t all that good either, boasting a 1-2 record against the spread. These division rivals split their double header last year, with the Jaguars losing at home in overtime by three points and then abusing the Colts on the road, 51-16. Even though they split, Jacksonville was clearly the better team in the series.

This is also a huge game for the Jaguars who, in many ways, have their season on the line and they have to be feeling the heat for their coach. Give us the Jags at home.

Atlanta Falcons +3

The Falcons against the Panthers is a matchup of top ten YPP teams. Though surprisingly, Atlanta is the team that would be favored in a neutral site, with the YPP spread at -4 in their Dome, a big difference from the actual line. Remember, the Falcons are also the only team that beat the Panthers in 2015, preventing their perfect season. Carolina is certain to be motivated now that they’re 1-2 on the season, while Atlanta has to be feeling good after a big Monday Night win.

The Falcons are far from world-beaters defensively but they’re the NFL’s top team for offensive YPP, outgaining the Panthers attack by an average of 1.6 yards-per-play, a massive difference.

Both Jags and Dirty Birds are slightly favored by our EW metric, but YPP likes both teams significantly.

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Breaking down the YPP picks:

Denver Broncos -3

As heard on our Football Betting podcast, our YPP pick of the week was Denver +3 in Cincinnati. The Broncos continue to rank as the top YPP team in the NFL, while the Buccaneers, who were high in the metric in 2015 have been in the bottom 10 so far this year. Denver is considered a nine-point favorite by YPP in a neutral site and by six in Tampa.

Honestly, it’s a bit surprising this line has stayed at three, it’s probably best to jump on it while you still can, before the spread begins to climb. We like Denver by six, don’t go past that and be careful if the line begins to rise.

Kansas City Chiefs +5

The Chiefs defense finally broke out, rewarding us for the faith we’d shown in them, in spite of their Week 2 letdown in Houston. This week, the Chiefs are big underdogs against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that’s surprisingly at the bottom of the YPP rankings. Even before getting beaten down by the Philadelphia Eagles last week, the Steelers had a negative yard differential and were at the bottom of the rankings. In fact, YPP predicted the upset by the Eagles.

The YPP line has the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites, despite the game being played in Pittsburgh. The Steelers offense struggled against the pressure Philadelphia was able to unleash on them, while the Chiefs were swarming to the ball against the Jets with 15 passes deflected and six interceptions. That said, it’s been the Steelers defense that’s had the greatest issues. They rank as the fourth-worst unit in the NFL allowing 6.5-yards on average per play. Give us the Chiefs.

New York Giants +4.5

This might be the toughest pick of all because it requires us to go against the Minnesota Vikings, a team that’s been very kind to us so far this year. However, the Vikings game this Sunday against the Panthers dropped their offense in the bottom three of the metric. The Giants, on the other hand, despite a heartbreaking loss to the Washington Redskins, are tied with Denver atop the YPP rankings.

The G-Men’s offense is a top-four unit by this metric, but it’s their defense that’s impressed this year and is playing at a top-ten level. That’s the primary reason for the Giants being so high on the YPP rankings. On top of that, Vegas has finally adjusted to the Vikings, tired of losing money on them and making them big favorites.

The YPP spread has the Giants as 2.5-point favorites, that’s a seven-point differential, I like those chances.

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Injury concerns and other news of the week:

There was one spread that both metrics were strongly in favor of, the Chicago Bears +3 at home against the Detroit Lions. With both metrics suggested spreads having the Bears -4. Sadly, those numbers can’t be trusted, EW is based on the preseason over/under totals which did not take into account a Jay Cutler-less team, while YPP liked the Bears much better in the first two weeks. The YPP number you are seeing now is affected by the team’s play when Cutler was in the lineup. The Bears YPP differential has decreased since their loss last week. The figures on the Bears are simply not trustworthy. While we’ve won by gambling on similar situations with the Vikings and New England Patriots this year, the initial signs from Brian Hoyer were anything but encouraging.

There were two spreads that were virtually impossible to find as of Tuesday night: that’s the two games being played by the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots. Seattle’s line has come out Wednesday with them being 2.5-point favorites over the New York Jets, but both these lines are affected because of quarterback injuries for both teams.

Russell Wilson’s status is in doubt this week and the situation in New England is completely unclear. The Pats haven’t added a QB this week, so you assume someone between the banged up Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garroppolo should be ready to go. How healthy or which of the two is a complete shot in the dark right now. Some sportsbooks have given these games a spread, but until we know more it’s virtually a guessing game.

Another big piece of news is that J.J. Watt will be out this week and could be lost for the season. Because of this, the line between the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans has jumped from Texans -6.5 to -5.5. This could be troubling news for a Texans team that’s seventh in defensive YPP.

OUR YPP CHART: