College football is the greatest sport in the world because it’s unpredictable, as a gambler that can be addictively fun, though at times it feels like the equivalent of finding entertainment in lighting your money on fire.

After a week full of big upsets this slate is seemingly boring but not form a betting perspective where our numbers suggested three games and the eye test another two. That’s where the majority of our picks are focused as we only have one real noteworthy big game of the week – the battle of LA just doesn’t appeal with the struggling Bruins playing on the road.

Last week things seemed perfect but after a few nail-biting losses (we’re looking at you Colorado State), we tied for the week going 3-1-3 with our picks. That takes us to  28-1-24 on the year against the spread.

Without further ado here we go with our Week 12 picks.

Picks of the week

Arizona +2.5 at Oregon 

We’ve been hitting the Wildcats hard since the emergence of microwave Heisman candidate Khalil Tate, the Arizona quarterback. Since Tate’s started, Zona’s won five of six with a margin of victory of 12.5 in those five wins, with the one loss coming to USC.

Thanks to Tate, the Rich Rodriquez offense is the third-best rushing attack in the nation and the third highest scoring offense. That’ll be a problem for the Ducks who are allowing 30 points per game (89th in the country) and who’s offense, while good, isn’t at the level of what Tate and company are doing.

After impressing some with their out of conference play Oregon has won two of seven and lost four of their last five in Pac-12 play. Most of those losses have been ugly and even with the return of quarterback Justin Herbert, the Ducks aren’t going to be a significantly better team, especially if he’s not 100-percent.

Vegas still seems to be undervaluing Rich Rod’s squad since the change at QB, but we won’t make the same mistake, -2.5 would sound good making them underdogs to a .500 Ducks team just feels like easy money.

TCU -7 at Texas Tech

This is a game brought to you by our numbers with the Horned Frogs being a touchdown favorite on the road to a Texas Tech defense that’s played fairly well, even if their conventional stats aren’t great – or at least they’ve played better than their usual standards. The bigger issue’s been the offense for the Red Raiders who haven’t found a consistent groove against higher quality in-conference opponents. Against the TCU ‘D’, that’ll be an issue and their offense is good enough to tear up Tech’s defense like other high powered Big 12 attacks have.

In their five defeats to the Big 12’s best teams the Red Raiders lost by a margin of 13 points, TCU’s better than all but two of those teams so expect the trend to continue. Anything less than a double-digit win by the Horned Frogs would be surprising as they’re a much superior team.

Northwestern -7 versus Minnesota

Unless you’re a die-hard Big Ten fan you probably don’t realize that the Wildcats are actually ranked 23rd in the country this year, having won five in a row including impressive W’s over Michigan State and Iowa. In those five games, Northwestern’s won by an average of 9.5 points against much tougher competition than the 5-and-5 Gophers.

Minnesota’s won only two of their last seven with only two victories in conference play, both at home. Their average margin of defeat in their three away conference games was of 14 points and the Wildcats beat two of those teams. With Northwestern playing their best football right now, the numbers like them to win big at home.

Cincinnati -3.5 at East Carolina

Another numerically inspired pick is the 3-and-7 Bearcats against the 2-and-8 Pirates. Neither team is any good frankly, but Cincy’s a complete squad and they’re at home. Really the only thing going for ECU is that they’re passing game can still toss it around but that probably won’t be enough.

The biggest edge that the Bearcats have is defensively where they’re allowing 10 fewer points per contest. It’s also their last home game of the year and will be their senior night. On a team with 11 starters who’ll be playing their last home game expect that to make a difference. Even if it’s too bad teams it should make a good bet.

Big game hunting

Michigan +7.5 at Wisconsin

This is a huge game for the undefeated Badgers who are the fifth-ranked team in the country and have a playoff seed in their control if they run the table. They’re also at home where they’re incredibly tough to beat.

Michigan’s played musical chairs at quarterback this season but seems to have found their man in the unspectacular Brandon Peters who allows Big Blue to play their grinding style. They’ve now won three in a row with him and the offense is back to scoring points going over 30 in the winning streak.

This is going to be a classic Big Ten grind it out game with two of the best run defenses in the country against two top 30 rushing attacks. The difference here could come down to Jim Harbaugh’s offensive play calling in clutch moments. Also, just remember this doesn’t have to be an upset the Wolverines just need to cover the 7.5 points. That seems very doable in what should be a nail-biter for two teams that are just too stylistically similar to blow each other out.

While Wisconsin is undefeated they haven’t been tested by a team of Michigan’s caliber all year. We’ll also have to see how a team that doesn’t have many stars – beyond their freshman running back – can handle the pressure of a potential playoff berth being just three games away.