Five Denver Nuggets draft predictions

Now that the 2015 NBA Draft has finally arrived, I’d just like to say, Merry Christmas! You see, for guys like me who don’t really have a stake in the religious aspect of traditional American holidays, the NBA Draft is my Christmas. This is the one day each year that I look forward to for months in advance. And when it finally arrives, I get the same tingling excitement as when I was a kid sneaking into the living room at dawn to see a bundle of shiny presents left by Santa Claus the night before.

In the weeks leading up to Christmas and on the actual day itself — or whatever other holiday it was you celebrated as a child — there are some things you expect, some you hope for and some you ultimately get that you really didn’t want. This same strange amalgam of expectations and results often applies to the NBA Draft. And though we won’t know what the Nuggets actually got until the night is over, we can formulate a pretty decent idea of what to expect. So without further ado, here are five bold predictions — based on all the reading and studying I’ve been doing leading up to tonight — about what will transpire for the Nuggets on draft night…

1. Ty Lawson will not be traded

I know this will come as a major surprise to pretty much anyone who’s payed any attention at all to the Nuggets or the NBA over the last few months, but I get the feeling Lawson could remain in Denver well into free agency, which begins on July 1. Because after months of rumors and speculation surrounding Lawson’s departure, all the Nuggets really want is to find the right trade.  They want to get what they feel they deserve for Lawson. And from everything I gather, that just hasn’t happened yet.

The most likely suitor for Lawson appears to be the Sacramento Kings. But with George Karl and Kings’ ownership on vastly different wavelengths, it’s difficult to see them suddenly coming to terms and facilitating a trade — which pretty much leaves teams behind the Nuggets in the lottery as candidates, and yet Lawson is likely worth more than just a mid to late first-round selection alone. If the Nuggets could package Lawson with someone like Wilson Chandler, a deal to move up then seems more logical. But at this point, rather than pulling the trigger on a trade they’ll later regret just to dispose of Lawson quickly the Nuggets might be better off assessing their options at the start of free agency when every team in the NBA is itching to reconstruct their roster.

2. The Nuggets will not draft Mario Hezonja

No player at the top of the lottery has had more press and support in Denver than Mario Hezonja. As I’ve said before, Nuggets fans are in love with this guy and have been since season’s end when draft analysis started heating up. And though I’d personally support drafting Hezonja at seven, I’m not so sure Tim Connelly and co. feel the same.

Over the last few months the Nuggets have made it crystal clear — especially with the hiring of Mike Malone — they value high character personnel. They want altruistic winners and athletes who will work hard on defense. Unfortunately, Hezonja just isn’t that guy. In fact, he’s close to the exact opposite. This isn’t to say Hezonja’s immutable or that he shouldn’t be classified as a “winner,” (obviously not the case) but he’s clearly someone who looks to get his while letting his teammates to the brunt of the work on defense.

Also, I’m not so sure his level of confidence should be considered an asset. Because while high self esteem is always advantageous for future professional athletes, when you’re comparing yourself to Kobe Bryant and saying things like Lionel Messi should be honored to watch you play basketball, you move abruptly from the “Healthy Self Esteem” category into “Purely Delusional, Possible Megalomaniac” territory. And I’m just not so sure that translates into making good decisions on the basketball court or in regular life.

3. The Nuggets will draft Justise Winslow

If the Nuggets keep the No. 7 selection and Justise Winslow is still on the board at the time of their pick, I’d be shocked if he’s not wearing a Nuggets cap shortly thereafter. Because unlike Hezonja, Winslow is exactly what the Nuggets have been saying they want for weeks now. He’s a high-IQ player and person who specializes in defense and has enough talent and dedication to one day contend for an All-Star team or two. Additionally, he’s exactly the type of player Mike Malone has been fantasizing publicly about ever since he got to Denver.

This of course isn’t taking into account the possibility of an unexpected draft-day slide at the top of the lottery — which happens just about every year. If someone like Emmanuel Mudiay or Jahlil Okafor were to slip, the Nuggets would be foolish to balk at the opportunity to select them. Internet projections are particularly fond of Mudiay falling to the Nuggets at seven and if that’s the case I wouldn’t be surprised to see Connelly select his future Ty Lawson replacement and subsequently trade back for another pick to perhaps then select Winslow at a later position.

4. The Nuggets won’t trade up

Piggybacking off my last point, I think it’s highly unlikely the Nuggets trade up on draft day. Why? Because they simply don’t have the ammunition. Ty Lawson and the seventh pick could perhaps entice the Knicks into some sort of deal for the fourth pick, but whom would the Nuggets then select that would be a monumental upgrade over someone they could likely have at seven? There are really two, maybe three players in this draft who I think are guaranteed studs and I highly doubt either will be available at four.

The other option for the Nuggets would be to deal Lawson to the Kings for the sixth pick, but if the Kings have any semblance of semi-functioning human intelligence (which is actually quite doubtful these days) they’d hold off in the hopes of Mudiay falling into their lap. Because Mudiay on a rookie deal is just a million times better than Lawson on any multimillion-dollar contract of any shape or form any day of the week. But, if Karl truly has as much power in the Kings’ front office as reports suggest, this could end up being the Nuggets’ most realistic trade option of the evening.

5. The Nuggets will trade back

The most likely scenario I envision on draft night is for the Nuggets to keep their selection at seven while also acquiring another lottery selection later on. The Nuggets have wanted to trade Ty Lawson for a while now and after bringing in players like Tyus Jones, Jerian Grant and Cameron Payne to workout in Denver, it’s clear they have their sights set on his replacement. The only problem: Not one of the point guards the Nuggets worked out are slated to be top-10 picks. Therefore the Nuggets really can’t justify taking a point guard at seven (aside from Mudiay) over higher profile players like the ones mentioned above.

As anyone who follows BSN wells knows, I’m a huge Payne fan and have been since Day 1. If the Nuggets are convinced they need to find Lawson’s replacement in this draft, Payne should undoubtedly be their target. How they’d go about obtaining him, however, would be interesting. Trading Lawson straight up for a late lottery selection isn’t great value on the surface, but if it were to deliver someone like Payne or even a non-point guard like Stanley Johnson, Myles Turner or Willie Cauley-Stein (who appears to be slipping in recent mocks due to injury concerns) then the Nuggets would surely come away from June 25’s festivities having completed an outstanding draft for the second year in a row.