First-round observations from a Broncos perspective

After months of rumors about what might happen, the first round of 2018 NFL draft is in the books. With the first 32 picks, the truth has slowly come out on what each team is trying to build and their different philosophies.

The trends we’ll soon see on tape, that’ll revolutionize the game, are initiated right here, when a team starts to add pieces on the first night of the draft.

That’s why we’re digging into to what was most telling from the first round, with a bit of an eye towards the Denver Broncos. 

Did Denver want a QB?

The Broncos were said to have Baker Mayfield ranked highly. Turns out the Cleveland Browns did, too, and it sounded like the New York Jets had zeroed in on him as well. So even if the Broncos liked the 2017 Heisman, he never would’ve dropped to them at five.

This offseason, Vance Joseph talked a decent amount about adapting to college prospects and how the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles were models in this. All that talk might’ve just been specifically about Mayfield.

I still believe Sam Darnold was atop their board, and the Jets snatched him up once Mayfield was gone. So while John Elway told us he had four quarterbacks with a first-round grade, ultimately only two were worth the fifth pick ahead of pass rusher Bradley Chubb. 

As much as Chubb was a win-now move and is seemingly a big endorsement of Joseph and Case Keenum, it doesn’t mean Elway wasn’t willing to pull the trigger on a QB after all. It just happens that the guys he wanted weren’t around anymore.  

Who knows when he’ll have a chance to draft a signal caller that high again?

The run game is stronger than ever

Yes, spread offenses have been more common in the NFL, with a lot more three-wideout sets. So when the Broncos talk about having an offense that’s about controlling the clock and focusing on the ground game, you might think they’re outdated. Maybe not so much, as this was quietly another big day for the running game, which has been a trend the last few years in the draft.

Not just running back Saquon Barkley going second overall—which is higher than any RB since Reggie Bush in 2006—but Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey are run-blockers first and foremost who were drafted in the top 10.

Two more running backs and two centers went in the first round. Those centers, Frank Ragnow and Billy Price, got selected because of what they do as run blockers, as well.

If a team like the New England Patriots has made running the ball a priority, by drafting a running back in the first round for the first time in 12 years, you know there’s something to this. The Pats also added a dominant run blocker in Isaiah Wynn, while sacrificing some length in pass protection.

Since the NFL’s gone to more three-receiver sets, nickel defenses are commonplace, which means running against those lighter personnel groupings is a key to winning nowadays. It’s why football is great, every trend has a counter-trend, and things never stay the same for long.

The trend should only continue, as there should be a run on more road-grading lineman and running backs in the top picks of round two.

Undervaluing safeties

This year we saw two consensus top-10 talents at safety dropped just outside that range in Derwin James and Minkah Fitzpatrick. The same happened a year ago with Indianapolis Colts star rookie Malik Hooker.

Aside from the New York Jets’ Todd Bowles, who drafted two safeties high in 2017—Bowles has made his career off of defenses with heavy safety packages—no one else seems to value the position as much. 

On the other hand, linebackers flew up the board this year with four in the top 22, and all athletic backers too. 

As the NFL keeps evolving and the heavy DB packages are exposed by better run games, the NFL still values athleticism on the back end, but it’s bigger versatile backers, rather than safeties, that are all the rage now. 

QBs aren’t the only ones impacted by the spread

While we saw four quarterbacks go in the top 10 for the first time in NFL history, wide receivers slipped quite a bit this year, which was to be expected in a slightly weaker class.

What’s interesting is that the NFL seems to be cooling a bit on wideouts, as the position hasn’t produced many great pros the last several drafts. Even with all the measurables you could ask for, receivers coming into the NFL these days are raw and having trouble producing, which is what’s scaring off teams at this point.

No one went in the top 20 this year and who knows if the run on running backs and offensive linemen will push more WRs further down the board tomorrow. It’s becoming really hard to produce ready-made receivers, and Denver found that a year ago with Carlos Henderson and Isaiah McKenzie. 

The future of the AFC

With Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger getting up in age, their reign atop the AFC might be coming to an end sooner rather than later. With that, there’s bound to be a generational change in the AFC at quarterback.

The conference just added three top-seven picks—Mayfield, Darnold and Josh Allen. That’s after the division added Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes a year ago. Add Lamar Jackson, who was drafted at the end of the round by the Baltimore Ravens, and that’s quite the group of young quarterbacks.

Any of those six guys drafted in round one the last two years will be interesting to watch in the future, as the conference will very soon be up for grabs.

From that perspective, the Broncos focus on defense first and adding a solid veteran quarterback in Case Keenum, might not be the worst strategy to make an impact in the AFC.