Finding the right draft fits for the Avalanche

As our written and video content about the upcoming NHL Draft carries on, today I’m going to delve into some of the fits for the Avalanche in the first round that I like the best.

Drafting isn’t so much as trying to find the best player overall but it’s more about finding the player that will best fit your organization. You need a well-rounded organization and an ability to develop a wide array of players but it starts at the draft table. That’s where identifying the players who fit your preferred traits and pulling the trigger on bringing them into your organization happens.

Even though this year it’s a virtual draft, the decisions will still be very real and I’m here to try to get a jump on some guys who may fit what they prefer, as well some players in other categories.

Best-case scenario picks:
-Kaiden Guhle/Braden Schneider, D, WHL (pick one, I’m fine with either)
-Rodion Amirov, F, Russia
-Lukas Reichel, F, DEL

I kind of cheated here going with both Guhle and Schneider. I don’t think either falls to Colorado because of the weak D class in the first round causing teams to inflate the value of Guhle and Schneider a bit. They’re different players but both would be an immediate and important boost to Colorado’s system.

Guhle is the better skater and has the higher two-way upside but Schneider is more of a bruiser who will bring a snarl and edge to his game that Colorado’s system is somehow always lacking.

Amirov is more of a classic Avs selection. He’s a high-wire offensive act with great feet and sublime hands. There are questions about how much of that skill will translate to the tighter checking confines of North American hockey but whoever drafts him is betting on skill, raw talent, potential. It’s purely an upside play. The Avs have also been one of the league’s most aggressive teams in Russia over the last few years.

Reichel’s value isn’t clearly as defined as the guys above, who are very obvious fits. Reichel is still physically immature and lacks the gamebreaking ability of Amirov, making his timeline the longest of any of these players. He’s a smart and effective player with a lot of subtlety in his game. He’s a good skater with high hockey IQ and just understands where to be and how to get there. I think he’ll go higher than 24 because his game is so projectable to the NHL.

Unlike Mikko Rantanen and Martin Kaut, I think both Amirov and Reichel would be better off staying in their current pro leagues rather than jumping straight to the AHL. Both have some physical growth to do and at least one more year in the KHL/DEL would be productive for each player.

There’s a good chance they’re available at 24 and they’re intriguing:
-Jacob Perreault, F, OHL
-Mavrik Bourque, F, QMJHL
-William Wallinder, D, Sweden

Three very different players here.

Perreault is a player with great skill but inconsistent process. He’s a good skater who can change it up on the fly to create a little chaos in transition and once he gets into scoring position, his lethal shot can finish the job. His ability as a shooter provides much of the intrigue surrounding him. Why he’s lower on the list despite scoring 39 goals in 57 games is because there are times where he just isn’t trying very hard. The compete level is a concern and why he’s not considered a top-15 lock. Based just on talent, he shouldn’t get close to Colorado’s pick.

Bourque is a much easier player to understand. He’s a crafty playmaker who consistently drives offense from the pivot and is a touch on the smaller side. He reads the ice well and puts in a consistently honest effort in all three zones, making him the rarity for a player his size. I worry about how much room for growth he has on his frame as he’s just about 5’10” and 180 pounds already. His upside may not be that of a top-six forward so if he ends up in more of a grinding role, worries about how much of a beating he can take are legitimate. If his skill takes him into the top six where he might be able to get away with playing a less physical style, he could be a steal of a pick. I feel like he’s one of those players where his success and failure in the NHL is a very thin line.

Wallinder is the only defender on this list. He combines great size (6’4″, 190 pounds) with great skating and an easy-to-spot upside. When he glides through the neutral zone with the puck on his stick, it’s easy to dream on him. When he’s making poor decisions and taking himself out of the play, it’s hard to see what his value is as he wastes such obvious natural gifts. That’s the rub with Wallinder. How well can he read the game as he gets into the higher levels and can his hockey IQ grow as the rest of his game does? If he’s a sound decision maker in the NHL, he could have a very long and productive career. If he continues to disappear for long stretches, he may not even make the NHL. There’s a lot of room in between those two outcomes and that’s what makes him such an intriguing player at this stage of the draft.

Wild cards with major question marks:
-Hendrix Lapierre, F, QMJHL
-Noel Gunler, F, Sweden

These are the two guys who maybe best define “boom or bust” in this year’s draft. Lapierre dealt with what everyone thought was a concussion problem throughout the year but it turned out to be a neck issue that was causing his issues. When healthy, Lapierre flashes the talent of a top-10 selection and if he can get past the medical red flags, he shouldn’t be selected much beyond that range. The medical rechecks will be vital to him come draft day, however, and if they scare a few teams off, he could be there at 24 for Colorado. I would file this away as unlikely for now but certainly a story to watch come draft day.

Gunler has more of a “does he give a damn?” problem than a medical issue like Lapierre. They end up in the same place, however, as Gunler is seen as one of the draft’s most tantalizing offensive talents available. The heart and effort are absolutely in question, however, as he doesn’t give an honest day’s work all the time and seems uninterested in contact far too often for a player who is 6’2″. Pre-draft comparisons to Roope Hintz make it easier to believe in the dream but the graveyard of failed careers of skilled forwards who didn’t have enough heart to play the way the NHL demands is significant.

Players like Lapierre and Gunler are exciting in part because they’re such a mystery on draft day but the frequency of failures of these picks make them equally a danger. Proceed with major caution.

Player other people love whom I struggle with:
-Jan Mysak, F, OHL

A lot of folks I respect a great deal love Mysak’s game. He exploded when he left Europe and came to the OHL as he found a cozy home right away in Hamilton. The opinions on him vary greatly as some see a high-end offensive contributor who could be a top-six stalwart in the NHL and others see him as I do – a talented forward who lets the game come to him and sometimes that goes really well and other times it means you don’t notice him all night. Some have argued it’s just his style, that he’s a lay-and-wait predator. I’m less of a believer in that and more of a believer in Mysak just not being a high-end player. I wouldn’t take him in the first round. Others think he’s a top-15 talent.

Player who is highly-touted but I remain uncomfortable with and could go either way:
-Dylan Holloway, F, NCAA

A Tony Granato-coached team loaded with talent wildly underachieves and nobody understands how he could do so little with so much? Where have Avs fans heard this story before? Dylan Holloway was caught in the disastrous Wisconsin Badgers season last year and could pay the price for it after being a potential top-10 selection going into the season. Holloway has all the physical attributes you’re looking for. He’s a good skater with decent size and plays with an edge and does a little of everything from the center spot. So what’s the problem? That’s the question. His offensive upside is in doubt and while he has a skill set that should translate, a team could be using a first-round pick on a guy who ends up in their bottom six and as a wing. If he lives up to the potential of being a top-six center, well, that was a good decision. A GM’s job could very well hinge on where Holloway lands on that spectrum.