Fair expectations for Rockies internal improvement

DENVER – In order for a resurgent rebound in 2020, the Colorado Rockies should – under no circumstances – rely solely upon internal improvement.

While they must be aggressive in the offseason, searching the world over for anyone and everyone who might be able to help them fill out the roster in a way that doesn’t let down the talent at the team’s core, increasing their win total 20 or more games to make the playoffs next season cannot happen alone from talent currently on the roster or from within the organization.

In 2019, the production from role players was unacceptable; this is the fault of those players and the GM who brought them into the organization. Even a coaching staff that got so much out of so many unknowns in 2017 and 2018 must bear some responsibility when such a large group of guys play so far beneath their career numbers.

But we must also take a good long look at that young core to have a fair understanding of who the Rockies are, what they need, and why expecting to get much more production next year out of players already wearing purple isn’t absurd. In fact, it would be quite strange, given the facts, to believe anything else.

In order to set the stage for the future, keep this in mind: Colorado’s core of 14 players average only 26.5 years.

We isolated our selection of players based on our projections that they will, assuming health and that they are still on the squad, be logging starters minutes throughout all of next season.

Daniel Murphy is an in-between type of player. He seems the most likely candidate to be traded and could easily end up in a lesser role if he can’t bounce back, but he could also end up being the Rockies primary first baseman. If included in the core, the average age of the 15 increases to 26.8 years old.

Whether it is as a utility man or sliding into a starting role, we suspect Garrett Hampson has a good chance to play more innings than Murphy next season.

And this group of players that the team is most committed to range from solid to elite on the field:

The Elite

Trevor Story – 26 years old

Nolan Arenado – 28 years old 

Here we have two players in their primes who are trending upward and focused on getting better with clear areas in their game that can improve. Both have eyes set on swinging at two-strike pitches out of the zone less often, thereby cutting down on the strikeouts and raising the walk rate.

Story has improved on defense each of his years in MLB, getting snubbed for a Gold Glove nomination last season and looking like he might actually win his first after this year’s effort. Arenado’s reputation in this department is well known.

Story also brings a well-above average speed element to the game.

So it is worth re-stating after a 71-win season when trying to look forward that the Rockies begin their roster with two of the best all-around players in the game who should remain so and potentially even get better over the next few years.

The Backbone

German Marquez – 24 years old

It’s easy to forget that Marquez is still only 24-years old considering he has already pitched 552.2 innings in his MLB career and amassed 567 big-league punch-outs.

He wasn’t nearly as good in 2019 as he was in 2018, but it’s hard to argue a player his age is trending downward rather than still putting it all together.

Even if you don’t project him to improve as he enters into his physical prime with all this experience, we have a three-year sample size with Marquez where he has been consistently above average.

His career 4.32 ERA won’t look great to the casual observer, but park-adjusted OPS+ has him at 115 or roughly 15 percent better than league average, with each of his three seasons ranking above the average.

David Dahl – 25 years old

At this point, he’s no secret; when on the field, David Dahl is an All-Star.

He has also now played in parts of four different MLB seasons, accruing 921 plate appearances. Like Marquez, his knowledge and physicality should be still approaching the top of the bell curve.

Jon Gray – 27 years old

Scott Oberg – 29 years old

In Gray and Oberg, the Rockies have a couple of players who may be right at, or maybe just still just slightly in front of that curve.

Injuries unrelated to their arms have actually prevented (and protected) some additional wear and tear on both and each can stand as an example of how to battle the difficulties of Coors Field in the short and long term.

Gray’s bounce-back from a guy who got demoted and eventually left off the postseason roster to the steadiest rock in the rotation can serve as inspiration to Kyle Freeland, Jeff Hoffman, and Peter Lambert.

Oberg’s long, plodding journey from forgotten prospect to looking lost at the Bigs, to barely finding a footing, to closing out the Wild Card game, to putting up one of the best relief seasons in franchise history can serve as inspiration to everyone.

Charlie Blackmon – 33 years old

Ah, yes. The old man of the core.

He may have lost a step. And the defense in right field this season was harsh at times.

But he is still one of the 20 best hitters in the world.

The Blood and Muscle

Ryan McMahon – 24 years old

Carlos Estevez – 26 years old

Jairo Diaz – 28 years old

These three players just took arguably the hardest step to take in baseball; going from being a guy who has put on a Major League jersey, to being a Major Leaguer.

Estevez had probably already taken that step but after a lost 2018, he needed to re-establish himself.

McMahon has always had high expectations and there have been plenty of fair questions about whether his raw talent would ever end up producing numbers at the highest level. But he broke out after the All-Star break, was one of the Rockies best run producers over the course of the whole season, showed he can play good-to-great defense at second base, and remained remarkably clutch.

Diaz was a total non-factor coming into the season. He might be something. He could have been nothing. Going into 2020, he is the presumptive setup man for Oberg.

Garrett Hampson – 24 years old

Raimel Tapia – 25 years old

If your favorite super hero is The Flash, watching Hampson and Tapia race around the diamond in August and September must have been a blast.

Expectations were mixed on both coming into the season and to some degree still are. Tapia got some consistent playing time and was able to transition that into consistent contact at the plate which resulted in consistent base hits. Finally, his skill set from the minors was playing in the show.

He was also making steady progress on defense before an ill-timed injury more or less ended his season on a sour note.

It does look like the Rockies are very seriously considering him as a starter moving forward and the comments coming from coaches and management on Tapia have been increasingly glowing.

The organization has always been in love with Hampson and everything he can do. And it all started to show with his hot sprint to the finish line. His re-tooled game appears to be the source of his renaissance but sadly there may just not have been quite enough time left for him to prove that this was all for real.

With these two, though, the Rockies know they have some extraordinary athletes who are still very much coming into their own.

Tony Wolters – 27 years old

Upward trend on offense and defense? Check. Right in the middle of his prime? Check. Tons of experience for his age and position? Check. Most important hit in the last decade of the franchise? You get the idea.

He may not be the guy most people tune into games to see, but he is a guy that every single member of the coaching staff, front office, and clubhouse can count on.

Kyle Freeland – 26 years old

The biggest question mark of the group right now. How far away one year ago feels.

Freeland needs to be a vital part of the team next season to help get it all back on track… but that’s the subject for plenty of future conversations.

The High-End Potential

Peter Lambert – 22 years old

Sam Hilliard – 25 years old

There’s a lot more shine on Hilliard than Lambert at the moment. But this part of the reason we are highlighting the youth movement for the Rockies despite most of these players having outgrown the prospect label.

Lambert was thrown into the fire in 2019 due to some extreme circumstances and while he definitely got burned he learned a lot and is an intriguing candidate to breakout next year.

Hilliard burst onto the scene with a September that had a lot of folks asking, “where did this guy come from?” Taking big-time lefties Hyung-Jin Ryu and Josh Hader deep down the stretch, there are already calls for him to leapfrog a few guys and get a starting gig out of the gate.

That may be a bit premature, though a really strong Spring Training could make things interesting.

The sky really is the limit for this kid who has all the things you can’t teach and most of the things you can.

Antonio Senzatela – 24 years old

It’s been far more of a roller coaster for Senzatela, but many of the same points worth remembering about Marquez apply to him as well.

The surface numbers don’t look great. The park-adjusted numbers look much better. And at such a young age he has already pitched 349.2 innings sprinkled over three seasons both as a starter and reliever.

He even has postseason experience, tossing five innings against the Brewers in the 2018 NLDS and surrendering just two runs on a homer by NL MVP Christian Yelich.

He still hasn’t proven to be consistently reliable for the Rockies. But it is easy to forget that he was rushed to the level, has had to do a lot of learning and adjusting on the job, and he could be just now reaching MLB rather than finding a way to make sure he sticks this time.

Under the Radar

Dom Nunez – 24 years old

Ryan Castellani – 23 yearsold

Chi Chi Gonzalez – 27 years old

Tim Melville – 29 years old

Chad Bettis – 30 years old

All of these guys have intriguing upside and none is being counted upon as a major factor. Basically, they are all in the shoes of Jairo Díaz at this time one year ago.

The Issue

Now we’ve arrived at the part of the team that tends to get the most attention. And there’s good reason why.

Colorado put $60MM of their budget into these five players and that figure increases to $69.5MM in 2020 salaries when including buyouts.

It is likely none would be on the roster if this weren’t the case, given their recent results.

Daniel Murphy – 34 years old

Bryan Shaw – 31 years old

Jake McGee – 33 years old

Wade Davis – 34 years old

Ian Desmond – 34 years old

These players are probably going to stick around and if they are on the roster as spring ball gets underway in 2020, it isn’t the end of the world for the Rockies… they just absolutely have to play less. Collectively, way less.

And not just because of their own lack of production. As we have already shown, the progress of players like Dahl, Oberg, McMahon, Tapia, Hampson, Hilliard, Diaz, and Estevez should make it easy to make this transition.

There were much bigger question marks on all of these guys before the season started but many of those have been answered. Now it’s time for the veterans to go looking for some answers or end up on the outside looking in.

They can come back with a similar roster, but they can’t play it the same way.

If baseball teaches us nothing else, it’s that every season is different and things never work out exactly how you expect them to. Some of these guys might actually find it again. Some of the younger players will take steps back because progress isn’t linear. Injuries always have a way of messing with the best laid plans.

The Rockies should be shopping these five players with vigor from now until the start of Spring Training but if they can’t find any takers and they don’t make more than a handful of low-budget moves in the off season it doesn’t necessarily spell doom.

First, there are a handful of other avenues to consider like potentially trading a top prospect for some outside pitching help.

But to start, you have to at the very least admit that the Colorado Rockies roster begins with an impressive collection of talented and experienced ballplayers, almost all of whom are on the upward trajectory and many of whom powered this club to back-to-back postseason appearances.

Now… it’s time to go to work on the parts outside the core.