Expectations and projections for Javonte Williams with the Broncos in 2021

If actions speak louder than words, well, then it’s hard to quantify just how big of a fan George Paton is of Denver Broncos’ new running back Javonte Williams.

Hours after drafting the North Carolina back, Paton described him as “special,” “incredible” and a “gift player.”

“If you’ve watched any clips of him, he’s probably the most physical runner in the last couple of years,” Paton added.

Paton’s actions went a step further than his words. Not only did the Broncos use a second-round pick on the gifted runner, they traded up five spots in order to make it happen.

So just how sky-high should the expectations be for the rookie running back in 2021?

Projections for 2021: 825 rushing yards; 4.75 yards per carry; 250 receiving yards; 8 total touchdowns

Javonte Williams’ talent won’t be what defines him in 2021. It’ll be the opportunities he receives.

With Melvin Gordon on the roster, Denver didn’t need to make another significant investment at the position this year. But with 2021 being Gordon’s final year under contract, Williams provides an incredibly strong No. 2 punch this season and will step into the No. 1 role next year, if not sooner, if Gordon goes to another team after this season.

Although Williams will have to share the workload this year with the Pro Bowl running back, he actually believes it will help him.

“I think that it will be a huge part of me staying healthy,” Williams said about splitting the carries with Gordon in Denver’s backfield. “I didn’t play as much as some other top running backs played. Me staying fresh is going to be a big part of it.”

The 21-year old is wise beyond his years. Instead of being focused on taking as many reps as possible to start his career, he knows longevity, especially as a rookie, will be key. In fact, plenty of second-round backs have had a tremendous amount of success their rookie seasons. But a lot of that success has come in the second half of the year—proving Williams’ point.

Second-round running backs D’Andre Swift (2020), Jonathan Taylor (2020), Miles Sanders (2019), Nick Chubb (2018), Joe Mixon (2017) and Derrick Henry (2016) all had significantly more success in the second half of their rookie seasons.

In the first half of Swift’s rookie season last year, he averaged 26.6 rushing yards per game. In the second half of the season, he doubled that, dropping 55.8 yards a game.

With the Colts, Taylor followed Swift’s path. The first half of the season, Taylor rushed for 52 yards per game. The second half of the year, he scampered for 107.7 yards per contest.

Sanders averaged 36.8 yards on the ground his first eight games. He nearly doubled it the second half of the season, rushing for 65.5 yards per game.

In the first half of their respective rookie seasons, Chubb averaged 39.8 yards per game, Henry averaged 23 yards per game and Mixon averaged 36.1 yards per game. However, in the second half of their rookie years, Chubb dropped 84.8 yards per game, Henry trotted for 42.1 yards per game and Mixon scampered for 53.3 yards per game.

All of those second-round backs exploded in the second half of their rookie seasons. That could very well be in store for Williams.

In fact, the 5-foot-10, 220-pound back is often compared to former second-round pick Nick Chubb for their similar stature, traits and talent.

“Nick Chubb is a great player, so if I’m getting that comparison, then I’m doing something right,” Williams said. “I do hear that a lot.”

The only year Nick Chubb—Bradley Chubb’s cousin—didn’t make the Pro Bowl was his rookie season. As a rookie, Chubb rushed for 996 yards and had 10 total touchdowns. If Williams’ rookie year is anywhere in that ballpark, it would be wildly successful.

Along with adjusting to the NFL the first half of the season, there’s another significant reason why Williams could take off during the second half of the year.

In three of Gordon’s six seasons in the NFL, he has missed multiple games in the back half of a season. If that happens in 2021, Williams’ workload will significantly increase during those games.

With Gordon and Williams as one of the stronger one-two punches in the NFL, the Broncos should rack up over 2,000 rushing yards as a team. Last year that would have put them in the top 11 in the league. Denver’s two top backs should account for the bulk of that, allowing Williams to flirt with 1,000 yards as a rookie.

If the workload is split close to 50-50 throughout the entire season, it will be hard for Williams to hit 1,000 yards. However, if he takes over as the top back the second half of the season, 1,000 yards will absolutely be within reach.

In his final year at North Carolina, Williams split carries evenly with fellow draft pick Michael Carter and was still able to top 1,100 yards on the ground and 19 touchdowns in just 11 games while averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per carry. Of course, the NFL will present a much steeper challenge. But the talent is clearly there.

Opportunity, not skill, will set the ceiling for the talented running back his rookie season.