Examining the QB options: Would Sam Darnold be worth a trade?

Eighth in a series

PREVIOUS ENTRIES: Nick Foles | Marcus Mariota | Andy Dalton | Tyrod Taylor | Alex Smith | Ryan Fitzpatrick | Mitchell Trubisky

SAM DARNOLD, NEW YORK JETS

• AGE AT START OF 2021 SEASON: 24
• EXPERIENCE: 4th year

THE HIGHS: There were flashes for Darnold as a rookie. More than half of his career games with at least a 100.0 passer rating came in that 2018 campaign. His stats weren’t dazzling, but he showed enough to where the Jets sought a QB guru in their next coach, hiring Adam Gase, who most prominently worked with Peyton Manning in Denver.

The Gase-Darnold pairing failed to launch. However, Darnold enjoyed a brilliant three weeks in November 2019, throwing seven touchdown passes against one interception. The Jets scored 34 points in each of those games, winning them all. At that moment, you didn’t have to squint to see a bright future for Darnold.

That changed in 2020, but there was one individual high point: a 46-yard touchdown run against the Broncos in Week 4. The jaunt began when Darnold dodged a blitzing Alexander Johnson and made Justin Simmons miss a tackle just past midfield. Then, Darnold sprinted through a befuddled defense for the unlikeliest of scores.

The run severed as a reminder that Darnold, despite recent struggles, is an excellent athlete.

THE LOWS: “And then 14 — has mono — and will be out for this game, so Trevor [Siemian] will be starting, and Luke Falk will get elevated at some point and be the backup. So, that would be that.” — Gase, Sept. 12, 2019

Darnold’s first season with the Jets was promising, if unspectacular. But once Gase announced prior to a Week 2 game in 2109 that Darnold had contracted mononucleosis, sending him to the bench for three games. Siemian and Luke Falk filled in; Siemian suffered a season-ending injury and Falk was so bad that he was waived once Darnold returned; Falk now plays for the Saskatchewan Roughriders of the Canadian football League.

Darnold threw eight interceptions in his first three games after returning, including four in a Monday night debacle against New England that saw the Jets shut out and Darnold post a passer rating of 3.6 — a GPA you might want, but a putrid number for a rating.

FOUR-YEAR FORM (2017-20)

(Rankings are among 62 quarterbacks with at least 250 total plays — attempts, rushes and times sacked — over the past four years.)

• PASSER RATING: 78.6, 54th
• YARDS PER ATTEMPT: 6.64, 43rd
• COMPLETION PERCENTAGE: 59,8, 51st
• TOUCHDOWN-PASS RATE: One every 27.09 attempts, 43rd
• SACK RATE: One every 13.44 pass plays, 44th
• INTERCEPTION RATE: One every 31.26 attempts, 54th
• FUMBLE RATE: One every 71.55 plays, 36th
• BALL LOSS RATE (INTERCEPTIONS + FUMBLES): One every 24.25 plays, 48th

WHAT STANDS OUT: The Jets offense wasn’t great with Darnold at the wheel the last three seasons, and Darnold’s statistical ledger reflects this; he ranked in the NFL’s bottom third in seven of the afore-mentioned eight metrics.

But it was often non-existent without him.

In the past three seasons, the Jets averaged a modest 18.9 points per game in Darnold’s 38 starts. Not great. But they averaged 5.6 fewer points per game without Darnold — just 13.3, including single-digit tallies in half of the 10 contests.

The Jets were also 0-10 since 2018 in games started by quarterbacks other than Darnold.

WHY HE COULD BE A FIT: Darnold’s pro-style skill set and arm strength are schematic fits for almost any offense, including that of the Broncos. He doesn’t turn 24 until the spring, so he’s young enough to be perceived as a quarterback with plenty of potential.

WHY HE WOULDN’T BE: The price tag could be more than the Broncos are willing to pay for a quarterback who wouldn’t be handed the keys. It wouldn’t be the No. 9 overall pick, but there could be a combination involved.

“When you look at the teams picking 8, 9, and 12, when you lok at Carolina, you look at Denver, you look at San Francisco, I think all three of those teams could make sense as trade partners for Sam Darnold if they decided togo that route,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said in a conference call with media Tuesday.

“I know people say, ‘Well, there’s no way they’re trading a top 12 pick for Sam.’ No, but I think there’s a way you could work something out there where you attach Sam with another pick.”

Granted, much can be made of the lack of support Darnold received — especially last year. During that 2-14 disaster of a season, the Jets’ best skill-position players other than Darnold were possession receiver Jamison Crowder and 37-year-old running back Frank Gore, who has reached the “audience has become more selective” point of his career at which Spinal Tap arrived during the band’s 1982 “Smell the Glove” tour.

Furthermore, success stories among first-round quarterbacks who didn’t make it to their fourth season with the club with whom they made their regular-season debuts are hard to find.

Consider this: There have been 120 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the common-draft era, which began in 1967. If traded, Darnold would become the 20th of that group who were on a team different from the one with which they made their debut by the start of their fourth season.

• Dwayne Haskins
• Josh Rosen
• Paxton Lynch
• Johnny Manziel
• Brandon Weeden
• JaMarcus Russell
• Brady Quinn
• Jay Cutler
• Cade McNown
• Ryan Leaf
• Jim Druckenmiller
• Heath Shuler
• Tommy Maddox
• Todd Marinovich
• Art Schlichter
• Steve Pisarkiewicz
• Jerry Tagge
• John Reaves
• Marty Domres

Of those 19 quarterbacks, just one — Cutler — became a viable long-term starter. But his trade was under extenuating circumstances tied to then-Broncos coach Josh McDaniels. Cutler was a Pro Bowler the season before; he wasn’t dealt because he wasn’t good enough.

Maybe Darnold can become like Cutler. But the outcomes for the other 18 quarterbacks don’t offer much reason for optimism.

HOW THE BRONCOS MIGHT GET HIM: Via trade. Trading the No. 9 overall pick would be folly. However, Darnold could likely be acquired in a trade that involves an exchange of choices that sends the equivalent of a pick from late in Round 1 or early in Round 2.

Still, if the Jets do deal Darnold — don’t bet on the Broncos being the team that snares him, mainly because giving Darnold the job would be a curious move, since across the board, he isn’t better than Lock.

“If you’re going to make a move for Sam Darnold. I don’t think he’s the bridge,” Jeremiah said. “I think you’re hoping he’s the building. That’s what you’re doing if you make that move.”

There’s a better chance of Lock being “the building” for the Broncos than Darnold.