Examining the Denver Nuggets endless amount of frontcourt pairings

 

The current makeup of the Denver Nuggets roster has always looked slightly odd on paper.

With four true centers in Jusuf Nurkic, Nikola Jokic, Joffrey Lauvergne and J.J. Hickson and two other frontcourt players in Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur that were sure to demand playing time, it was clear after Summer League and the preseason that first-year coach Michael Malone had his hands full divvying up minutes.

Then the injuries struck.

Nurkic took longer than expected to recover from offseason knee surgery and was held out through the first 33 games of the season. Lauvergne was in-and-out of the lineup with a lower back injury — missing 13 consecutive games in November. And Jokic and Arthur both battled through ailments, missing a handful of games early in the year.

The lineup flux has resulted in Malone’s rotation being in utter chaos for the majority of the season. In fact, the Nuggets most used lineup is still the Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris, Danilo Gallinari, Faried and Hickson unit — which has only played 121 minutes together over nine games and hasn’t been used since Nov. 20th. Somehow we’re nearing the halfway point in the year and Malone still hasn’t been able to nail down a consistent and reliable rotation.

For comparison’s sake the Detroit Pistons, the picture of health this NBA this season, have seen their starting lineup of Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Morris and Andre Drummond play a league leading 718 minutes together this season. The next highest used lineup in the league is the New York Knicks starting five, who have played 470 minutes together. That’s just how healthy (and lucky) Detroit has been, as opposed to the Nuggets.

With the six-man frontcourt unit finally healthy in Denver, let’s dive into some of the potential combinations that we could see throughout the remainder of the season. These combos will be based on how they’ve done this year using a small sample size, and how they could potentially develop in the coming months.

Arthur-Jokic

Season Stats (NBA.com): 371 minutes, 106.4 Offensive Rating, 96.9 Deffensive Rating, 9.5 Net Rating (OffRtg minus DefRtg)

This combo has actually played the most minutes out of any duo and the reason for that is simply health. With Faried out the past two games, Jokic and Arthur started at Minnesota and Memphis and played really well together. In 34 minutes over those two games, they accumulated a 125.8 OffRtg and 99.0 DefRtg when they shared the court. On the season they’ve obviously regressed a bit from those numbers to a 9.5 NetRtg, but why the two are successful together lies in the film.

On offense the two compliment each other well. Jokic has great vision that allows him to operate from the high post and Arthur has enough gravity from mid-range, where he hits 45.7 percent on his jumpers, to keep the defense honest. With Arthur, you also have a poised veteran with a high IQ that knows how to conduct himself in the half court.

On defense, Arthur’s been arguably Denver’s best help side and pick-and-roll defender for two years, and by pairing him with Jokic, the sturdy Arthur can make up for the 20-year-old’s shortcomings on defense. If Jokic gets burned in the pick-and-roll, which has happened frequently this season, Arthur offers the best option on the roster as a help defender.

Swap out Jokic for Nurkic and you have another frontcourt which could give opposing offenses trouble. It would be one of Denver’s most interesting pairings from a defensive standpoint and the potential they have is already showing this season. In just 36 minutes this year the Arthur-Nurkic combo has produced a 97.8 DefRtg, slightly up from the 87.6 rating last season.

Much like the Arthur-Jokic combo these two provide spacing in their own way. Arthur can draw defenses out with his shooting and defenses having to account for a rolling Nurkic down the lane or posted up on the block. As a result the lane could be wide open for Mudiay drives and dishes.

Faried-Nurkic

Season Stats (2014-15): 535 minutes, 104.3 OffRtg, 99.7 DefRtg, 4.6 NetRtg

We don’t have a ton of data on this combo simply because Nurkic has only played in five games this season and Faried was out for two of those. Last year they played 535 minutes together and started the majority of the second half of the season together in the frontcourt.

What this duo does well is rebound. Last season they grabbed 52.5 percent of the total rebounds available and 78.3 percent of their defensive rebound chances. This season in just six minutes spent on the floor together that two-man combo is already showing last year’s numbers weren’t a fluke.

Nurkic is already one of the strongest players in the league. He’s got the ability to toss defenders out of the way while pursuing rebounds, and is immovable if he puts in the effort to get position under the basket.

Heading into this season with a defensive-minded coach, the hope was Faried would finally develop into the defender he seemingly could be. He’s a hyper-athletic forward who should be able to bounce back and forth between the four and the five and maybe Malone could flip the switch for him on that end. So far this season, that hasn’t happened. Denver is 9.7 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the bench, and he’s allowing the opposition to shoot 60 percent inside of six feet when he’s the closest defender.

That’s where Nurkic comes in, as the Bosnian Beast can cover for some of Faried’s shortcomings defensively. Nurkic has already accumulated an 85.9 DefRtg this season and Denver is more than 20 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the floor. Yet, even his defensive prowess can’t convert Faried into a stone cold defensive stopper. Last season the top three lineups that featured both Nurkic and Faried still gave up nearly 106 points per 100 possessions. If you simply subbed out Faried for anyone on the roster last season, that number shot downwards into the low 90’s and sometimes into the 80’s.

Rebounding will be this combo’s strong suit as they year goes on, but hopefully in his second year Nurkic can continue to grow as a rim protector and cover for more of his teammates mistakes.

Faried-Jokic

Season Stats: 143 minutes, 95.1 OffRtg, 104.3 DefRtg, -9.2 NetRtg

This combo has already logged 143 minutes together and like you would have probably guessed their biggest struggles come on the defensive end. Together they have a 104.3 DefRtg and still aren’t scoring well at just 95.1 points per 100 possessions; although that offensive ineptitude originates largely from Denver’s inability to manufacture much of an efficient offense with any lineup that’s thrown together.

This duo has potential offensively, especially with Jokic’s versatility and ability to pass the ball. Jokic has had some big assist games already this season including: nine in 23 minutes against Charlotte and five each against San Antonio and the Lakers in December. He’s also developing somewhat of a chemistry with Faried offensively, giving the ball to the Manimal in places where he is successful.

For all of Faried’s shortcomings he can still be an efficient offensive player if he sticks to what he does well. Faried is still scoring above one point per possession in transition, on cuts to the basket and when he’s the “roll man” in pick-and-roll situations. If Faried sticks to those things on offense and stays away from: post ups, jumpers and trying to score in isolation situations, he can still be effective.

Jokic seems to be on to Faried’s strengths and weaknesses, and usually puts him in spots to succeed on offense, but then again, these two could be such a sieve defensively that their offensive potential isn’t quite worth it.

Gallinari-Nurkic

When pairing Gallinari with one of Denver’s bigs, Malone will have to think of Gallinari’s shortcomings on defense, like he thinks of Faried’s. The top two lineups used by the Nuggets this season which feature Gallinari at the four have been wildly successful — on offense. They average 114.35 points per 100 possessions, which would top the Warriors for the most efficient offense in the league.

However, on defense those lineups surrender an average of 115 points per 100 posessions, which would easily rank as worst in the league. If you paired Gallinari in the frontcourt with a rim defender like Nurkic, you may be able to partially shore up those defensive numbers.

Malone’s only gone to Gallinari at the four this season approximately 35 percent of the time, down from 53.2 percent last season, according to Nylon Calculus’ playing time estimates by percentage. But those numbers may be trending upwards as Gallo closed out the Charlotte game as the team’s power forward.

“Gallo is one of the elite small forwards in the NBA and he’s a guy who gives us versatility when we play small and can put him at the power forward position,” Malone said after the Hornets game. “In the second half (against Charlotte), the adjustment we made was to go small instead of playing two bigs. We switched off of pick-and-rolls and that was effective for us.”

Here against the Hornets, the threat of Nurkic rumbling down the the lane forces forces Jeremy Lamb to take a step towards the big man and bump him. That’s all the room Gallo needs to get off his shot.

Here, Denver runs a quick cross screen for Gallo freeing him up for a look he should have converted on. A similar action could be run with Nurkic setting the screen.

Malone’s hesitancy to use Gallo in the frontcourt up to his point may be due to a multitude of circumstances: how banged up he’s been this year, Denver’s plethora of big men, or because besides Darrell Arthur, who’s a good defender but not exactly your classic rim protector, there hasn’t been a good defensive five for him to play alongside. With Nurkic back and close to 100 percent, we could see that duo together often going forward.

If Nurkic can hold them together on defense, this pairing could flourish. Combine Gallinari’s ability to spread the floor with Nurkic positioned on the block and instantly the lane opens for Mudiay penetrations. Gallinari is also ranked No. 2 league-wide in PPP in post up situations, this year at 1.17, among players with at least 40 post ups. The opportunity to get Gallo the ball on the block more, without a ton of bodies occupying the paint, could enhance the Nuggets offense even further if they can go to it regularly.

Lauvergne – Nurkic

It’s difficult identifying what combination works well with Lauvergne because he’s the odd man out as the third center behind Nurkic and Jokic. The one thing Lauvergne does have going for him is out of the three centers (besides Hickson) he has the most ability to play minutes at the four. Lauvergne’s not going to be able to stay with true small ball power forwards, but could hang with the less perimeter-inclined ones.

If Malone does plan to experiment with Lauvergne at the four, which he’s played 26.7 percent of the time this year, according to Nylon Calculus, it makes the most sense to play him alongside Nurkic. Lauvergne is shooting 41.7 percent from three this year which can provide the spacing needed to compensate for the paint-tied Nurkic. Having the Bosnian behind him will also erase some of his mistakes on defense.

If Malone opts to use Lauvergne strictly at center, as he’s done for the most part since Nurkic has been back in the lineup, his minutes will suffer. After beginning the year in the starting lineup, and playing well, Lauvergne battled a back injury, was re-inserted into the starting five, and then relinquished to the end of the bench where he’s averaged just 11 minutes per game with Nurkic back.

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The Nuggets clearly are log jammed at the four and five spots, which isn’t the worst thing for a team still figuring themselves out. With a fully healthy roster for the first time all year, Malone can finally develop some clarity in his rotations and determine what frontcourt combinations he wants to stick with going forward.