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This is both a preview of the Broncos potential first-round selection and an educated guess at how their board looks going into the 2018 NFL Draft.
You’ll notice we have some significant omissions in quarterbacks Josh Allen and running back Saquon Barkley.
Why is that? Well, if the Broncos really had interest in all of the top-four QBs, Barkley and Bradley Chubb, then there’d be no reason to ever consider a trade down. After all, one of those six players would be guaranteed to be around at their pick. The two Josh’s—Allen and Josh Rosen—are most likely to drop to them, and yet Denver considering a trade down seems very real.
All indications are that the Broncos love Baker Mayfield and they love Bradley Chubb. My guess is, if he were to drop, they’re fans of Sam Darnold’s too. After that, they like the next tier of players but aren’t in love with anyone, which is why they’d be willing to trade down.
John Elway wants to win sooner rather than later, and not having to develop a quarterback who he isn’t sold on, allows him to do that.
Since trading down is feeling like a much more realistic possibility in Denver now, we’re also running you through some trade-down options in the first, focusing on the Buffalo Bills trade package that would give the Broncos picks 12 and 22.
The top of the Broncos’ board
Sam Darnold, QB, USC
Darnold’s been our top prospect since we saw him live back in November and is likely to go in the top three picks. Though, there’s a slim chance teams get cute at the top and let him slip.
The 20-year-old QB has tons of talent, with an ideal frame and plenty of athleticism. Darnold showed lots of improvement this season, as he had to carry a greater load offensively. His ability to throw the ball accurately in tight windows, especially deep, is quite enticing. Darnold can operate well within the pocket, or throw it on the move, which is his big calling card.
He’s the safe bet as to who sits atop the Broncos draft board. If he were to miraculously drop to the fifth pick, that would be a huge win for the Orange & Blue.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
You’d be hard-pressed to find a prospect in the Elway era who’s been vetted more thoroughly than Mayfield—who we analyzed in depth here.
The offensive system he played in at OU will require some major adjustments. However, Mayfield isn’t your typical spread quarterback either, as he’s solid within the pocket, shows a fairly high IQ. His arm strength is good enough, while his footwork and ability to throw with anticipation are really promising.
Compare him to other spread quarterbacks like Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson, or Mitch Trubisky, and he’s right at their level, if not better. His size doesn’t seem to concern the Broncos or the New York Jets—who seem to be locked into the reigning Heisman.
If he’s around, the Broncos will run to the podium and select him, making the 2018 offseason incredibly entertaining.
Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State
Chubb is the one non-quarterback option that seems to have caught the Broncos eye, and if he’s around, it’ll be hard to accept any sort of trade-down package.
He’s a really well-rounded edge rusher, plays with great strength at the point of attack and can rush the passer from all sorts of different spots. The Broncos pass-rushing unit wouldn’t just become deeper with the addition of Chubb, but he’d also allow the staff to be a lot more creative with their blitz packages. Teams couldn’t run at him, either, or double team Von Miller regularly. Selecting Chubb wouldn’t exactly recreate the duo of Von and DeMarcus Ware, but it would be a similarly dangerous combination of edge rushers none the less.
Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
The buzz the last month, has been that Rosen’s the top-four quarterback most likely to drop. Which makes me wonder why Denver would be so open to trading down if they feel good about him being around. Maybe it’s all smoke, but if feel like there’s something there.
We broke down the UCLA standout’s film here. He’s the most pro-ready of the class, has enticing accuracy and anticipation, and checks off just about every box you’d want in a future NFL starter.
Rosen’s big questions are his injury concerns and his outspoken nature, that’s turned off some teams. We’ll see if Denver is one of those.
Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
After the top three, it feels like the Broncos would likely trade down and hope the rest of the names on this list would drop to them. That said, if they’re stuck at five with no truly enticing offers to trade down, Ward is probably at the top of the list.
He’s far from a perfect prospect but has tons of athleticism to eventually be developed into a lockdown No. 1 cornerback—a premium need for any team in the modern NFL. Ward has speed for days, and when he gets his head turned around, can make tons of plays on the ball. He just needs to be better with his eyes and improve as a tackler, but the sky’s the limit with this kid.
Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
We broke down Nelson’s film here, and while he’s an ultra-safe pick, he wouldn’t be ideal at five. Nelson can really move people in the run game and has a strong base that allows him to anchor masterfully in pass protection.
It’ll be interesting to see how he fares in the NFL if he’s moved to right guard and don’t get as much help from his center. He’ll be tested in the pass-heavy NFL when asked to pass protect 40 to 50 times a game, as his athleticism is a bit suspect. He’d be an unspectacular but very safe pick for the Broncos.
Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia and Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
A couple of dark horse picks at fifth overall are Smith and Edmunds, both young and with really appealing upside. The Broncos have talked about how they need to upgrade their inside linebackers. Adding athletic building blocks for the future would make even more sense, and given how the Broncos were interested in Haason Reddick a year ago, both Smith and Edmunds would make sense.
They’re both different—check out our linebacker preview, to get the full scouting report on the two—but would be good picks at five, even if they wouldn’t be the greatest value.
Trade-down options in the early teens
Obviously, if someone like Nelson, Smith, Ward, or Edmunds were to drop, they’d be the pick at 11, 12, or 15—the most logical trade down locations for the Broncos. More realistically, Denver will have to consider this next tier of talents if they do, in fact, move down form five.
Vita Vea, DT, Washington
Vea visited with the Broncos during the draft process, and while we haven’t talked about interior lineman much, he’s the cream of the crop. Vea has massive size and really impressive skills, not only as a run stuffer, but getting after the quarterback as well.
He’d be a tone-setter in the middle of the defensive line, the likes of which Denver hasn’t had for many years. When you have a talent like Vea at nose guard, he demands double teams and will open up one-on-one opportunities across the formation for the Broncos other playmakers. He’d be an intriguing pick outside of the top 10.
Minkah Fitzpatrick, FS/CB, Alabama
We didn’t analyze the safety class in our position previews, as with the addition of Su’a Cravens, safety doesn’t feel like a need in this draft. However, if Nick Saban’s favorite player, Fitzpatrick, were to drop he’d be hard to pass up.
The Alabama stud is extremely versatile, with size and cover skills that would allow him to play outside, making him a potential Aqib Talib replacement. He could also be the heir to Darian Stewart at free safety, or give the Broncos three safeties who could play together—similar to what the Arizona Cardinals had a few seasons ago.
Taven Bryan, DL, Florida
Bryan’s not in the same tier of prospects that the others on this list are, as he’s still raw, was only a one-year starter and is a complete gamble on upside. If the ten players mentioned above are not available, however, he could very well be a target for the Broncos in the teens, if they, in fact, trade down.
The Wyoming native has massive talent as an interior rusher, and would be the closest thing to a Malik Jackson or Calais Campbell type player in a few years. His ability to create penetration and disrupt plays is uncanny and makes him a real force to be reckoned with. He’s strong at the point of attack, has good size, and would be a reliable run defender.
Bryan just needs to be more disciplined in sticking to his assignment, instead of always trying to get in the backfield, as he can open up gaps that weren’t originally there. Even if he’d be a bit of a reach at 12 or 15, Bryan is exactly what the Broncos defense has been missing the past few years and could be a potentially game-changing pickup.
Marcus Davenport, DE, UTSA
You best believe the Broncos are aware of Davenport, who abused their south team at the Senior Bowl on the way to an embarrassing defeat. If they really do love Chubb, Davenport has a similar appeal with even greater upside, though, he’s not nearly as NFL ready.
The small-school pass rusher has all the tools to become a big-time NFL player rushing off the edge, with ample size and athleticism. He’d be a surprise pick but fits what Denver’s looking for.
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State
Much like Davenport and Bryan, Vander Esch would be a gamble on potential.
However, if the Broncos are interested in shoring up their linebacking corps, he has the athletic tools to be a three-down player. His tape is uneven at times, and he can be slow to read and react, but he played his best football down the stretch, and his combine numbers proved the type of special athlete he can be.
He would be a bigger reach than anyone we’ve mentioned so far, but after Smith and Edmunds, he’s the top linebacker for many. He’s flashed the ability to attack the line of scrimmage and create pressure, as well, which added to his sideline-to-sideline skills and cover ability, could make him a really enticing starter.
Rashaan Evans, OLB, Alabama
If the Broncos liked Reddick a year ago for his multifaceted talents, they should be enticed by Evans as well. Though not the athlete Reddick was, Evans’ tape is amongst the best in the class and his ability to play both as an off-ball backer or rush the passer would allow the Broncos to fix multiple needs with one pick.
His name hasn’t been mentioned at all for Denver, but he makes more sense than others on this list.
Options at 22
If the Broncos do take the Bills trade, they should be receiving both the Bills’ first rounders to make the deal happen. That means the Broncos wouldn’t just be drafting someone at 12 but at 22 as well.
While at 12 there are several choices, at 22 the Broncos are likely to go after an offensive lineman—wether it be a tackle or guard. They could also ensure they get the running back they’re targetting at pick 40.
There are several names to consider, all of which we covered on our position previews, so check those out in the links above for their full scouting reports.
My feeling is, the top linemen available would be their main targets.