Examining the Broncos' draft scenarios based on their Week 17 result

DENVER — The Denver Broncos are only one game away from finding out where they will be drafting in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.

By Sunday night, John Elway will know exactly how close to the top of the draft he will be selecting. Despite only one game remaining in the season, there’s still a wide window of where Denver could land in the first round.

Here’s what will determine the Broncos’ draft pick.

CURRENT DRAFT ORDER

1. Jaguars (1-14)
2. Jets (2-13)
3. Dolphins via Texans (4-11)
4. Falcons (4-11)
5. Bengals (4-10-1)
6. Eagles (4-10-1)
7. Lions (5-10)
8. Giants (5-10)
9. Panthers (5-10)
10. Broncos (5-10)
11. Cowboys (6-9)
12. Chargers (6-9)
13. Vikings (6-9)
14. Patriots (6-9)
15. 49ers (6-9)
16. Raiders (7-8)
17. Cardinals (8-7)
18. Colts (10-5)

DRAFT PICK RANGE

Forget about Trevor Lawrence and whoever comes off the board at No. 2. The Broncos are mathematically eliminated from the first two picks in the draft.

They are, however, guaranteed a top-15 pick.

Currently sitting at No. 10, it’s highly unlikely Denver lands the No. 3 or No. 4 overall pick due to their difficult strength of schedule—which is the tiebreaker when it comes to draft order—but landing the No. 5 overall pick is not out of the question.

It’s also possible the Broncos slide all the way back to the very-familiar 15th pick in the draft.

Despite only one game left in the season, there are over 10 different spots in the first round the Broncos could be selecting, with the realistic window being anywhere from No. 5—which they had in 2018—to No. 15—which they had in 2020.

HOW DENVER MOVES UP IN THE DRAFT

Thanks to Denver’s incredibly difficult strength of schedule (.567)—the second-toughest in the NFL—they’re going to need a lot of help around the league to jump into the top five.

Unless there is a drastic change in strength of schedule in the final week of the season, which is highly unlikely, the Broncos will lose the tiebreaker with every team they could have the same record as. Not only will Denver need bad teams to win in Week 17 to move up in the draft, but they also have to lose. If the Broncos win, the 10th-overall pick is the highest they will go.

Here’s how the Broncos move up in the draft.

Rise to a top-five pick

To get the No. 5 overall pick in the draft, the Broncos will need all of the bolded teams below to win on Sunday, along with Denver losing to the Raiders.

Ravens (10-5) @ Bengals (4-10-1)

Washington Football Team (6-9) @ Eagles (4-10-1)

Vikings (6-9) @ Lions (5-10)

Cowboys (6-9) @ Giants (5-10)

Saints (11-4) @ Panthers (5-10)

Jump to No. 6-9

For the Broncos to get the sixth-overall pick in the draft, four of the bolded teams above have to win on Sunday, along with a Broncos loss. Since every team Denver needs to win is playing a team with a better record, this is unlikely.

For Denver to land the seventh-overall pick, they would need three of the bolded teams to win. If two of the above teams win, they’ll land the eighth-overall pick. Finally, if only one of those teams wins, Denver will move up one spot to the ninth-overall pick.

Of course, for any of this to happen, the Broncos also have to lose.

Land a top-three pick

If, by a miracle, all of the above teams lose, the Texans (4-11) beat the Titans (10-5), the Falcons (4-11) beat the Buccaneers (10-5), the Broncos lose, and strength of schedule changes significantly, then Denver could land the No. 3 or No. 4 overall pick, but don’t count on it.

HOW DENVER FALLS IN THE DRAFT

If the Broncos lose on Sunday, the worst pick they will have is 10. However, if they beat the Raiders, the best pick they can have is 10 and they could fall all the way to pick 15.

If Denver wins on Sunday, here’s what will determine how far they will fall in the first round.

Stay at No. 10

For the Broncos to stay in the top 10 despite beating the Raiders, they would need all of the bolded teams below to also win.

Cowboys (6-9) @ Giants (5-10)

Chargers (6-9) @ Chiefs (14-1)

Vikings (6-9) @ Lions (5-10)

Jets (2-13) @ Patriots (6-9)

Seahawks (11-4) @ 49ers (6-9)

Fall to No. 11-15

If Denver beats the Raiders, they will fall one draft spot for every bolded team above that loses. For instance, if the Broncos win and only the 49ers lose from the list above, then Denver will have the 11th pick in the draft.

The Broncos will fall all the way to No. 15 if they win and all of the bolded teams above lose.

AFC WEST PLACEMENT

When it comes to draft order, there’s clearly a lot on the line for the Broncos in Week 17, despite no shot at the playoffs. Denver can land a top-five pick or be sitting in the middle of the first round.

But there’s even more on the line as well.

The Broncos could finish third or fourth in the AFC West. And this has meaning beyond bragging rights.

Denver’s standing in their division has a significant impact on two games in 2021. The Broncos will play the team in the AFC South and AFC East that finishes in the same spot as them in their respective divisions.

If the Broncos finished third in the division, they will play the Patriots (6-9) and the Texans (4-11) next year. However, if they finish last in the division, they’ll play the Jets (2-13) and the Jaguars (1-14).

A loss to the Raiders on Sunday would guarantee the Broncos to finish last in the division, as would a Chargers win over the Chiefs—who are resting many of their starters including Patrick Mahomes.

The Broncos will finish third in the division if they win and the Chargers lose, thanks to Denver’s better record in common games, which is the third tiebreaker.