Even when Patrick Mahomes struggles, he's still effective, as a comparison with Teddy Bridgewater reveals

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — This has not been the kindest of seasons to Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes — to the point where one could dive into myriad statistics and actually make a comparison between Mahomes and Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater.

To wit, this is where the two passers stand in their rankings in various metrics:

• ESPN QBR: Bridgewater 20, Mahomes 9
• Passer rating: Bridgewater 12, Mahomes 17
• EPA (expected points added)/play: Bridgewater 7, Mahomes 9
• Unadjusted EPA/play: Bridgewater 5, Mahomes 9
• Success rate (percentage of plays where EPA > 0): Bridgewater 15, Mahomes 2
• CPOE (completion percentage over expected): Bridgewater 2, Mahomes 11
• Air yards/pass play: Bridgewater 13, Mahomes 24
• Touchdown-pass percentage: Bridgewater 16, Mahomes 10
• Interception percentage: Bridgewater 5, Mahomes 21
• Third-down conversion percentage when passing or scrambling: Bridgewater 23, Mahomes 2

Which leads to:

• Average rankings in those 10 categories: Bridgewater 11.8, Mahomes 11.4

So, while Mahomes and Bridgewater end in similar spots, they got there with wildly different paths. Mahomes has turned the ball over 13 times this season — 11 interceptions and six lost fumbles. Bridgewater has fewer than half as many giveaways — six, to be precise.

At one point, Mahomes threw interceptions in seven consecutive games. Bridgewater’s turnovers to date happened in a three-game span — and, more specifically, a stretch that didn’t even last a full six quarters in length, going from the final snap of a Week 5 loss to Pittsburgh to the second quarter of the Week 7 defeat at Cleveland.

But Mahomes’ giveaways have largely ceased. He played two turnover-free games, then against Dallas before the Chiefs’ bye, had an interception and a lost fumble in a 19-9 Kansas City win.

“[The turnovers] came early. They haven’t happened recently. They got off to a slow start for them, and that’s when the bulk of his interceptions came,” Broncos coach Vic Fangio said. ‘

“I’ve seen all their games, but obviously, [I’m] focusing more on the recent six to eight. They’re not showing up like they did before, either,” Fangio continued. “He had the start to this season, which was out of character for him, but he’s back to normal.”

And now?

“Mahomes is Mahomes,” Fangio said.

Still, this has not been the best of times for Mahomes. But the history of other quarterbacks who hit an elite level early also shows that this is most likely a temporary dip that tends to happen somewhere between the third and sixth year as a starting quarterback.

Two examples stand out:

• Dan Marino, 1988-89: In his first five seasons, Marino averaged 39 touchdowns and 19 interceptions per 16 games. In 1988 and 1989, his per-16-game averages were 26 and 22.5, respectively, while his Dolphins went 14-18 over those two seasons. He would eventually rebound, return to the Pro Bowl and guide the Dolphins to seven more playoff appearances in the following 10 years, and wouldn’t come that close to having a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio until his final NFL season of 1999.
• Peyton Manning, 2001: In his fourth season in the NFL and as the Colts’ starting quarterback, his touchdown-to-interception ratio went from 33-to-15 a year earlier to 26-to-23. His yardage per attempt remained virtually the same — 7.7 in 2000; 7.6 in 2001 — but he and the Colts offense couldn’t compensate for a sagging defense, and a team that averaged 11.5 wins in the previous two seasons slumped to 6-10. Manning slightly rebounded the following year and returned to the Pro Bowl, then was at cruising altitude by 2003.

So, yes, Bridgewater’s data does reflect a better season than the one Mahomes is enjoying now.

And based on Bridgewater’s form from New Orleans and Carolina — particularly what he did in the 10 games of 2020 — it’s fair to say that what the Broncos are getting likely reflects what teams should expect going forward. His 2021 passer rating of 98.9 is a precise match for the rating he amassed in 15 starts from the beginning of the 2019 season until he injured his knee 10 games into 2020.

But despite the numbers, don’t get caught up in thinking that the two are equals — even in the moment. They are different quarterbacks with vastly different skill sets and ceilings — and the reasonable expectation level of each should reflect that notion.