Erik Johnson is the linchpin of Colorado's offseason

Even though the Stanley Cup was awarded a few days ago, today marks the unofficial beginning of the NHL offseason as the initial buyout window is now open for teams to begin making meaningful financial decisions.

This year’s window is especially intriguing because the Seattle expansion draft looms in less than two weeks and we might see a number of unexpected buyouts putting talented players on the market.

In Colorado, the only buyout question centers on the player who is arguably the most important one to all of Colorado’s offseason plans: Erik Johnson.

The longtime Avalanche defender is coming off yet another season in which his availability was limited as he played only four games this season before getting hurt. That continues a trend for Johnson, whose entire career has been badly marred by injuries. In fact, in Johnson’s 10 full seasons in Colorado, he has broken the 70 games barrier just four times (in the two pandemic-shortened seasons he played 59 of 72 games and then just the four this year).

With just two years left on the monster extension he signed back in 2015, Johnson is now a 33-year-old defenseman who is well below the playing level that saw him justify getting paid $6M at the start of the deal.

Once Colorado’s top defenseman and minute-muncher, Johnson is now, at best, fourth on Colorado’s depth chart on the blueline and even that is a tenuous position with young talent pushing for more ice time.

Why is he so important for the Avs this offseason? Let’s take a look at each of the portions of the offseason schedule and why Johnson will matter during each.

Buyout Window

That window opens today and while there’s been no signs of Colorado having an interest in jettisoning Johnson this way, it’s at least on the table until it’s not so we’ll touch on it.

Buying out Johnson right now would give the Avs an extra $4M in cap space to play with this summer but would cost Colorado $2M against the cap each of the next four years.

It gives immediate relief but with the salary cap not expected to rise anytime soon, the Avs likely won’t feel comfortable eating the $2M cost for Johnson into the next contract for, among others, Nathan MacKinnon. They need all the space they can get and guaranteeing they are paying $2M to get zero return on the investment is a tough way to be.

There is the issue of the no-movement clause in his contract, however, that makes a potential buyout a little more plausible. Now, there have been indications Johnson is willing to waive the NMC for the purposes of the Seattle expansion draft, which we’ll get to in a minute, but until he officially does so, the Avs should keep all options open.

The wrinkle here is that rules are in place that prevents teams from buying out injured players. If the Avs wanted to buy Johnson out, he would have to be able to pass a physical in order for them to do so. It’s unclear whether or not Johnson would be able to pass that physical right now so buying him out may not even be an option.

The Expansion Draft/Entry Draft

Did you know Seattle is entering the league as the 32nd franchise?

Talk of the expansion draft has dominated message boards and youtube comment sections for the last two years as people like me have dodged, ducked, dipped dove, and dodged conversations about it because they are endless loops of the same exact conversation.

That conversation surrounding the Avalanche always begins with Erik Johnson and the NMC in his contract.

It’s pretty simple and straightforward.

Johnson either waives the NMC and he is exposed to being selected by Seattle, or he refuses and the Avs are in the position of likely exposing Devon Toews or a forward they really want to keep (say, for example, Nazem Kadri).

Life is easier for both parties if Johnson waives the NMC, taking pressure off Colorado to buy him out (pending his health, of course) or find a new home for him. If bought out, Johnson loses $4M in the process as he would only be entitled to 8 of the 12 million dollars owed to him in the last two years of his contract. Given his injury issues and age, it is very unlikely Johnson would be able to recoup that money on the open market, which brings us full circle to Johnson waiving the NMC and being exposed.

Now, the part of the story that often gets lost in the conversation is the possibility of Seattle…simply selecting Johnson.

Expansion teams need great guys who can be part of their initial leadership corps as well as the initial face(s) of the franchise. This is where Johnson, who is exceptionally honest and accountable both in the locker room and with the media, truly stands out.

Would Seattle really want an oft-injured player who is 33 and making $6M for the next two years, even if he is a quality human being worth building a brand around? The reality is that it doesn’t make very much sense, especially because they’d be doing a massive favor for the Avalanche, who would certainly miss the person but, frankly, didn’t miss the player very much this past season as they won the President’s Trophy without him.

The Avs have just a little too much talent they will be exposing in the expansion draft for the Kraken to take Johnson off their hands for free.

Now, for a price, maybe they would consider it.

This is where Colorado has to tread carefully as we watched the Vegas expansion draft be littered with high-profile mistakes by teams who traded major assets to try and get cute with who was protected and who was not. In fact, many of those decisions laid the groundwork for Vegas to become the problem they currently are.

But, for the Avs, looking at things in a vacuum, would it be the worst thing in the world for them to send their first-round pick (28th overall, though it will be the 27th pick because of Arizona’s pick forfeiture) to Seattle in exchange for them selecting Johnson and getting $6M more to play with this summer (hello, Brandon Saad extension money!)?

It’s expensive, but with just three picks in this year’s class (1st, 3rd, 7th) remaining after a multitude of trades, the Avs have already mostly punted on this being a meaningful draft class. They could choose to go all the way and send that pick (or more if Seattle is trying to really draw blood from the Avs, which they absolutely will) to the Kraken in what would be a pure salary cap dump.

From Colorado’s side, this is expensive in assets but gives them the financial flexibility to stop sweating the potential new contracts of Gabe Landeskog, Cale Makar, and Philipp Grubauer.

From Seattle, they get the treasured “assets” to build their future and if Johnson stays healthy, they could get a pretty good player on their hands.

Speaking of which…

Next season

If Johnson sticks around in Colorado and actually manages to stay healthy, Johnson figures to open next season next to Sam Girard, pushing Ryan Graves (if he isn’t Seattle-bound himself…) to the third pairing where both Bowen Byram and Conor Timmins also lurk in search of playing time.

Byram’s 19 games were unexpected in that his defensive impact far outweighed his offensive contributions and the season from Timmins was a bit up and down but finished on a very strong note in the regular season and he followed it with an encouraging postseason showing.

But with Johnson in tow, the Avs get one of their better penalty killers back in the fold, removing the team’s need to lessen the load on its top three defenders (specifically Toews) and freeing them up for more action at even strength.

A healthy Johnson also means next trade deadline the Avs don’t need to go bargain-hunting for a guy like Patrik Nemeth, whose style simply didn’t mesh anymore with what the identity on Colorado’s defense has become since his initial departure. It didn’t work well at all for Nemeth and he arguably should’ve been benched as the postseason wore on.

If Johnson is in the lineup, whatever platitudes about size, toughness, and PK experience that justified Nemeth’s continued usage are negated because Johnson checks all the same boxes while also not being a complete horror show with the puck.

While Nemeth is not expected to be brought back, the role Johnson would slide into next season will look very familiar to what Nemeth did, especially if Graves is gone and Byram and Timmins become the full-time lineup regulars they deserve to be.

The leadership and moxie Johnson brings will be a valuable asset to bring back to the lineup. From an emotional and karmic standpoint, this is a player who chose to stay in Colorado when he was in demand after the 48-point fiasco in 16-17 that saw the vultures circling the Avalanche roster.

Johnson wanted to be part of the solution and with the Avs set to be favorites in the Central Division next year, you’d like to see him get a real chance to be part of a playoff run with this organization.

The end game is the Stanley Cup, however, and if the Avalanche brass decide their best chance at winning the sport’s ultimate prize is to move on from Johnson, there will be plenty of avenues this summer to make it happen. Whatever they decide, Johnson will be at the center of Colorado’s entire offseason.