Drew Lock has an opportunity to show he's among the NFL's best young QBs on Sunday. Here's why

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — Sure, the Broncos might have had an advantage if their game with the Patriots had been played as originally scheduled. Taking Cam Newton out of the lineup darkens the Patriots’ outlook like a solar eclipse.

But this game — assuming that it takes place Sunday at Gillette Stadium – is more valuable being played now rather than last week because Drew Lock is expected to be in the lineup.

And it’s all about facing a Bill Belichick-led defense. His ability to create chameleon-like defenses that change their tactics from week to week has confused and constrained most of the young quarterbacks the Patriots have faced dating back to 2001, Belichick’s second season as their head coach.

Here are the trends that Lock will attempt to go against, courtesy of a dive into the deep end of numbers at pro-football-reference.com:

• Since Belichick became the Patriots’ coach, New England is 38-11 against quarterbacks making one of their first eight career starts. But since 2001 — the year after the Patriots’ break-down-before-building-back-up campaign that opened Belichick’s tenure — that mark is 38-8.
• At home, the Patriots’ success against quarterbacks in starts 1-8 is amplified; the Pats have won 23 of their last 24 games against teams featuring a passer in his first half-season of starts. The only QB to win in that scenario in that span, which dates back to 2001? San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick in 2012, who fired four touchdown passes in a win en route to an NFC title. The rabble of quarterbacks who lost in this scenario in that span, by the way, includes Patrick Mahomes, whose Chiefs fell 43-40 at Foxborough in 2018.
• Regardless of venue, the Patriots have won 10 consecutive games against teams with quarterbacks making one of their first eight starts against them. The last time they lost? It was to Denver on Nov. 29, 2015. The Broncos’ quarterback was Brock Osweiler, who made his second of seven starts in relief of Peyton Manning and led the Broncos back from a 21-7 fourth-quarter deficit for a 30-24 overtime win.
• That said, the last 10 quarterbacks making one of their first eight starts against New England have found the terrain as rough as some of the craggy portions of New England’s Atlantic shoreline. Their collective passer rating is 68.9. Only two had more touchdowns than interceptions — and one of those two — Cleveland’s Cody Kessler — didn’t even make it through the first quarter before suffering a game-ending injury. This 68.9 rating includes data from Mahomes’ 110.0 rating on 23-of-36 passing against the Patriots just over two years ago. That was easily the best full-game performance by a young quarterback against the Patriots since Kaepernick and then-rookie Russell Wilson diced up New England eight seasons ago.
• So will Lock be more like Mahomes in his debut against the Patriots? Or will his first time against them look like the starts for Daniel Jones of the New York Giants (35.2 passer rating, 15-of-31 passing, 161 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions) or Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams (43.9 passer rating, 161 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions)? Goff wasn’t working with Sean McVay when he faced the Patriots, so he stands as evidence that not faring well against a Belichick-led defense isn’t the end.
• And then there is the 8-start measuring stick for Lock. His passer rating of 89.2 in the seven games on his ledger is good for his era; if you placed it among the 139 other quarterbacks to make their first eight starts since 2000, it would rank 27th — although six of the seven quarterbacks immediately in front of him are not distinguished: Kessler, Shaun Hill, Mike Glennon, Nick Mullens, Kyle Allen and Gardner Minshew II.
• Now, let’s say Lock goes 20-of-30 for 250 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions Sunday. Then his eight-game passer rating would improve to 92.6. He’d be 20th on that list. And the names just above him would include Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo and Baker Mayfield. And that’s the sort of comparison that could change the tenor of the public perception of the Broncos’ young quarterback.

There’s an opportunity for Lock on Sunday. And that opportunity was worth the wait.