DNVR Staff Predictions: Nuggets win total, seed and top storyline

What will the Nuggets’ record be this season? Will Denver capture a top-4 seed in the Western Conference for a fourth-straight year? What is the top storyline to track throughout the season?

The DNVR Nuggets crew, Adam Mares, Harrison Wind, Brendan Vogt and Dev Johnson, unveil their predictions for the 2021-22 campaign.

What will the Nuggets record be this season?

Adam: 49-33

This has been the most difficult Nuggets season to project and perhaps the season with the potential for the widest range of outcomes. The absence of Jamal Murray makes the floor for the regular season lower than it has been in any of the previous three seasons. But the ascension of Michael Porter Jr. and the integration of Aaron Gordon onto the team makes the ceiling higher than that it has been in any of the previous 10 seasons.

But while Porter and Gordon’s upside this season are a mystery, the largest variable I have to weigh is the mental stamina of the reigning MVP, Nikola Jokic. Coming off of an MVP season, two playoff runs in one calendar year, back-to-back shortened offseasons, and the birth of his first-born child, it would make sense that Jokic might find himself a bit more irritable than he has been in the past. Having to discover the level of chemistry with Porter that is required to win 50+ games might prove to be too tall of a task.

That being said, the talent and ability of Jokic to carry the Nuggets to a top 2 or 3 seed is undeniable. As is the talent of Porter Jr. Those two things combined give this team 55 win upside. I think some mental fatigue catches up to Jokic and the rest of the team but not enough to lower them below 49 wins.

Harrison: 52-30

There’s one thing we know for sure about the Nuggets coming into this season: Nikola Jokic is God. He’s the best regular season player in the NBA and was the MVP for largely that reason. Jokic is the toughest player in the league to guard on a night-to-night basis. He’s impossible to game plan for, especially when opposing coaching staffs have to draw up new defensive game plans for different opponents every night.

Yes, there are many factors going against Jokic this season that could lead you to believe that he’ll regress. Denver doesn’t have Jamal Murray. Michael Porter Jr. is unproven. After two strenuous regular seasons, can Jokic take on even more of an offensive load this year? He’s had big changes to his personal life too. I know a first child would change my performance at work one way or another.

But in the end, Jokic always prevails. He can carry undermanned rotations and average role players to wins. He’s done it so many times in the past. However, the Nuggets have much more than that. They’ll have one of the better starting 5’s in the NBA again this season. If Porter can take some of the pressure off his shoulders, Jokic should carry the Nuggets to near the top of the conference again.

Brendan: 50-32

Fifty wins are the prediction of an optimist, but that’s the best way to categorize this author. So much has to go wrong to derail a regular season for Denver now. Sure, Jamal Murray missing most of the regular-season counts as plenty gone wrong, but I view that as more of a playoff issue than the regular season. The reality is that Monte Morris can start alongside a competent core, and that’s what’s in place here. They may suffer some defensively, and it’s reasonable to expect a drop in clutch wins without Murray. All the same, that offense is potent enough for a boatload of wins, as has become the new normal here in Denver.

Dev: 49-33

I do expect the Nuggets to get off to a rocky start before they finally figure it out. Although it is the exact same team with the addition of Jeff Green, there are so many changing dynamic with the team and new roles that guys will have to adjust to this season. The bench unit also worries me beyond wonders, but the Nuggets do have the true reigning MVP (sorry Giannis) so I expect Denver to find a groove in the middle of the season and start racking up wins. I have the Nuggets again going over their projected total and in this near-normal season.

What seed will the Nuggets finish with?

Adam: 4th

The West feels a lot more balanced right now than I think it will finish heading into the playoffs. The Jazz and Suns have the star power, chemistry, and depth to consistently win enough to pace the Western Conference. The Blazers, Warriors, Lakers, and Grizzlies should compete for a top 4-seed but all carry the same level of volatility as the Nuggets. I think Denver hovers around that 3rd-6th range all year but edges

Harrison: 3rd

The Nuggets will probably open this regular season slow. An ugly preseason doesn’t give me too much hope that Denver gets out of the gate quick. But the Nuggets just know how to win in the regular season around Jokic. They’ve piled wins together in the past without Murray too, like when the Nuggets put together one of the best records in the NBA (13-5) after his injury late last season. When Murray returns he won’t be 100%, but I think this team will be rejuvenated. A late-season run to get up to 3rd in the conference seems plausible.

Brendan: 4th

In terms of range, Denver finishing somewhere in the five, four, and three seed feels right. Utah and Phoenix will likely command the top two seeds. From there, the Lakers, Nuggets, and Warriors seem likely to compete for home court in the playoffs. I’m not buying Dallas. Five is cautious, three optimistic, and four a safer middle ground. My heart says three, but my heart has a habit of leading me astray.

Dev: 5th

The Western Conference is tough. I mean, really strong, and I only expect it to get better as there are a few teams that did not make the playoffs last season that should be in the mix. While I expect the Nuggets to get off to a slow start, I still think they will be there when it matters and they will find a way to survive the Jamal Murray-less months. It will take a bit of time for him to game back to himself but if he is even 75% of what he was, this is a team that has title contentions.

The West is a conference where anything could happen and there will be 2-3 teams that I expect to still be at the top. But from there, the teams that stay healthy have a chance. The Nuggets have the chemistry and talent to still compete without their starting point guard for the year.

What’s the top storyline for the Nuggets this season?

Adam: Chemistry between Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr.

Porter has already proven to be talented enough to be an all-star, but talent alone doesn’t carry a team in today’s loaded NBA. Just ask Bradley Beal. Chemistry and togetherness elevates individuals to something greater than the sum of their parts. For a perfect example of that, look no further than Jamal Murray and Jokic, who at their best hit a level of synchronicity that is shared by some of the best duos in NBA history.

Expecting Porter to connect with Jokic to the same degree that Murray has is probably unreasonable, but the two Nuggets stars have to find a way to work together in ways that create a checkmate offensive style. Do that, and the Nuggets just might mess around and win a championship. Fail to do that, and the Nuggets might be exploring the trade market next offseason.

Harrison: Can Michael Porter Jr. be a regular season world-beater?

If Porter truly levels up like we all think he has the potential to this season, then Denver can cruise through parts of its schedule. It’s the most important question this year. If Porter ascends, he can take a ton of the pressure off Jokic’s shoulders. But he’ll have to bring it nearly every night. If the Nuggets can pencil Porter in for 20-25 points per game every single game even with more of their opponent’s defensive game plan focused on him, then Denver should be fine.

But it’s not just his scoring. Porter can’t commit the glaring defensive errors that he did a season ago. He has to be a much better defender this season.

Brendan: Aaron Gordon’s impact

I’m locked in on Gordon’s health and defensive prowess. If the Nuggets did indeed find a lockdown wing at the deadline, it changes how we view this team in the playoffs. It didn’t materialize last year, with both Portland and Phoenix featuring dynamic guards and less threatening wing players.

We also have to factor in the cascading effect of the Murray injury, followed by injuries to three other guards. The Nuggets weren’t close to competitiveness against Phoenix, but we shouldn’t consider that their best foot forward either. Denver appeared a more versatile and effective defense in the short window with Murray following the Gordon trade. Are they really as abysmal defensively as they looked last postseason? Is Aaron Gordon ready to vault them over the top?

Dev: Can Michael Porter Jr. make the leap?

Porter’s a player that could easily be the Most Improved Player favorite and now comes into the season as a go-to guy. He will have the ultimate green light, so applying himself on both sides of the ball and being consistent will be key to the team’s success. I am expecting a HUGE year from MPJ scoring the ball, particularly showcasing himself as one of the best shooters in the entire league. But that will also open up the rest of his game as well.

MPJ is a better rebounder than expected, has showcased an improved handle in the preseason and is a guy that this team can go through. I am expecting a year where he is in the running for a All-Star nod with the numbers with plenty of “Yeah Mike” moments at the bar.