DNVR NFL Mock Draft 3.0: Stay put or move up?

With time ticking down to the Cincinnati Bengals being on the clock for the first draft of its kind, there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty surrounding the unprecedented 2020 NFL Draft.

With all the uncertainty already baked into sports in these times, it is fair to wonder how risk-averse the already typically conservative NFL front offices will be in a draft like this.

This draft will tell us a lot about what teams think about prioritizing more NFL-ready contributors, valuing red-flags more than usual, and even what they really think will happen with the 2020 NFL season.

After a free agency that’s still left plenty of big-names on the market, teams have seemingly more options than ever but also less information on players and are having to operate the draft differently from home they ever have.

With all that, only a fool could think of predicting what will happen in the draft, exactly why this fool has given you his 32 best guesses for the first round.

Enjoy!

1) Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

If Burrow, an Ohio native, wants to go back to his home state, he’s the pick and a fine fit in Zac Taylor’s McVay-inspired attack.

2) Washington Redskins: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State

Young carries a higher grade than Nick Bosa did for us a year ago. He’s an easy pick who promises to follow in the footsteps of other great edge rushers like Julius Peppers and Von Miller, who were also drafted second overall.

3) Detroit Lions: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State

The Lions pick is really where the draft begins, at least if Detroit can be convinced to trade out of the pick. Without a trade, this selection is almost as predictable as the last two, with Okudah’s lockdown corner profile fitting exactly what Matt Patricia has tried to do with the Lions’ defense.

4) New York Giants: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

The Giants are open to trading back a few spots but we predict them to stay put and get the most talented blocker of the draft to maximize their backfield of Saquan Barkley and Daniel Jones. Wirfs’ high-upside and still relatively high floor make him a safe, culture type of pick for the Giants in the top five.

5) Miami Dolphins: Andrew Thomas, LT, Georgia

The Dolphins can get greedy with their top two needs; quarterback and offensive tackle. Rather than select a quarterback here, they can take the top tackle and use their substantial remaining draft capital to move up and still they get one out of Tua, Herbert or Love.

Here’s the other thing, Tua’s injuries are scary, especially if you’re considering making him the face of your franchise, and were always going to be a major question mark. Without being able to bring him into their building and with the litany of injuries he’s suffered already in his career, combined with his slender frame, a drop seems far from unthinkable. Thomas, on the other hand, is cleaner than every other tackle prospect which should propel him to go pretty high.

6) Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

LA is in a weird spot. They already have a lot of pieces in place, but like Miami, need to shore up their left tackle and quarterback spots. Tackle is the more immediate need but with Wirfs and Thomas off the board, Herbert is the pick here. Herbert’s on-field risk is comparable to Tua’s injury risk with arguably greater upside and raw tools.

7) Carolina Panthers: Isaiah Simmons, LB/S, Clemson

The Panthers are building long term, and the value at this pick lies in one of the top-four defensive prospects dropping to them. Simmons is an easy selection here as a versatile chess piece to build the defense around.

8) Arizona Cardinals: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

The Cardinals made their big move of the offseason on offense by adding DeAndre Hopkins but the defense remains a massive issue. Plug Brown in the middle of their front, with Chandler Jones rushing off the edge, and you suddenly can compete with some of the other nasty D-lines in the NFC West.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

With Marqise Lee getting released this week, the Jaguars’ two first-round picks seem penciled in to be a combination of wide receiver and cornerback. Most teams seem to feel the drop off after Henderson is drastic at cornerback, while there are many more options at receiver in the loaded 2020 class. 

Selecting Tua should certainly be a conversation that’s had over the Jags Zoom call. They could also use the 20th pick towards a quarterback but with Minshew and yet another long-term rebuild well on its way, waiting for the 2021 QB class makes more sense.

10) Denver Broncos (from Browns): Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

*Projected trade: Browns get picks 15, 77 and 179*

The Broncos guarantee themselves the top receiver in the class for a fairly modest price, as the Brown have their man at tackle—if the board falls this way—and rather than reach at 10, opt to add draft capital and still get their man.

While the buzz around Jerry Jeudy being the Broncos’ main target has heated up on draft week, I tend to believe the chatter coming out of the Senior Bowl and Combine, when Ruggs was the name most often connected to Denver.

Either way, the Broncos’ offense is immediately transformed once you add the quickness and speed those two bring. Ruggs would be an explosive piece that could unlock Denver’s other playmakers with how he forces coverages to respect his speed and dictate their coverages.

11) New York Jets: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama

With Ruggs snatched out from under them, the Jets get a building block in the trenches in Wills, a tone-setting downhill enforcer who can help change New York’s offensive identity.

12) Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

The Raiders can add a big-time weapon to their offense here. Combining Lamb with Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs’ running style would give the Raiders a physical, mismatch-oriented offense with lots of YAC weapons to benefit Derek Carr or Marcus Mariota.

13) San Francisco 49ers: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

The Niners adding Jeudy would be scary. The most polished route runner in the class could feast on one-on-one opportunities in an offense that would create non-stop favorable matchups for Alabama’s star receiver.

14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

The Bucs are all in and breathe a sigh of relief to have one of the big four offensive tackles drop to them.

15) Cleveland Browns (from Broncos): Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State

*Projected trade (see above)*

The Browns get their man in Cleveland who after Thomas and Wirfs became the best fit in their zone scheme.

16) Atlanta Falcons: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

The Falcons need help defensively in several areas, tackle might not be their top priority but the disruptive Kinlaw could take their front to another level.

17) Dallas Cowboys: K’Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU

The Cowboys could easily take the best offer and move down to the 30s where they’d still find the top safeties available but with Chaisson, who fits the prototype of boom-or-bust pass rusher they’ve targeted in the past, they pounce.

18) Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

The Dolphins can stomach the risk Tagovailoa presents in this range—think of how the Broncos were okay with Drew Lock in round two even though he was too rich for their blood at 10 or even 20. Outside of the Jaguars, there aren’t many obvious suitors to grab the best quarterback remaining on the board.

19) Las Vegas Raiders: A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson

The Raiders add another piece from Clemson’s dominant 2019 National Championship team after drafting two with their first four picks a year ago.

Terrell is a seasoned starter for a bluechip program with the tools and a reliable, physical presence in coverage.

20) Jacksonville Jaguars: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

Jefferson shouldn’t go much lower than this and has the talent to go in the top 15. He’s masterful before the catch to get open and buy space for himself with apt mid-air adjustments, on top of good size and speed.

21) Philadelphia Eagles: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

Mims is a vertical threat and acrobatic-catch savant; he’s been a big riser in the process who should be gone by round one.

22) Minnesota Vikings: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

The Vikings are in a tough spot as they try to extend their contention window in the middle of this defensive rebuild. Gladney is a great cornerback to take in this range, he might not be a pure lockdown, No. 1 corner but he’s competitive as ever and has good instincts with 4.4 speed.

23) New England Patriots: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

Love doesn’t seem like a Patriots type at all until you really think about it; he can get wild and has a strong arm like Jacoby Brissett but also improvise like Jacoby and do all the play-action bootleg, on the move stuff that Jimmy Garropolo excels at. Only Love has arguably a much higher ceiling than either of them.

It’s clearly the biggest need on the team and gives the Pats a QB to simplify and innovate their offense.

24) New Orleans Saints: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

If Love is still available he might be the pick but Murray is far from a consolation prize. His ability to fly sideline-to-sideline and attack downhill would fit nicely in New Orleans where their veteran secondary can protect the raw linebacker in coverage.

25) Minnesota Vikings: Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State

While a Stefon Diggs replacement should be in the works the Vikings’ defensive re-load continues with Gross-Matos, a raw edge rusher who fits what Minnesota does and could be turned into a nice piece.  

26) Miami Dolphins: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

After nailing the top two picks, Miami goes with the best player available taking the reliable, versatile Alabama safety.

27) Seattle Seahawks: Josh Jones, OT, Houston

From this pick until the last selection in round one there are several spots to move up to. With a reliable offensive tackle like Josh Jones dropping to them at 27, they might actually stay put—they’ve traded down in round one the last eight drafts.

28) Baltimore Ravens: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

The Ravens defense adds a perfect cover linebacker who wasn’t starting at LSU until his final year, the sky is the limit for Queen.

29) Tennessee Titans: Austin Jackson, LT, USC

The Titans seem poised to go with a big-body in the trenches, the real question is on which side of the ball? Rather than take A.J. Epenesa on defense, they go with Jackon over the more physically imposing Isaiah Wilson, as Jackson’s upside is almost as high as the top-four.

30) Green Bay Packers: A.J. Epenesa, DL, Iowa

Green Bay probably should go offense but their defensive front-three rotation is still unreliable. Epenesa’s college production, length and power are going to translate immediately for a team that needs to win now.

31) San Francisco 49ers: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

Diggs is just super solid even if not the flashiest. He’s an ideal fit in the Niners’ press heavy cover-3 defense.

32) Kansas City Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, LSU

The Chiefs have options remaining at cornerback—their biggest hole—but they can also add a running back and there has been lots of buzz around Clyde Edwards-Helaire who is coming off a 55-reception season for the national champions. CEH’s receiving ability combined with his powerful but quick running style would fit perfectly in KC.