DNVR Exclusive: 2019 Press Box Predictions

 

When the Washington Nationals defeated the Houston Astros in the World Series in seven games, it marked the first time in MLB, NBA or NHL history that the road team won every game of a championship series. 

Regardless of the odds for such an occurrence – there was a 0.47% chance (or 1-in-200) – it seemed just as unlikely the Nats would even make the postseason after a loss on May 23rd dropped them to 19-31 and second to last in the NL standings.

While virtually no one could have predicted any of these outcomes, ten of Colorado’s best baseball reporters attempted to prognosticate the year back in March before the Marlins’ José Ureña threw a called strike to the Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon for the official start of the 2019 season. 

Affectionately dubbed as The Ten With The Pen, these Rockies reporters shared their opinions with DNVR about what would transpire for the Rockies as well as the rest of the league, from the major award winners to the eventual World Series Champions.

Rockies wins

Prediction: 89.2 (average)

Actual: 71

With a range of 9 (low of 85 and high of 94), all of the purple pundits had Colorado safely above the .500 mark in what ultimately became one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history.

Rockies’ MVP

Prediction: Trevor Story and German Márquez (tie), 3 votes

Actual: Nolan Arenado

Márquez was tabbed with leading the 2018 starting rotation to another year of improvements before having his season derailed in late August to inflammation in his throwing arm. Had he been able to flash his ace-type abilities during the final month-plus of the season, he could have been a contender for this accolade.

Between Story and Nolan Arenado, it’s a very close race depending on which metric preferred for wins-above-replacement. Story was either tops in WAR (6.4 to 5.7, Baseball Reference) or second (5.8 to 5.9, Fangraphs) for the team lead when compared with Arenado. The 26-year-old showed that 2018 was no fluke and that he was a legitimate MVP-candidate and perennial All-Star shortstop.

Arenado’s sweep of the Gold Glove and Platinum Glove ranks ahead of Story’s Silver Slugger, but ol’ fashioned offensive numbers push Arenado ahead as he bested Story in home runs, runs batted in, and each of the rate stats: batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

Rockies Cy Young

Prediction: Márquez, 7 votes

Actual: Márquez

While Jon Gray had a lower ERA than Márquez by nearly a full run, El Bateador de Plata topped the Gray Wolf in all other categories. The two were identical in Fielding Independent Pitching (4.07), but Márquez was better in xFIP, suggesting he was unlucky this season whereas Gray benefitted from luck.

The truest consensus by the pundits of the eight categories, Márquez was the odds on favorite to be the top pitcher for Colorado. He was on pace for a career-high innings pitched before missing six starts during the final five weeks of the season.

Similar to Arenado and Story battling for top MVP honors with the Rockies, Jon Gray also vied for the title of top hurler after bouncing back from an erratic 2018. Once again, depending on which resource used, one could take a more simplistic approach and look to WAR to decide the case in this category.

Surprise Team

Prediction: San Diego, 3 votes

Actual: Arizona Diamondbacks

After a solid start to the campaign in 2019, the Padres slipped dramatically in the second half, leading to the firing of manager Andy Green. While the addition of Manny Machado seemed to make a significant difference for San Diego, it was the rise of rookies Fernando Tatis Jr and Chris Paddack that helped them most in the win column before both youngsters missed parts of the second half.

Even with the losses of Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, and Patrick Corbin entering the season, Arizona was competitive throughout the season. They were without Zach Greinke for the final two months of the season and still finished ahead of the Cubs and Phillies in the Wild Card standings.

Disappointing Team

Prediction: Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies (tie), 2 votes

Actual: Cubs and Phillies

The posse of the press box got this one correct as both clubs missed the playoffs after making significant free agent additions, leading both managers to become free agents after the final day of the season. Entering the year, only the Marlins could have expected such a poor season, so many NL clubs felt disappointed in the results of 2019. 

Bold Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers, 1 vote

Considering they won the NL West for the seventh straight season, the Dodgers didn’t disappoint during the regular season. The playoffs, however, is a horse of a different color.

NL Manager of the Year

Prediction: Mike Schildt, 5 votes

Actual: Schildt, Craig Counsell, Brian Snitker

Bold Prediction: Bruce Bochy, 1 vote

Though most baseball fans – or pundits – couldn’t pick Schildt out of a lineup before the season started, it was clear from the voting that there’s value in believing in the Cardinals’ way. St. Louis won the NL Central – thanks to Colorado’s three-game sweep of Milwaukee – after nearly every team in the division made an offseason push at winning the pennant, including Cincinnati. 

NL Cy Young Award

Prediction: Max Scherzer, 4 votes

Actual: Scherzer, Jacob deGrom or Hyun-Jin Ryu

While voters had an easy time selecting Scherzer and deGrom, many made the unfortunate error of focusing solely on ERA in their selection of Ryu as the third choice. Depending on the source, Stephen Strasburg finished 2nd or 3rd in WAR, whereas Ryu was 8th and 5th by the same metrics.

Had Scherzer not missed any time on the IL and made 32 starts like deGrom, it would have been an unquestioned fourth CYA for Mad Max.

Bold Prediction: Freeland, 1 vote

Sadly, this prediction aged as poorly as the 2016 DBacks snakeskin gradient uniforms.

NL MVP

Prediction: Christian Yelich, 3 votes

Actual: Yelich, Cody Bellinger or Anthony Rendon

Before missing the final month of the season, Yelich had shifted Milwaukee into a real contender for the NL crown, aiming to lead the Brew Crew to the franchise’s second World Series appearance and first-ever championship.

Even with the additional four weeks of games, Cody Bellinger couldn’t elevate his numbers enough. While his Dodgers won the division while Yelich’s Brewers fell one game short of the NL Central, it’s clear Yeli had more impact than Belli.

Rendon may have been the man during the Fall Classic, all voting occurred before the playoffs, so the events of October are irrelevant in the postseason awards. 

AL Pennant

Prediction: Houston, 6 votes

Actual: Houston

DJ LeMahieu and the Yankees did everything he could to spoil this prediction, but the Astros delivered with the best roster assembled in team history. The addition of Zack Greinke was one that few could have foreseen, even an hour before the trade deadline expired. Back with two AL Cy Young Award finalists (Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander), a Rookie of the Year candidate (Yordan Alvarez) and a lineup aided by players acquired in the draft following three-consecutive 100-loss seasons, Houston led the regular season with 107 wins and would reach their second World Series in three years.

NL Pennant

Prediction: Los Angeles, 3 votes

Actual: Washington Nationals

The Dodgers had two opportunities to bury the Nats in the NLDS, but the dudes from DC kept fighting. LA did have the best record in the National League and were just one win back of Houston for tops in the game. Clayton Kershaw failed once again when it mattered most. The final image of baseball’s best regular-season ace over the last decade sitting on the bench, staring blankly after another spoiled opportunity is heart-breaking, regardless of your fanaticism.

World Series Champion

Prediction: Houston, 6 votes

Actual: Washington

It was a World Series for the record books as the road team went 7-0 and six of the games best starting pitchers faced off to make 11 starts: Cole, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. It also meant for the first time in Game Seven history, two Cy Young Award winners went head-to-head.

Ultimately, the franchise formerly known as the Montreál Expos won their first ring and the District of Columbia is now home to the best team in the world for the first time since 1924.