Diving into the draft: When is the right time to pick a quarterback?

If you believe that you’re a quarterback away …

If you have a top-12 pick and do not feel that you’ll have a pick that high in the next few years …

If you are in a draft with four legitimate top-10 quarterback prospects …

… then the time to draft one is now.

For starters, the odds of finding a quarterback worthy of a second contract are better in picks 4-14 than they are for the first three picks — at least since 1990. The odds of finding a quarterback to guide your team to the NFL’s final four are also a bit better.

Round 1, Tier 1 (picks 1-3):

• Total QBs picked: 34
• Percentage to reach at least a multi-year mid-tier level: 47.1 (16 of 34)
• Percentage to make the Pro Bowl: 55.9 (19 of 34)
• Percentage to take a team to at least a conference championship: 38.2 (13 of 34)
• Average seasons as primary starter: 6.29
• Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value per pick: 59.06

The abject busts such as Ryan Leaf, Jamarcus Russell, Akili Smith and Heath Shuler stick in the memories. But the top of the draft has generally yielded quarterbacks who, at minimum, helped their teams … although the only ones picked in the top three selections since 1990 to guide their teams to Super Bowl wins had the same surname: Manning.

Round 1, Tier 2 (picks 4-14)

• Total QBs picked: 23
• Percentage to reach at least a multi-year mid-tier level: 47.8 (11 of 23)
• Percentage to make the Pro Bowl: 43.4 (10 of 23)
• Percentage to take a team to at least a conference championship: 43.5 (10 of 23)
• Average seasons as primary starter: 4.39
• Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value per pick: 43.13

The range in which the Broncos pick tends to be slightly more boom-or-bust, with a lower percentage of Pro Bowlers but a higher percentage of quarterbacks who failed to launch.

Passers taken from picks 7 through 11 since 1990 include Byron Leftwich, Josh Allen, Andre Ware, Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, Josh Rosen, Blaine Gabbert, Matt Leinart, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler and Daunte Culpepper. Good or bad, there is something for everyone in that group. This serves as a reminder of the risk — but as the next few paragraphs show, success becomes far more fleeting even into the back half of Round 1.

With the success of Allen, Mahomes and 2020 No. 6 overall pick Justin Herbert, this range appears to be transforming into the sweet spot. Will the Broncos take advantage?

Round 1, Tier 3 (picks 15-32)

• Total QBs picked: 24
• Percentage to reach at least a multi-year mid-tier level: 25.0 (6 of 24)
• Percentage to make the Pro Bowl: 16.7 (4 of 24)
• Percentage to take a team to at least a conference championship: 16.7 (4 of 24)
• Average seasons as primary starter: 3.21
• Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value per pick: 32.79

Comparable overall efficiency numbers to the second round — just one of four quarterbacks taken from picks 15 to 32 since 1990 merited keeping around on a second contract as the starter — shows that the drop-off actually happens in Round 1, not in Round 2.

The Pro Bowl percentage of 16.7 isn’t much better than the Round 2 percentage of 14.7.

While this range yielded Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Lamar Jackson, it has also seen Jim Druckenmiller, Paxton Lynch, Johnny Manziel and Brandon Weeden. Teddy Bridgewater (No. 32 overall, 2014) is actually one of the rare success stories of this range.

Round 2 (picks 33-64)

• Total QBs picked: 34
• Percentage to reach at least a multi-year mid-tier level: 20.6 (7 of 34)
• Percentage to make the Pro Bowl: 14.7 (5 of 34)
• Percentage to take a team to at least a conference championship: 14.7 (5 of 34)
• Average seasons as primary starter: 2.50
• Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value per pick: 23.26

Of the five Pro Bowl QBs taken in picks 33-64 since 1990, three of them came in the first four picks of the present-day’s second round: Brett Favre, Andy Dalton and Derek Carr. Colin Kaepernick, who led the 49ers to Super Bowl XLVII, also comes from out of the first five picks of Round 2, going No. 36 overall in 2011.

This is also the round that yielded Drew Lock in 2019. If he pans out, he would become one of the rare success stories of the past 30 years for quarterbacks taken in the 40s.

The other quarterbacks taken in picks 40-49 since 1990 include John Beck, Matt Blundin, Tony Banks, Jake Plummer, Drew Stanton, Pat White, Todd Collins, Tony Sacca, Jimmy Clausen and Kellen Clemens. Of those 11 quarterbacks, only Plummer and Banks made even 2.5 seasons worth of starts.

Also, how bad was Christian Hackenberg? Of the 35 quarterbacks selected from pick 33 through pick 64 since 1990, the Jets’ second-round pick in 2016 is the only one who never played a snap in a regular-season game.

Round 3 (picks 65-105)

• Total QBs picked: 51
• Percentage to reach at least a multi-year mid-tier level: 9.8 (5 of 51)
• Percentage to make the Pro Bowl: 11.8 (6 of 51)
• Percentage to take a team to at least a conference championship: 5.9 (3 of 51)
• Average seasons as primary starter: 1.25
• Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value per pick: 13.92

The third round is substantially less successful than the second, even with recent standouts such as Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins being picked in this range. (Cousins was a Round 4 pick in 2012, but his No. 102 overall slot translates to a Round 3 pick this year).

Nevertheless, this is the range in which opportunities often don’t last long; nearly 40 percent (20 of 51) of the quarterbacks selected in this range didn’t even start a season’s worth of games (16).

Round 4 (picks 106-144)

• Total QBs picked: 40
• Percentage to reach at least a multi-year mid-tier level: 7.5 (3 of 40)
• Percentage to make the Pro Bowl: 7.5 (3 of 40)
• Percentage to take a team to at least a conference championship: 2.5 (1 of 40)
• Average seasons as primary starter: 0.95
• Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value per pick: 11.4

Dak Prescott currently flies the flag for quarterbacks taken in the range of what will be the fourth round this year, but this is also the area in which chances dry up; 19 of the 40 quarterbacks taken from picks 106-144 since 1990 never started a game in the NFL.

Round 5 (picks 145-184)

• Total QBs picked: 51
• Percentage to reach at least a multi-year mid-tier level: 3.9 (2 of 51)
• Percentage to make the Pro Bowl: 5.9 (3 of 51)
• Percentage to take a team to at least a conference championship: 0.0 (0 of 51)
• Average seasons as primary starter: 0.53
• Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value per pick: 5.18

The three Pro Bowl QBs from the last 32 fifth rounds are Marc Bulger, Jeff Blake and Tyrod Taylor. Most fifth-round QBs in that time range (27 of 51) never even started a game.

Round 5 is a nice spot to find an understudy; just over 25 percent (13 of 51) of the quarterbacks in this range settled as backups who lasted at least five years.

Round 6 (picks 185-228)

• Total QBs picked: 78
• Percentage to reach at least a multi-year mid-tier level: 6.4 (5 of 78)
• Percentage to make the Pro Bowl: 9.0 (7 of 78)
• Percentage to take a team to at least a conference championship: 3.9 (3 of 78)
• Average seasons as primary starter: 0.82
• Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value per pick: 8.88

Maybe it’s the hope of finding the next Tom Brady, but there have been more quarterbacks taken in the picks that translate to this year’s sixth round than in any round range other than Round 1.

Seven eventually made at least one Pro Bowl. That said, over half (41 of 78) quarterbacks taken in this pick range since 1990 never started a game, placing this year’s sixth round in true lottery-ticket territory — along with the rest of Day 3.

Round 7 (picks 228-259)

• Total QBs picked: 35
• Percentage to reach at least a multi-year mid-tier level: 2.9 (1 of 35)
• Percentage to make the Pro Bowl: 2.9 (1 of 35)
• Percentage to take a team to at least a conference championship: 0.0 (0 of 35)
• Average seasons as primary starter: 0.57
• Pro-Football-Reference Approximate Value per pick: 4.42

With 146 career starts, 2005 seventh-round pick Ryan Fitzpatrick is responsible for more than half of the starts of all of the quarterbacks taken from picks 229 through 259 since 1990. Matt Cassel is the only quarterback taken from the pick 258-259 range since 1990 to make a Pro Bowl.