Diving deep into the Avalanche's successes and failures so far this season

Wednesday night’s loss to Minnesota marked the first time this season the Avs have lost by more than three goals this season. It also marked the second game in a row where the offense came up short following a shutout by Vegas earlier in the week.

Sixteen games into the season, the Avs sit only 15th in points percentage in the league. While they’re still top three within their own division in that stat, their games in hand have pushed them to 6th in standing points in the West.

Take out the outdoor game and it certainly seems like the Avs have had a string of poorly played, sloppy games since coming back from their covid break.

While it feels like the team is playing horribly of late, slumps do happen and it’s worth taking a step back to understand if they actually are playing badly or this is a case of bounces not going their way. It also serves as a good excuse to pop the hood and see where the Avs stand as they creep towards the 1/3 mark of the season.

Even Strength Offense

One thing to remember is that the Avs are behind the rest of the league in games played due to their covid break. As a result, most of the numbers I’m going to talk about will be presented in /60 (per sixty minutes) notation. While I agree it’s a little weird to break down stats with a “if you made the ‘average’ Avs play 60 minutes of five a side hockey, this is what you’d expect them to finish with!” mindset, but right now, rates are more important than raw numbers.

Or, in an analogy – we’re going to be talking about their miles per hour. Some teams have logged more hours on the road and might be closer to the destination, but they’re all (hopefully) going to end up with a 56-game season. How many miles the Avs have traveled to this point is a lot less relevant than checking the speedometer and figuring out how many miles they will travel once the hours even out.

With that said, let’s get to offense and start with everyone’s favorite stat: Corsi. Yes, Patrick Roy, I can hear you groaning from here, but unlike the Roy years, the recent Avs have established themselves as a fixture in the upper half of the league.

Two years ago, they finished 12th with 57.5 Corsi for /60. Last year they improved to 7th with 59.2 CF/60. This year? The Avs are currently sitting third with 60.0 CF/60.

Needless to say, that is a fantastic number and if you’re chucking around 60 pucks in the general direction of the net over the course of the game, some of those are going to go in.

Now, not all shots are created equal and the Avs do have a tendency to activate their defensemen and generate a lot of low-quality chances. Shots from the point do occasionally go in, but that added distance gives the opposing goalie more time to get set and more chance for bodies to get in the way. They’re better than no shot, of course, but repeatedly choosing that trigger point over trying to get a tighter in shot can pretty strongly impact the number of goals you score.

This year, the Avs are 12th in expected goals per sixty at 2.26. They’ve roughly held consistent around that rate for the last 3 years, although have jumped from 18th to 16th to now 12th in that time as the league’s average shifts around.

One thing that has changed is the low danger shots the team produces. In 2018-19, they were right around average at 25.5 low danger corsi per game. Last year they jumped to 4th at 27.0. And this year they jumped yet again to 30.3, which is the highest in the league.

Looking at the amount of talent the Avs have on the blueline, and it’s a decent bet that they’re going to be better off than most clubs when firing the puck from that area. Yet those shots aren’t translating to as many goals as expected, as the club’s shooting percentage from those far shots is only 2.15% right now as opposed to the 3.2-3.7% they’ve enjoyed for the past couple of years.

While we’re only talking about a goal or two here, but they have been getting just a touch unlucky from the point.

Unfortunately, the Avs gains in low danger shots have come with minor drops to both their medium and high danger rates. We’re not talking about a huge gap – going from 18.0 to 16.8 medium danger shots (-1.2) and 10.0 to 9.2 (-0.8) high danger shots in a game – but those shots are far more likely to go in. Around 9.5% of medium shots find the back of the net and 18.2% of high danger ones do as well.

The Avs’ overall shooting percentage is 7.24% at 5 vs 5, which is 22nd in the league and much lower than you’d expect from a team of this caliber. It is likely that it jumps a little as they’re slightly below average in each the high, medium, and low danger shooting percentages.

However, the best way to get that number up is by taking juicier shots. Sitting 22nd in high danger corsi for per 60 is a bit troubling and an area where the Avs can certainly improve.

To translate it into hockey cliché – the Avs are not getting the puck down deep enough. They’re taking the easy, open shots at the point instead of working it into the dirty areas. The hockey gods are smiting them a little, but a commitment to more blue-collar hockey on offense will help them more than anything else at this point.

So where is this drop coming from? When you start breaking it down on a per-player basis, some interesting trends arise.

The biggest takeaway is that it’s not just depth players who are struggling to get into these areas. If you compare individual high danger Corsi per sixty from last year to this year, the big time drops have come from Tyson Jost (-2.67 iHDCF/60), Gabe Landeskog (-1.79), Brandon Saad (-1.45), and Val Nichushkin (-1.29).

The top line is still doing fine – Rantanen has been in beast mode for most of the year, and MacKinnon is shooting a little less but doing a better job of picking his spots. Unfortunately, Landeskog’s struggles are causing them to barely break even as a group in comparison to last year.

On the second line, Burakovsky is shooting a bit less, Kadri is shooting a bit more, but Saad has really struggled to adjust to the team after missing training camp.

The third line of Compher, Donskoi, and Nichushkin is a mess with everyone shooting less, and even though Bellemare and Calvert are doing well individually, Jost is a downright offensive black hole at the moment.

It’s difficult to get much going when so many players spread across all four lines aren’t generating the shots they normally do. While there are a couple of Avs who have had above-average streaks to start the year, it’s not been enough to counterbalance this level of poor performance.

This isn’t a case of simply poor shooting percentages; this is a case where about half the team still has another gear they’re struggling to achieve. While you know they can get there, it is definitely concerning that we’re almost a third of the way through the season and this many guys are still struggling.

The offensive process hasn’t been terrible, but there’s still a lot more there to give.

Defense

The Avs came into the year with a defense hailed as one of the best in the league. Despite unexpected injuries and illnesses forcing them to play a ridiculous 11 blueliners in a 16 game stretch, they’re still earning the title.

The Avs defense – including the forwards helping out – currently allows the least Corsi against in the entire NHL. Add in their excellent Corsi for rates, and the Avs are controlling 56% of the chances in their games, also tops in the NHL.

There are some minor nitpicks to be made, mainly that the shots that do get through tend to be of a higher caliber than you’d ideally like. They currently rank 14th in high danger Corsi against per sixty, which isn’t great. The team’s expected goals against also reflects this, dropping them to 9th with 1.98 xG against per 60 minutes of 5v5 hockey. Still respectable, but with a bit of room for improvement.

Digging into a per player look, really the only skater who has taken a step back from last year is Compher. His high danger Corsi and expected goals against have both jumped in a way his linemates haven’t. Otherwise it’s green across the board.

So much of analyzing defense is looking for what isn’t there. The Avs are not allowing many medium or low danger shots. They are very quickly getting the puck and getting it back into their offensive zone at a rate no other club in the league – particularly in the West – is all that close to touching.

Part of that may be switching divisions. The Pacific, particularly the California teams, are known for their habit of drawing back and sacrificing all offense for defense in their games. This is especially true if they get an early lead. That choice does tend to improve defensive numbers, so there could be an external factor at play here.

The team-wide stats seem to back this up. The Wild, Knights, and Blues do a better job of locking down high danger chances against than the Avs, but they struggle far more when it comes to the medium and low danger shots. Looking at expected goals against and all four teams are in a dead heat, owning every spot from 9th to 12th.

However, at the moment, it’s still the Avs sitting at the top of the heap. They also control possession far better than the other clubs. It’s clear there’s a stylistic difference between the Avs and the rest of the division, but they’re still playing very well given their identity.

Since the Avs D are so active on offense, high danger rush chances against are going to happen. Luckily, their quick transition and extra offensive zone time also mean Colorado has more potential for offense themselves, depending on how they choose to use it. That’s who the Avs are, that’s how they want to play, and for them to be sitting among clubs known for tight defense without that added offensive boost bodes very well for them.

So, in short, the Avs defense can clean up some of those high danger chances against, but otherwise they should keep on keeping on. This is how a transition team built on offense plays really good defense. Despite the occasional mental hiccup, there’s not a lot to dislike.

Special Teams

The Avs power play currently ranks 13th in the league at 23.0%. This is an improvement from last year, where it clocked in at 19th and 19.0%.

Structurally, the team is doing a bit better in generating attempts than it did last year, but the real difference is that they jumped from 20th to 6th in high danger Corsi for per 60. That almost by itself has bumped their expected goals from 22nd at 6.04 per 60 to 6.92 (8th).

Granted, that works out to approximately one extra goal in every 30 opportunities, so it isn’t a lot.  But it does show a drastic change in how the Avs are approaching the power play and the shots they are choosing to take. They’re not just relying on the defensemen shooting from the point; they’re working the puck inside and really beginning to generate those dangerous chances that have been utterly missing in the past few years.

They unfortunately have not been rewarded for their efforts. The league average shooting percentage for high danger shots on the power play is around 25%. The Avs are the only team in the league in single digits, sitting at 9.4%. Needless to say, this is their biggest issue with the power play right now. The structure is there, the shots are there; they just need them to start to fall.

The penalty kill is the exact opposite. It currently sits 1st in the league with a sterling 88.7% kill rate. That feels nice and all, but it’s in that position for one reason and one reason alone.

His name is Philip Grubauer.

The Avs are 25th in shots allowed. They’re 20th in expected goals against. Their high danger Corsi sits at 19th and their medium danger at 30th. The only location where they’re not in the lowest third of the league is in save percentage, where they rank 1st.

Even though it feels like the penalty kill has improved from last year, it has not. It’s a house of cards that is going to come crashing down at some point, especially if Grubauer gets hurt. Prepare yourselves now because it will likely be ugly when it falls.

Goaltending

To piggy back on that, the Avs are currently the only team in the league that hasn’t gotten a win from a backup goaltender. With Pavel Francouz on the shelf for unspecified reasons and an unknown timeframe, the Avs have been cycling through a carousel of backup options and terrified to put any of them in net.

Hunter Miska played a game and a half this season. Otherwise, that net has belonged to Grubauer.

He’s done well enough. At 5v5, he’s 24th in save percentage among goalies who have played 300+ minutes and 24th in goals saved above average with a -0.08. Even though he’s faced a higher percentage of high danger shots than most other goalies, his high danger save percentage is also 24th at 80.8%.

As mentioned above, his penalty killing has made up for it. Overall Grubauer has a .923 save percentage, which places him 8^th among goalies with 8 or more starts. Of his 14 games, he’s finished with a total above a .900 in 10 of them. His only real stinkers have been the St. Louis game to start the year where he allowed 4 goals, the Anaheim game where he allowed 2 on a total of 16 shots, and the last two games from this week against Vegas and Minnesota.

He also wasn’t great at even strength against San Jose on 1/28, but did okay at evens against Vegas on 2/22. Other than Wednesday’s game, his numbers have been by and large what you’d expect from him in a year with a lot of goaltending volatility across the league (yes, Canada, I’m looking at you).

As a whole, he’s a reliable middle of the pack starter, but is also one who has a history of injury problems that is logging a ridiculous amount of minutes. He’s getting a ton of help from the team in front of him – he’s averaging only 25 shots against per night, which is the 4th best in the league – so the fact he’s lagging a bit at 5v5 is an area where you’d like to see him improve.

Luckily he’s a bit below his career norms in that category, so that should naturally correct as the season wears on. The Avs also tend to be a team built around outscoring their problems. Even with their offensive issues this year, they’ve come away with the W more times than not while he’s tending twine.

They don’t need their starter to be perfect; only good enough. And Grubauer has gotten the job done.

The big issue is what happens when their penalty kill implodes or Grubauer gets hurt from over-use. There doesn’t appear to be a backup plan in place. With Francouz out until who knows when, the Avs are one bad bend or bonk away from Miska full time.

It’s also worth mentioning that Grubauer is due for a contract at the end of the year, and Francouz is up the summer after that. They’ve been good enough as a tandem when healthy. But the number of injuries both have suffered, often concurrently, have put the Avs in some very tight spots over the past few years. Riding Grubauer like this makes it a lot less likely he’ll be able to buck that trend, and the Avs have no real plan B.

Gambling on his health feels like we’re a 1920s ocean liner about to head into a field of icebergs. The boat is chugging along about as well as can be expected right now and the current performance isn’t an issue, but history is not on our side. If they keep the course, things might be fine, but the Avs are one bad turn away from things starting to sink pretty quickly.

Conclusion

So where do the Avs stand right now? There’s a case to be made that they’re struggling to adapt to their new division. The way teams suck back into prevent defense is likely playing a part in why so many Avs forwards are struggling to get their high danger chances up. They’re being given the point shots instead and settling for them.

There are a lot of bad teams in the West. However it is worth noting that those teams aren’t bad because of their defense; typically it’s their unwillingness to play anything but that loses them games. It’s the polar opposite of the North division this year and a major change from the two-way play of the Central of years past.

Moving forward in the season, the Avs offense does have some adjusting to do. They’re controlling the puck more than they have in a very long time; now they just need to figure out what to do with it. There’s a little cleaning up that can be done on defense, but their biggest gains can come offensively.

Part of that may be translating what they’re doing on the power play to their 5v5 minutes. Like usual, their play at one offensive strength isn’t translating to the other, but this year it’s flipped. Usually it’s their 5v5 process that is strong and the man advantage that is wimpy.

This season, the summer seems to have magically cured whatever it was blighting that system. Credit to the coaching staff – they may not quite be getting rewarded for it yet, but their process this year is going to generate more goals than in the past. Still room for a bit of improvement especially when it comes to in general getting pucks on net, but the fact they’re taking care of the high-quality shots this year is heartening.

The penalty kill and goaltending though… oh boy. That is not going to be pretty when it crumbles. And just like last year, and the year before, crumble it will. It seems strange to be so down on a stat where they’re currently leading the league, but that process is a problem with a capital P.

Add in overplaying and risking injury to Grubauer, and there is a much rougher patch on the horizon. This is an area where Avs management may want to step in before the team gets there to soften the blow, but what they’re doing in net right now is not something that will end well.

The West is tight, perhaps tighter than most expected. And the Avs, for various reasons, have not brought their A-game yet. In the long term, learning how to counter this style of play is going to help the team significantly in the playoffs, but there are definitely some hiccups they’re working through right now with more on the way.

The Avs have the speed and skill and puck control to break through this situation. The talent and opportunity are there; the hard part is done. But the season is nearly 1/3 over and it’s time to start putting everything together.

There’s no reason to worry…. yet. But this is a time of adversity for a still young club. How they respond will have a huge impact on this season, and possibly beyond.