Despite what national writers think, the Rockies don't need to add a bat

On Friday, in a press conference officially announcing the Colorado Rockies’ signing of closer Wade Davis, GM Jeff Bridich said he “would be surprised” if the team added any more relievers or starting pitchers.

That only leaves one type of player left to consider.

In both this conference and in an exclusive one-on-one interview with BSN Denver, Bridich has given every indication that he is still on the prowl for a bat.

But while some fans and national media members are climbing all over each other to be the loudest to claim this Rockies offense isn’t good enough, we at BSN Denver submit that they are a year late to this conversation.

In April, we wrote that a group that had high expectations among many of these same pundits was likely to disappoint in the run production department. And they did.

Before that, in September, we wrote that this version of the Rockies would be different. We wrote that, despite the average fan or talking head not knowing their names, this team could win 90 games (fell three short) on the strength of their young starting pitching.

Now, the same folks whose projection systems would have seen the Rockies sign Jason Hammel or Doug Fister for five times the amount of money—blocking the likes of German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, and Antonio Senzatela—are arguing that Colorado must look elsewhere for offensive help.

As was the case this time a year ago with the pitching, those who are looking past the young talent, or putting too much stock in the numbers from last year, are missing a huge piece of the pie.

It is absolutely true that the Rockies need better offensive output if they are to return to the postseason and make a deep run, but that doesn’t necessitate roster changes. It’s not enough to simply prove that the lineup underwhelmed a year ago without looking at the complete picture.

The Outfield Roulette

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs recently wrote about the Rockies “failings” so far this offseason, citing this particular bit of analysis:

Rockies after Davis/Shaw/McGee signings project at just 78.2 wins. Best bullpen in NL, but that's still only worth ~2 wins above NL avg, and it's built via massive overpays (at least in cases of Davis, McGee). Meanwhile, C/1B/corner OF remain unresolved problems.

— NEIFI Analytics (@NEIFIco) December 29, 2017

Putting aside that this article leaves out Raimel Tapia and Chris Iannetta entirely, a huge logical mistake is happening in the assumption that Colorado needs one specific player to step up and provide production from each of these spots. This is a misunderstanding of the equation placed before the club. The actual equation looks something like this:

Ian Desmond (2018) + Gerardo Parra (2018) + David Dahl (2018) + Tapia (2018) > Carlos Gonzalez (2017) + Desmond (2017) + Parra (2017)

The combination of Desmond, CarGo, and Parra put up an rWAR of -1.1 in 2017. And that was with Parra’s positive 0.9.

Dahl and Tapia don’t need to evolve into superstars, and Desmond doesn’t need a full return to his former glory, to easily surpass that number. Any of those players putting up a solid 2.0 campaign would be far from surprising, and they each would serve as insurance for one another. A mild rebound from a healthy Desmond and just one of their two highly prized prospects taking a step forward—not even producing a predictable breakout season—and Colorado could easily net three or more WAR out of their corner outfield in 2018.

To leave Tapia out of the conversation after he hit over .370 during a month-long span between June and July last season is a critical oversight. And for more on why you can’t just “yadda yadda” Dahl, check out this recent breakdown from Jake Shapiro.

If either Dahl or Tapia does become a star…

Who’s On First?

Of course, the outfield situation becomes a little less secure in terms of the options available if Desmond needs to pick up significant time at first base.

But whether it’s The Versatile One or a newly re-signed Mark Reynolds, it looks incredibly likely they will split time with Ryan McMahon, who is going to be a major factor to start the year for the Rockies. This puts a bit more pressure on him to succeed, but, like with the outfield, he doesn’t need to be a world beater to best last year’s production.

After a phenomenal first few months, Reynolds’ production sank fast, and the Rockies ended up getting a -1.7 rWAR out of the first-base position. So, again, our equation is whether or not the combination of Desmond, McMahon, and some other potential signing (likely a Reynolds type if not the man himself) can put up a better number than that. With the insane season McMahon now has under his belt—earning two promotions in one year and making a joke out of the Triple-A level—that is an easy eventuality to picture.

McMahon (2018) + Desmond (2018) + Free agent (2018) > Reynolds (2017) + Desmond (2017) + Parra (2017)

If it doesn’t work out for any of these young players, all of whom have earned a legitimate opportunity at an MLB roster, the Rockies can always make trades before the deadline to bolster the lineup.

The Next Chapter For Story

We will have much more on this in a separate article coming soon, but remember how Trevor Story finished 2017 looking like the potential star player we saw in 2016? Yeah, that stood in stark contrast to how he started the year and a little more consistency from a hard-working player who appears to have adjusted back to the league could go a long way.

Story (2018) > Story (2017)

Behind The Dish

The common fallacy continues as analysts blast the Rockies for not addressing the offense while not addressing the Iannetta in the room. Last season, the Rockies got an abysmal -1.5 rWAR from the catcher position. Chris Iannetta’s career low was -0.2 in 2010 with Colorado. He put up a 1.8 last season for Arizona and has been positive for ten of his 11 years in MLB.

Chris Iannetta (2018) + Tom Murphy (2018) + Tony Wolters (2018) > Tony Wolters (2017) + Ryan Hanigan (2017) + Tom Murphy (2017) + two months of Jonathan Lucroy (2017)

Can’t Count On Me

Perhaps the most prevalent pushback we’ve gotten in this conversation comes with the phrase “how can you count on…” followed by names like Dahl, Tapia, and McMahon. The simple answer is that you can’t.

The existence of Desmond, Parra, and probably Reynolds or someone like him, means the Rockies aren’t actually counting on any of these top prospects for anything. The question is whether or not they will be Plan A or Plan B going into the season.

The flip side of that coin, though, is that those players can’t simply be ignored or dismissed in one sentence. Marquez, Freeland, Senzatela, and Jon Gray didn’t come out of just anywhere, and neither did these guys.

Resisting the temptation of greener grass has turned the Colorado Rockies from an MLB afterthought into a legitimate threat in the toughest division in baseball. They’ve stayed patient all this time and grown the new generation of starting pitchers who’ve changed a decade’s old narrative over the course of just two years.

If they recreate that success with a similarly talented group to step into the batter’s box, they could establish a dynasty.