Denver Nuggets welcome back a rejuvenated Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic to Pepsi Center

 

Sitting at 8-13, the Denver Nuggets are about where we expected them to be roughly a quarter of the way through the NBA season. They sport a bottom five net rating and offensive rating and a bottom six defensive rating while playing, depending on where you look, a top-10 strength of schedule so far.

Michael Malone has been frustrated with his team’s lack of focus defensively, specifically on how they have defended the 3-point line, allowing opponents to shoot a fiery 38.7 percent from deep – and at times their overall effort. Those two concerns have been well warranted, but while mental and schematic errors can be attributed to starting three quasi-rookies for much of the season, (Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris and Nikola Jokic/Joffrey Lauvergne) and the lack of talent displaced by multiple injuries to presumptive starters, their lack of energy, which I’ll add has been better as of late, cannot.

That energy will be key tonight as the Nuggets open a three game home stand, starting against the Orlando Magic and a stretch of seven winnable games before setting out on another treacherous Western Conference road trip that has stops in Phoenix, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Portland and Golden State. Denver does have one home game in the midst of that trip when they play host to  Cleveland Cavaliers on the first half of a back-to-back before traveling to Portlandia the next night.

Regular Season Game 22
Magic (11-9)	@	Nuggets (8-13)
7:00 PM MT	on	Altitude, 104.3 FM

 

Missing Gary on offense

Gary Harris hasn’t played since he was diagnosed with a concussion in the Nuggets 91-80 loss in San Antonio back on Nov. 27th. Since then, they are 2-3 and have given much of Harris’ minutes to veteran guard Randy Foye, with Malone even choosing to close games with the vet. The results have been mixed and while Foye’s play on the court doesn’t pass the eye test, the Nuggets have surprisingly been better defensively with Foye playing the majority of minutes at the two. Before Harris went down, Denver was allowing 105.4 points per 100 possessions, yet over the last five games, that number has shrunk to 102.8. Somewhat predictably on offense, they have gone from scoring 101.6 points per 100 possessions to 99.7, seemingly due to Foye’s historically bad year offensively.

Now let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This defensive uptick is not due to Foye’s prowess on the defensive end, but possibly due to this roster grasping Malone’ defensive principles more and more. It also speaks to Harris, who is regarded by many as one of Denver’s better perimeter defenders, maybe not having the type of impact we thought he did.

Gallo’s minutes

Danilo Gallinari popped up on the Nuggets injury report with a “left knee strain” before Denver’s game in Philadelphia, the same knee he had MCL and ultimately ACL surgery on which forced him to miss the entirety of the 2013-14 season. After playing 39 minutes and pouring in 24 points, grabbing seven rebounds while not being hampered by that knee one bit, it was revealed Gallinari in fact has a deep bone bruise in that knee and while the injury is “painful,” the swingman plans to play through it noting that he has “played with fractures and other stuff” before.

We’ll see how much Malone lets Gallinari play through that pain, especially considering his checkered injury history and the fact that he’s currently averaging 34.5 minutes per game, his highest total since 2010-11 when Gallo was with the New York Knicks. I can’t blame Malone for wanting to win games in his first season in Denver, but there’s no need to push Gallinari to his limits early in a rebuilding season when he’s already experiencing pain in his knee.

Projected Starters
Nuggets		Magic
Emmanuel Mudiay Randy Foye Danilo Gallinari Darrell Arthur  Joffrey Lauvergne		Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Channing Frye Nikola Vucevic

Fournier peaking

One-time Denver Nugget Evan Fournier is enjoying a bit of a renaissance this season in Orlando. He got out of the gates hot, registering point totals of 22, 19 ,30 and 29 in four of the first five games of the season, then took over more of the offensive load when Victor Oladipo was out with a concussion and all of a sudden is leading the Magic in minutes per game (33.2) and scoring (16.3). Since returning from his concussion, Oladipo initially struggled and is now penciled in as Orlando’s sixth man with Channing Frye now starting alongside Nikola Vucevic in the Magic’s frontcourt – giving Fournier even more freedom and room to operate on offense. I’d expect Fournier to be in full revenge mode tonight in Denver.

While Fournier is a creator on offense, he’s a burden defensively. When he’s on the court the Magic are surrendering 101.6 point per 100 possessions or about a middle of the pack defense, but when he’s off the court, that number drops down to 94.6.

The Skiles leap is already in full effect

You know what you’re getting when you hire Scott Skiles. He may never get you to a conference finals, but will instill a defensive identity and disciplined mentality in a young team. It might just have been what Orlando needed and the results are already apparent. Orlando has the eighth best defense in the league this year, allowing opponents to score just 99.3 point per 100 possessions and in their last six games, that number has dropped to 95.9, good for fifth best league-wide.

The lineup that Orlando has gone to recently, with Oladipo coming off the bench is very Skiles-y. He’s able to trot out a bench unit of Aaron Gordon, Shabazz Napier, Andrew Nicholson, Jason Smith and Oladipo, who are currently defending like they’re protecting Fort Knox. They’re allowing just 73.6 points per 100 possessions in their last six games and have a respectable 102.3 OffRtg for the amount of offensive talent on the floor.

Injury Report

Nuggets:

Danilo Gallinari – Questionable – Left knee bone bruise

Gary Harris – Doubtful – Concussion

Jusuf – Nukric – Out – Right hip arthroscopic surgery

Magic: 

Aaron Gordon – Questionable – Right ankle sprain

C.J. Watson – Doubtful – Left calf sprain