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This weekend’s mailbag hits on a number of subjects including Nikola Jokic‘s ceiling, the trade chatter surrounding Kenneth Faried, what to expect from Jamal Murray next season and more. As always, submit your questions to me during the week @NBAWind, @BSNNuggets, or email me wind@BSNDenver.com.
Do you see a future All-Star on the Denver Nuggets? If so, what is his (or their) ETA to the big stage? – Ryan Blackburn, Highlands Ranch, Colorado
Based on what I saw last season, Jokic is the player currently on the Nuggets’ roster that has the best chance of reaching All-Star status. He’s ahead of Emmanuel Mudiay in terms of reaching that elite status and the center position is usually weaker than point guard meaning he’d have less competition from others at his position in getting a spot as an All-Star. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that if Jokic takes another big step forward this season he could be knocking on the door of an All-Star game in 2017-18, but he’d have to get in via a coaches selection. He probably won’t be popular enough among the All-Star voters in two years to garner their votes, that might have to wait until three or four more years down the line. Mudiay and even Murray have All-Star potential as well, but it’s too early to tell with them what a possible ETA would be.
Do you think Faried’s time in Denver is over? If so, what kind of value do you think he would get on the trade block? – Mac Smith, Denver, Colorado
Over? No. But it’s obvious from the reported trade that almost brought Paul Millsap to Denver and Zach Lowe and Marc Stein’s recent comments that the Nuggets are actively shopping the Manimal. I think the Nuggets will try to unload him before the season starts, but the trade market for him, as Lowe and Stein mentioned, looks bleak. I don’t have a great read on what his value is around the league right now and teams are likely looking at him as a guy they’d bring off the bench, as I’m sure Denver wishes they could. Would Faried accept a role like that? I’m guessing in the right situation, on a playoff-bound team, he would. If Denver does want to get some value in return for Faried, they’d likely have to include another asset. In that situation, you’re looking at someone like Will Barton, who is on one of the league’s best contracts, but also was solely responsible for winning the Nuggets four or five games last season. He’d be hard to part with, but the addition of Murray, the rising Harris, and Wilson Chandler returning from injury make him somewhat expendable.
What kind of development do you see from Jokic this season? All star? Top 10 center? Plateau after last season? – Brian Wiora, Atlanta, Georgia
Next season is big for Jokic in terms of proving those outside of Denver that his rookie season that put him 8th among all players in RPM and 10th in DRPM, wasn’t a fluke. Those lofty numbers had to do with the limited minutes he saw, particularly at the beginning of the season, but also his stellar play. I do think he improves this season, particularly defensively and begins to look like the average to slightly above average rim protector I project him to develop into moving forward. I also expect the Nuggets to play through Jokic often from the 3-point line and elbow, and we’ll see his offensive skills on display more consistently than last season. He’ll come into the season as the starting center and play 30+ minutes nightly, so his usage will also be much higher than it was last season so he probably won’t creep that high on the RPM leaderboard this year. I don’t see Jokic making the jump he did from an unheralded second-round pick to borderline future-All-Star like he did last season, but he’ll still set to make significant strides.
At what point this season does Jamal Murray start? – Brian Wiora, Atlanta, Georgia
Thanks for the multiple questions Brian. I’m not sure I can say for sure that Murray starts a single game next season. He’ll probably begin the year by playing around 10-15 minutes per game, depending on how he looks in the preseason and earn more minutes from there. One of the things we found out about Malone last season was that if you don’t play defense you’re not going to play, which could hinder Murray. Until he improves defensively, he’s not going to be closing games or playing heavy minutes. He’ll likely get up to 20+ minutes per game towards the middle or end of the season, of course depending on how the Nuggets’ record looks. I may seem slightly down on Murray, but believe me, I’m not. Offensively his skills are incredibly far along for a 19-year-old and he can definitely be a future All-Star and 20+ point per game scorer.
How does the Nuggets’ big man situation sort itself out? – Julie Hyland, Fort Collins, Colorado
Like last season, Denver’s frontcourt is crowded. Jokic, Faried, Darrell Arthur, Jusuf Nurkic and Joffrey Lauvergne all expect playing time, while I’m sure Danilo Gallinari and Chandler will swing down to the four spot on occasion. Lauvergne is likely the guy to get squeezed out of minutes in my opinion. If he makes the team, coach Michael Malone can rely on him to hustle, play his heart out, and play significant minutes in a pinch, but it’s difficult finding minutes for him as the Nuggets’ roster currently stands. If Denver makes a move on Faried that could open up minutes for Lauvergne, but even then I still wouldn’t anticipate getting close to the 17.6 minutes per game he played last season, especially with a healthy and motivated Nurkic in the fold.