Denver Nuggets host ageless Dirk Nowitzki, floundering Dallas Mavericks

While Dirk Nowitzki is as good as ever, the Dallas Mavericks are in a tailspin that could see them on the outside looking in when the NBA playoffs begin in April. The Mavericks’ strong play was one of the surprises of the first half of the season, but the wheels have come off recently as they have dropped 10 of their last 12 games, including a 133-111 drubbing by the Sacramento Kings last night, and currently sit a half game behind the Houston Rockets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Nuggets didn’t fare much better last night as they were swatted out of Staples Center by DeAndre Jordan and the Clippers, so both teams will be looking to get back on track in this evening’s matchup. The Nuggets have played enthusiastic basketball all season, so they have no need for extra incentive, but by beating the Mavericks, they can help to keep the struggling Houston Rockets in the playoff picture, which would lead to an additional mid-first round pick in this summer’s draft thanks to the Ty Lawson trade (perhaps the Nuggets didn’t sell low after all…).

While the Mavericks are fighting for a playoff spot, it’s the Nuggets who have been playing better ball of late, so tonight should put a nice, competitive cap on what has been an exciting series of games this season. The Mavericks won after a historically dominant third quarter in the first game, then ex-Nugget Raymond Felton took over in overtime as the Mavs took both games played in Dallas. The Nuggets managed to fight off another Mavs comeback with an overtime win earlier in March and tonight will be their chance to split the season series with the Nowitzki-led Mavericks.

Ageless Wonder

Despite the fact that he’s playing in his 18th season at the age of 37, Dirk Nowitzki is putting up numbers that most NBA players only dream of. He’s averaging more points (18.7) than he has in two of his previous three seasons, has improved all of his shooting percentages and is averaging more rebounds and steals per game than last year; has the most double-doubles (9) that he has had since the ’11-’12 season (11) and is averaging more blocks per game (0.8) than he has since the 2009-10 season (1). ESPN’s Mark Stein recently published a story indicating that Dirk is considering playing beyond the end of his current contract which ends in 2017, and at his current pace, I see no reason to believe that’s not a possibility.

Frontcourt Rotations

While Kenneth Faried has reportedly been available for a few games now despite lingering low-back issues, Nuggets head coach Michael Malone has elected to continue going with Darrell Arthur and his trio of youngsters in the frontcourt. Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic in particular have done a fantastic job of picking up the slack for each other when one is ineffective or in foul trouble and it has been interesting to see the dynamics of the different pairings. With Jokic and Arthur drawing the majority of the starts recently, they are able to play off of each others strengths very well.

Arthur’s defensive versatility helps make up for Jokic, who can struggle protecting the paint, while Arthur’s ability to shoot from deep opens up the paint for the Joker’s array of nifty post moves. The same can be said of the other frontcourt pairing that’s seen a lot of court time together recently in Joffrey Lauvergne and Jusuf Nurkic.

Offensively, King Joffrey has essentially become a spot-up shooter when he’s on the court with Nurkic and he has shown the ability to knock those shots down, while the Bosnian Beast then has room to maneuver down low, where he generally has a significant size advantage. On the other end of the court, Joffrey’s rebounding and Jusuf’s presence as a rim protector have had a noticeable effect on the Nuggets defense.

Over their last 9 games, the Nuggets are 12 pts per 100 possessions better on defense with Nurkic on the floor.

— Harrison Wind (@NBAWind) March 27, 2016

Matchup Mayhem

While Kenneth Faried’s injury has allowed the Nuggets to find a rhythm with their young frontcourt players, the Mavericks recent injury woes have led to some odd lineups. Both starting point guard Deron Willaims (left abdominal strain) and starting small forward Chandler Parsons (right knee surgery) are out once again, meaning the Mavs starting five is likely to consist of three players 6-foot-5 or under.

Felton (6-foot-1), Barea (6-foot, at best) and Wesley Matthews (6-foot-5) – and two players over 7 feet tall – Dirk Nowitzki (7-foot) and Salah Mejri (7-foot-two). It will be interesting to see if Malone sticks with his current starting five, or if he makes a move to match the small ball backcourt the Mavericks put on the floor. Despite the fact that the Nuggets will have a four or five inch height advantage at each backcourt position, it seems like Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris and JaKarr Sampson have enough lateral quickness to stick with their shorter counterparts defensively, so these will certainly be matchups to watch.