Denver Nuggets finally have a healthy roster, minus Wilson Chandler, entering February

 

January was an exciting month for the Denver Nuggets, bookended by overtime losses to the Golden State Warriors and Indiana Pacers. The January 25th 119-105 loss to the Hawks was the only game in the month decided by more than eight points, and if you take that game away, each of the other 14 games were decided by an average of four points.  There were some great crunch time performances and some terrible ones (see Saturday’s loss to Indiana), but a month like that can only help a young team itching to jump into the next tier of NBA relevance. In the end, the Nuggets ended up with their third six-win month (counting Oct/Nov as one month) of the season

February brings with it the second consecutive month without a stretch of four games in five days for the Nuggets and only two back-to-backs, so once again, scheduling cannot be used as an excuse. This will also be the first month with a completely health roster (minus Wilson Chandler), so it will be interesting to see how coach Malone’s rotations shake out with so many youngsters looking for minutes. Having such a frontloaded schedule pays off again too as most of February’s schedule is filled with teams hovering around the low end of the playoff races in each convference.

February Overview

Total Games: 12

Home and Road: 5 and 7

Back-to-Backs: 2 (1 home-road, 1 road-road)

4-games-in-5-nights: 0!

Games vs. over .500 teams: 7

Game-by-Game Projections (all times MST)

Game 1: Denver vs. Toronto, 7:00 pm, Monday, February 1

The Raptors bring an 11 game winning streak to Denver, having just swept their seven-game homestand and capping it with a 111-107 win over the Detroit Pistons on Saturday. The Nuggets will have to hope that getting back on the road is enough to knock Toronto off kilter as they’ve been firing on all cylinders during their streak, but start on a six-game road trip in Denver, followed by a matchup against the Suns the following night. Denver will be hungry for a win after after dropping two of the three games on their recent road trip, so look for the Nuggets to take advantage of a sluggish Raptors team looking to find their road legs.

Prediction: Nuggets win (1-0) (19-30 overall)

Game 2: Denver @ Utah, 7:00 pm, Wednesday, February 3

Denver heads back out on the road, this team heading west to face the Utah Jazz, who have alternately had impressive wins recently (102-73 over the Hornets) as well as a handful head-scratching losses. Rudy Gobert is the type of rim protector that the Nuggets have struggled with all year, but Jusuf Nurkic has looked better of late and might be able to provide a solid post presence inside if Nikola Jokic struggles with Gobert’s size. Rodney Hood has also played very impressively of late, so he will be one to watch. The Nuggets match up well with Utah, but are probably a year away from playing consistently at their level. Combine that with the Utah home advantage and look for the Jazz to pull away late for the win.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (1-1) (19-31 overall)

Game 3: Denver vs. Chicago, 7:00 pm, Friday, February 5

The Bulls come to Denver in game five of a seven game road trip having faced both Los Angeles teams, the Jazz and Kings before their stop in the Mile High City and continuing on to Minnesota the next night. Their previous matchup in Chicago featured a 26 point, 19 rebound, four block performance from Pau Gasol that led to a 99-90 Bulls, victory, so the Nuggets bigs will have to challenge themselves to avoid that kind of dominance again. Gary Harris missed the last game with a concussion, and he will certainly be needed to try to keep Jimmy Butler in check. Ultimately, expect the Nuggets to take advantage of a road-weary Bulls team on the front-end of a back-to-back and get a win at the Pepsi Center in their last game at home before the All-Star break.

Prediction: Nuggets win (2-1) (20-31 overall)

Game 4: Denver @ New York, 11:00 am, Sunday, February 7

A perfect appetizer to the afternoon’s big football game, the Nuggets face Carmelo Anthony and his shiny, new sidekick Kristaps Porzingis for the first time this season in an early game on Super Bowl Sunday. Other than the early tip off, there are no scheduling quirks, so this will be a good taste of how these two teams match up against each other. Porzingis has been a revelation for the Knicks, but Nikola Jokic brings a similar skill set to the table, so we’ll probably learn a lot about both of them in their battle down low (and on the perimeter too, really).

Carmelo has been playing the best team ball of his career this season, finally looking for wins over stats, but Danilo Gallinari will certainly have something to prove against his former team in this one, and that will be the difference in the outcome. Gallo will come up big in Madison Square Garden and lead the Nuggets to victory just hours before a very non-Italian quarterback leads another Denver team to victory on the opposite coast. Go Broncos.

Prediction: Nuggets win (3-1) (21-31 overall)

Game 5: Denver @ Brooklyn, 5:30 pm, Monday, February 8

The Nuggets will travel across the East River to face the Brooklyn Nets on Monday night and hope to avoid a letdown after an emotional win over the Knicks (and ensuing Super Bowl celebrations). The Nets will be playing their third game in 4 nights after a back-to-back starting with a home game against the Kings, and followed by the Battle of the Eastern Conference Basement in Philly on Saturday. There aren’t too many scenarios that would cause me to pick the Nets over the Nuggets, but this situation comes close. Having a night off in New York alone is cause for concern, but when that night also features the Super Bowl, that, itself, features another Denver team raises all sorts of red flags. That being said, the Nets are still the Nets, so I cannot, with a clean conscience, pick the Nets to beat my Nuggets.

Prediction: Nuggets win (4-1) (22-31 overall)

Game 6: Denver @ Detroit, 5:30 pm, Wednesday, February 10

An emotional New York sweep could certainly lead to a let down in the Nuggets final game before the All-Star break and The Pistons have been playing good ball this season, so it should come as no surprise if the Nuggets lay and egg in this one. Andre Drummond is a matchup nightmare in the paint and Palmer High School’s Reggie Jackson is always good for a show, so if Denver can come out of Detroit with a win, it will be a great sign of a maturing young basketball team. Unfortunately, in this case, I don’t see that happening.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (4-2) (22-32 overall)

Game 7: Denver @ Sacramento, 8:00 pm, Friday, February 19

Much to Danilo Gallinari and Nuggets Nation’s chagrin, the Nuggets won’t have many distractions over the All-Star break with only (as of this writing) Emmanuel Mudiay and Nikola Jokic participating in the BBVA Compass Rising Stars Challenge on Friday night in Toronto. That’s not entirely true, as Gallo was selected as a mentor for the second annual Basketball Without Borders Global Camp over the weekend in Toronto, which, to be honest, is probably a much more worthy endeavor than jogging back and forth launching threes or lobbing passes during the actual All-Star game, so good for Gallo on that one. Regardless, I believe the Nuggets will get the best of their old coach in his new haunts their first game out of the break, but it should be a fun one to see how Gary Harris and Mudiay handle the singular play of Rajon Rondo and the bevy of bigs attack Boogie Cousins down low.

Prediction: Nuggets win (5-2) (23-32 overall)

Game 8: Denver vs. Boston, 3:00 pm, Sunday, February 21

The Nuggets will have revenge on their minds as the Celtics visit the Pepsi Center. The Celtics blitzed the Nuggets out of Boston in their January matchup and Jared Sullinger won the battles in the paint, but in the end, Gary Harris could only shut down one of Boston’s stable of able guards at a time as they shot their way to a 111-103 win. Denver will certainly make a priority of ball security, but the Celtics’ solid defensive play, along with their talented backcourt will once again prove to be too much to overcome.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (5-3) (23-33 overall)

Game 9: Denver vs. Sacramento, 7:00 pm, Tuesday, February 23

While Denver preparing for, playing and recovering from their game against the Celtics, the Kings will be sitting around, twiddling their thumbs as they have three full days off before taking on the Nuggets again in Denver. The Kings will certainly be looking for revenge, especially with George Karl visiting the Pepsi Center for the second time since his unceremonious departure from Denver after the 2012-13 season. In any other situation, the Kings’ upcoming games against the Spurs, Clippers, Thunder, Grizzlies, Mavs and the Spurs again, would be a perfect recipe to take advantage of a team looking ahead in their schedule, but if this team will ever fight for Coach Karl, it will be in this game.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (5-4) (23-34 overall)

Game 10: Denver @ LA Clippers, 8:30 pm, Wednesday, February 24

The Clippers handled the Nuggets easily in their first matchup of the season with a 11-94 victory, however the Clippers will likely be without Blake Griffin, who had 18 points and 10 rebounds in that game. The Nuggets lost despite 20 points and an astounding 18 rebounds from Gallo, with 16 of his points coming from the free throw line. Depsite the lack of Griffin, it’s unlikely that the Nuggets are able to pull out a win on the second night of a back-to-back, especially after a couple of emotional games against their former coach. Look for the Clips to cruise in this one as the Nuggets fall to .500 on the month.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (5-5) (23-35 overall)

Game 11: Denver @ Dallas, 6:30 pm, Friday, February 26

The Nuggets get their second look at the Dallas Mavericks, again facing them in Dallas after falling 92-81 in their first game of the series. The final score doesn’t tell the whole story considering the Nuggets’ third quarter was one of the low points of the season as they didn’t score for the first nine minutes of the quarter and only managed 2-19 shooting, 1-8 from the 3-point line and committed seven turnovers en route to an embarrassing five points for the period. Adding insult to injury were plays like this:

I don’t expect this game to go down like that, but I do think Dirk will do his thing and lead the Mavs to another win over the Nuggets at home. Hopefully the young Nuggets will be taking notes from one of the best clutch performers of all time.

Prediction: Nuggets lose (5-6) (23-36 overall)

Game 12: Denver vs. Memphis, 7:00 pm, Monday, February 29th (Leap Day!)

I was hoping to scour the Internet for some sort of statistical gem about NBA games on Leap Day, but all I came up with is that Jerry Lucas once pulled down an insane 40 rebounds on Leap Day back in 1964 for the Cincinatti Royals. The Grizz have pulled off a couple of close wins over the Nuggets so far this year, including a 102-101 heart-breaker in Denver that was well within reach for the Nuggets until the closing minutes. The Nuggets will be ready to go after a couple days off and four straight losses. Jusuf Nurkic should also be full strength at this point, leading to the battle with Marc Gasol we’ve been waiting for all season. The Nuggets will defend the home court this time and even up their record for the month.

Prediction: Nuggets win (6-6) (24-36 overall)

Final Prediction for February: 6 wins, 6 losses (24-36 Overall)

The Nuggets finally break even for a month, but finish with just six wins once again. The good news is that most prognosticators were unsure of whether this was a 24 win team, and the Nuggets will have matched that number with a month-and-a-half yet to play. More than the records though, February will be a month of discovery as the rotation players separate themselves from the benchwarmers and the rumor mill will fly as the February 18th trade deadline approaches. With a glut of big guys who deserve minutes and a couple of veterans languishing on the bench, expect to see a move or two that influence the final outcome of the month.

Previous Predictions and Actual Results

Oct/November: Predicted (9 – 9), Actual (6 – 12)
December: Predicted (7 – 8), Actual (6 – 9)
January: Predicted (8 – 7), Actual (6 – 9)