Denver Nuggets final report card: Nikola Jokic

 

Over the next few weeks, the BSN Nuggets staff will review the Nuggets season, player-by-player. We’ll look at their performance from 2015-16 and forecast what type of impact they’ll make next season.

Reflecting on 2015-16

Nikola Jokic’s rookie season was a stunning success, largely because of two contributing factors: opportunity and hard work.

Most international second round draft picks amount to nothing in the NBA, and if they do find a role, it generally takes several years to cement themselves as mainstays in the league. Jokic, the No. 41 pick in 2014 out of Serbia, faced that known hurdle when he joined the Nuggets a year after being drafted.

To be that Marc Gasol-esque outlier, Jokic had to get serious about being in NBA shape. He needed a team dedicated to maximizing its investment in him and a chance to play. Those two ingredients cooked together in the Nuggets’ skillet this season to vault Jokic years ahead of his expected development schedule and raise his ceiling to heights unimagined just a year ago.

With help from the Nuggets training staff, Jokic lost about 30 pounds through a combination of improved dieting and intense workouts after Summer League and still, Jokic was seemingly too raw to find much court time as the season got underway. But Jusuf Nurkic wasn’t recovered from his torn patellar tendon, and wouldn’t return until January while Joffrey Lauvergne hurt his back in the third game of the season.

Suddenly, Jokic had his opportunity.

The offseason work he put in prepared him for his close-up, and he quickly showed off his rare combination of size and skill. His vision as a passer, ability as a reliable rebounder and touch around the rim kept him on the floor for long stretches at a time. Jokic opened eyes around the league with a breakout game on Nov. 18 in San Antonio, finishing with 23 points and 12 rebounds, while displaying 3-point range for the first time.

Big men with long-distance range tend to attract eyeballs these days. The stretch four phenomenon has evolved into a search for the perfect stretch five, theoretically unguardable by opposing centers if they can score efficiently from the rim all the way out to the 3-point line.

Jokic’s outstanding game against the Spurs earned him his first start two nights later versus Phoenix. However, the big man scored just six points on 2-6 shooting, revealing that he wasn’t the holy grail stretch five – not yet.

The 21-year-old averaged 10.0 points, 6.0 boards, and 2.4 assists over December and January, earning him a trip to the Rising Stars game during All-Star Weekend. As if he was preparing Toronto fans for his upcoming Rising Stars appearance, Jokic went off for a career-high 27 points, with 14 rebounds on Feb. 1 against the Raptors.

An unlikely star was born in Denver.

Jokic’s potential is brightest on the offensive end. His ability to pass out of the high post like a new era version of countryman Vlade Divac is a rare skill these days and simply not something many players want to do on offense.

His passing fundamentals are sound in traffic, out of the low post, high post or off pick-and-roll actions.

Jokic, more importantly, excelled in the pick-and-roll with fellow rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, showing flashes of what the future of the franchise probably looks like.

In the pick-and-pop he is a threat as a shooter or passer who can extend the play by finding a great shot for teammates.

By season’s end, Jokic had started 55 games, averaged 21.7 minutes and posted per game numbers of 10.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.0 steals. He also had the fifth highest Player Efficiency Rating for rookies 20-years-old and younger, who played in a minimum of 70 games. The four players who had a higher rookie PER were Shaquille O’Neal, Karl-Anthony Towns, Chris Paul and Chris Webber.

That kind of production earns you top marks in my grade book.

Final report card grade: A

Looking ahead to 2016-17

The Nuggets face a decision down the road with three centers vying for playing time in Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, and Lauvergne. While the latter seems destined to be a backup, Jokic and Nurkic can each make a case to start.

The center position is unique as teams can generally only play one at a time, unlike the more nebulous guard and forward positions. With only 48 minutes to work with, it’s difficult to find enough minutes for two guys without bruising egos.

Late in the season, coach Michael Malone experimented with lineups that featured the two Balkan big men sharing the floor. While enticing and sometimes potent, the drawback is obvious. Jokic is simply not quick enough to guard most fours on the perimeter and Malone wants a defense-first approach and could become fed up with that deficiency quickly. Not that the Twin Towers lineup shouldn’t be deployed, Malone should just be judicious and have a quick hook when the other team exploits a Jokic mismatch.

Foot speed is not the easiest attribute to improve, but the Nuggets’ staff will surely try with the 21-year-old Jokic. The rest of the tweaks needed to his game are the kind development staffs enjoy. The dirty work in terms of his development was mostly done last summer, meaning the coming months are all about refining his game heading into next season.

With the jovial Jokic, the Nuggets don’t need to worry about confidence issues, sulking from riding the pine too much or hesitancy buying into the team’s long-term plan. Instead, upping his consistency from 3-point range, refining his defensive principles and bulking up his frame to better absorb and initiate contact should be the priorities this summer. Also, more reps between Jokic and Mudiay in the gym and at Summer League can only help this franchise’s future.

The Nuggets have a player in Jokic that they now know is special. The next step is putting him on a track to reach the upper echelon of the league at his position. Jokic wildly exceeded expectations in year one, but in 2016-17 fans, coaches, teammates, opposing scouts and media alike will expect great things.

Can the Joker deliver when everyone sees him coming?