Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots: What to watch for

Who: Denver Broncos (8-5) vs. New England Patriots (11-2)

What: NFL Week 15

When: 2:25 p.m. MST, Sunday, Dec. 18

Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High

TV: CBS

Announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Radio: KOA (850 AM), The Fox (103.5 FM)

Line: Patriots -3; O/U 44

Notable:

• With three wins in the last four games, the Broncos lead the all-time series 30-21, including the postseason, and are 21-9 in Denver.
• Tom Brady, the NFL’s all-time winningest quarterback, is 202-61 (.768) in his career – again, including the postseason – but is 6-9 (.400) vs. the Orange & Blue, including 2-7 in the Mile High City. The Broncos are the only team Brady isn’t at least .500 against, and Denver has accounted for a third of his nine playoff losses.
• In the Bill Belichick/Brady Era (2000-present), the Patriots are a league-best 89-45 (.664) in regular-season road games, including a 6-0 mark this season as the NFL’s lone undefeated squad away from home.
• During that same regular-season span, the Patriots own a league-best plus-162 turnover differential. The Packers are a distant second at plus-79, and the Broncos are 15^th at a plus-7.
• When the Patriots have finished with a turnover advantage in a regular-season game during the Belichick Era, they are a league-best 134-12 (.918). When they haven’t, they’re merely average – even though the record is still in the league – at 64-59 (.520).
• With New England established as a field-goal favorite, the Broncos are a home underdog for the second time this season and the fifth time since the start of 2015. Denver has won all four of the previous games, including a pair of victories over the Patriots last season.

What to Watch For

• Winning the first quarter – The Broncos’ slow starts generally have been viewed as nothing more than a frustrating oddity, but this would be the wrong game in which to fall behind too far, too soon. Denver has scored a league-worst 23 first-quarter points and have been outscored 70-23 in the opening 15 minutes this season. The Patriots, meanwhile, are the league’s highest-scoring first-quarter team, outscoring the opposition 103-29. That’s when the opposing offenses get thrown off their game plans and start to press, bringing the above turnover statistics into play. The Broncos and QB Brock Osweiler got away with falling behind early and coming back to clip the Pats in last November’s regular-season meeting, but that’s not exactly a recommended plan of attack.
• Moving the chains, putting up points – Over their last two games, the Broncos have managed a measly 23 offensive points, and keeping drives alive on third down – the aptly described money down – has been a major issue with the team converting only 4-of-24 opportunities. And that was against the defenses of the Jaguars and Titans. We all know Von Miller, the No-Fly Zone and the rest of the Denver ‘D’ can mask a myriad of deficiencies, but it’s going to be a tall task against a Patriots team averaging 29.8 points per game since Brady’s return in Week 5. In other words, long drives, scoring drives, and big plays are going to be needed from Trevor Siemian and Co. That will be tricky against a New England defense actually surrendering fewer points (17.7) per outing than the Denver D (18.6).
• Pats’ plan of attack – Belichick and Josh McDaniels are the chameleon game-planners of the NFL, adapting the Pats’ attack each week to best take advantage of the opponent’s defensive weaknesses. And with Brady and both a top-seven passing (280.3 yards per game) and rushing (115.5 yards) attack, that hasn’t been tough to do. So what can Wade Phillips and the Broncos’ D expect Sunday afternoon? If I knew, I’d be coaching and not writing about this game, but the most certain bet is that the Patriots don’t want Brady absorbing anything close to the beating he took in last season’s AFC Championship Game, so expect a lot of screens and quick passes to running backs James White and Dion Lewis, tight end Martellus Bennett and slot receiver Julian Edelman mixed in with a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount – only New England’s third 1,000-yard rusher since 2004 – to test the Broncos’ 29^th-ranked run defense (127.2 yards per game), which will be without key linebacker Brandon Marshall for a second straight week.
• Don’t forget about special teams – Nearly lost in Denver’s two wins over the Pats last season were the muffed punt that jump-started the Broncos’ comeback during the regular season and the missed extra point that put the Patriots in an early hole they never quite climbed out of in the AFC title game. And with the Patriots fumbling and flubbing away a pair of kick returns in last Monday night’s otherwise-comfortable win over the Ravens, it’s an opportunity the Broncos must take full advantage of it presents itself again Sunday. On the flip side, Denver must avoid the special-teams gaffes which greatly helped the Chiefs to an overtime win in the Broncos’ last home game. As it stands, that 30-27 overtime loss could wind up being the difference from Denver winning a sixth straight AFC West title and missing the playoffs altogether.