Denver Broncos Fantasy Preview: Changes aside, Manning remains a stud starter

With the midway point of the preseason at hand, that means your fantasy draft is right around the corner and BSN Denver has you covered with a series of in-depth looks at the Denver Broncos’ top prospects. First, we go under center which a certain 39-year-old quarterback will be doing a little more of this season …

Two years ago, Peyton Manning shattered all the major NFL single-season passing records and, in the process the notched the best fantasy QB season (412 points, going by the NFL default scoring system) in league history.

But, as stated, that was two seasons, a coaching change and several pass-catching personnel swaps ago.

So, now at age 39, what can we reasonably expect – numbers-wise – from Manning playing in a new offense where two of the main goals are a better run-pass balance and “making things easier” for the aging QB?

First, let’s re-visit last season. Fantasy general managers were eager for the follow-up to Manning’s record-shattering season – making him the first quarterback drafted in the majority of leagues – but, despite a hot start, the expected regression came in right on schedule and, in the end, Manning lost a full 750 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes and 101 fantasy points off his 2013 figures.

That equals a down-year disaster for most quarterbacks, but that only dropped Manning to fourth at the position, trailing only Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck (356 points a piece) and Russell Wilson (332).

In short, he’s far from a fantasy disaster. But fantasy is what-have-you-done-for-me-lately endeavor, and in that light, Manning’s 2014 season had a disastrous ending as he averaged only 230 passing yards and threw for a paltry six TDs while tossing an equal number of picks over the Broncos’ final six games, including the embarrassing home playoff loss to the Colts.

Now blame Manning’s injured quads, his age or the Broncos’ late-season emphasis on the ground game – I fully subscribe to option No. 1 – but it left a sour taste in more than a few fantasy owners’ mouths as the QB’s below-pedestrian finish derailed a number of squads in the fantasy playoffs.

Bad timing, to be sure.

And now add in Gary Kubiak’s new offense, more emphasis on C.J. Anderson and the running attack, no Julius Thomas or Wes Welker and possibly more rest for Manning who has accounted for 98.4 percent of the Orange and Blue’s regular-season pass attempts – and an even higher percentage of the total snaps – since coming to the Mile High City in 2012 and it paints a rather-grim 2015 fantasy portrait for Manning, right?

Hey, let’s not go overboard in the other direction.

A check of the latest Fantasy Pros expert consensus rankings – which amalgamates the opinions of 48 fantasy analysts from various outlets – has Manning right back as the fourth-ranked QB, behind the familiar trio of Rodgers, Luck and Wilson.

In terms of the always-useful average draft position (ADP) metric, Manning also comes in fourth behind the same three QBs.

The old man is even a spot higher on The Huddle’s QB ladder with one of fantasy’s longest-running sites projecting him to throw for 4,570 yards and 37 TDs – just a slight step down from last year’s totals (4,727 & 39) and right about at his marks in his Denver debut season of 2012 (4,659 & 37).

I lean a little lower than that – say, 4,300 yards and 34 scoring passes. Kubiak’s Broncos will run more, particularly in the red zone, and we’ll actually see more Brock Osweiler – he of 30 career regular-season pass attempts in three years – particularly late in games where the outcome isn’t in much doubt.

Still, 4,300 and 34: That’s still a no-doubt top-10 QB season, even in this pass-first and pass-often age.

In summary, if you swoop up Manning in the mid rounds as your starting fantasy quarterback, spend the rest of your time worrying about the areas of your team that actually need attention.