Colorado's Consistency Crisis: Road stumbles cast shadow on MacKinnon's special season

The Nashville Predators went on a tear after a 9-2 loss to Dallas on February 15th delivered a gut punching wake up call. They’ve won eight straight since that point.

The Colorado Avalanche scored five goals in back-to-back games before a disappearing act snatched their flood of goal scoring right before their eyes and their struggles on the road this season continued.

Their 5-1 loss in Nashville can be partially attributed to strong play from Juuse Saros in net… but a misguided third period, poor puck management, and some penalty trouble prevented a genuine comeback effort.

“They deserved to win tonight. We needed more to get past [Juuse Saros],” Ryan Johansen said postgame.

It’s concerning that the Avs let important division points slip away at Game 62 of the season. Good habits shouldn’t be a destination for the team at this point in the year.

Their quest for consistency has been filled with challenging lows and their disappointing road record looms.

They Matter When They Matter

Faceoffs. One of Colorado’s strongest periods was their first. They tied Nashville in the shots battle (10-10) and the game was still within reach. The Preds didn’t strike first until past the midway point and Nathan MacKinnon responded within a couple minutes.

Ryan McDonagh reset in transition. Cody Glass carried the puck in on a partial rush. He used Colton Sissons on his right side to move the puck wide. Jack Johnson tried to pull up on Sissons, but he still found a seam and got the pass off to Glass in the slot.

Ross Colton was the first forward back and tried to tie up his lane, but Glass wristed the puck around him past Alexandar Georgiev from a tough angle. Colton lost Glass a little bit on the play and should not have discounted him.

Shortly after, Devon Toews reached his hand up to bat down an airborne puck in his own end. He used his stick to breakout the puck and spring Colorado on the rush.

Mikko Rantanen and MacKinnon led the two-on-one and Rantanen slid the puck across to MacKinnon on the left-side. MacKinnon lowered his shoulder deceptively and picked the far-side corner under Saros’ glove.

MacKinnon scored and extended his point streak to nine games (16 points), tied with William Nylander for the second-longest active run behind only Connor McDavid (10 GP).

Nashville controlled possession throughout the entirety of the game, and I believe it starts with losing the faceoff battle in the first period.

The Avs haven’t been the strongest faceoff team for a while, but their possession game usually makes up for it.

They posted a rough 29% at the faceoff dot through the first. Colton and Johansen struggled down the middle of the lineup. Colton posted a 33% on the night and lost four of five d-zone starts. Johansen recorded a 17% and lost five of his six draws.

Faceoffs are an extension of the possession battle and can provide an edge. Colorado needed the edge. Their game was too incomplete in other ways to sacrifice it.

Poor Decisions, Early Check-Out

The Avs still had a chance after the first two periods. They tied the shots battle again in the second (9-9) and fewer chances were exchanged between both sides.

They challenged Saros with three rush attempts. Two came from MacKinnon and another came from Colton.

Saros also allowed three rebounds in two periods whereas Georgiev allowed just one.

Nashville led in high-danger opportunities through the opening 40 and both goals-against came from between the hashmarks.

Colorado allowed zero rush attempts to reach Georgiev, but they needed to protect the house better.

Glass’ second goal came after some shoddy d-zone coverage. Glass was left alone in the low-slot and Georgiev was caught from another tough angle.

Nashville pressured Colorado in their end with a determined effort. An initial attempt missed and they got to work behind the net.

Josh Manson used his stick to try and break up the play, but Tommy Novak snuck the puck from behind the goal line to Glass alone in the low-slot.

Cale Makar left the net-front to confront Novak thinking he’d come around the side and that’s how Glass was left unattended. Glass one-timed it blocker-side.

That’s what makes the third period so frustrating. Even at that point, it was a one goal game.

By the end of the night, Colorado didn’t generate any additional chances on the rush and created just one more rebound opportunity.

The Avs had nine giveaways in the third period. Six came in the opening ten minutes.

They took two penalties and Nashville capitalized on both.

The Avs gave up 27 total giveaways in the contest.

On an individual level, MacKinnon’s night is complicated. He scored the only goal for Colorado, led the team in shots, and won 57% of his faceoffs. He also accounted for a team-high of five giveaways and and allowed the most scoring-chances-against of all the forwards.

But, he has 101 points at Game 62 of the season.

The Jekyll and Hyde-ing of the Avs this year has been a rollercoaster of emotions.

Colorado has the third-most giveaways in the league over their last four games (48) behind Ottawa and Arizona.

Puck management caused them trouble against Toronto and cost them again against Nashville.

Similarly, the Avs were held to their lowest shots total of the game in the third period at just seven shots on net. Their lack of discipline and lack of creation pointed to a team that checked out too early.

Georgiev’s Dilemma

Alexandar Georgiev made 15 of 19 high-danger saves. He was fine through the first two periods, but Juuse Saros was notably one save better through that frame. Eight of Nashville’s ten high-danger opportunities came inside the first two periods.

The two high-danger chances in the third period were of course the powerplay goals-against.

It’s hard to be overly critical of Georgiev because the goal support was not there. He gave them more of a chance to win than they offered in return.

In the goaltender battle, Saros outperformed with a 0.955 save percentage and saves on 12 of 13 high-danger chances.

Georgiev had the chance to tie Patrick Roy for the second-most wins by an Avs/Nordiques goaltender through 50 games in a season (32) behind Darcy Kuemper (34).

Instead his team bailed on him a period early. His expected goals-against sat at three. Could he have been a save better then? Certainly, but he can’t score the goals himself.

Chris Swagner

The 32-year old centerman endeared himself to Jared Bednar quickly. When Fredrik Olofsson was reassigned to the Colorado Eagles, it was clear Bednar wanted to keep Chris Wagner around to see what he’s about.

His game hasn’t been flashy, but he’s brought something Olofsson struggled to bring to the table.

Through seven games, his faceoff percentage sits at 55.6%. He was 63% against Nashville and won three of five d-zone draws.

He picked up an assist against Dallas, dropped the gloves in Chicago, and recorded three shots on net, two additional shot attempts, three hits, and a blocked shot in Nashville.

The fourth line had the best Corsi-for percentage at five-on-five (61.1%) and each finished with at least eleven minutes of ice time, so their usage wasn’t insignificant.

It was more or less his Avs debut on the penalty kill, and that didn’t go well for the team generally speaking, but he’s found a way to impact the game in a short amount of time and it earned some added trust with the coaching staff.

Whether we’re previewing a potential member of the fourth line come the postseason or a future Black Ace – the in-season sample is encouraging to see.