Colorado Rockies Top 25 Under 25: No. 10: Ryan McMahon

Welcome to the BSN Denver Colorado Rockies Top 25 Under 25 where we will rank the organization’s best players who will be 25 years-old or younger on Opening Day 2017.

Our parameters for this list may be different than others it resembles so let us be clear about them:

1. The list was created entirely by the BSN Rockies staff and had no other input from any outside sources.
2. While giving credit for overall (or trade) value, we prioritized an ability to help the MLB club win immediately.
3. In accordance with this, we also prioritized players with fewer question marks but potentially lower ceilings.
4. Statistics were considered on equal level with scouting reports in addition to our own field reporting.

Our observations come through a combination of spending parts of each of the past four (going on five) seasons on the ground on the backfields at spring training and through our regular reporting from Rookie Level Grand Junction, talking to coaches, scouts, and journalists both on and off the record. Of course, countless hours are spent on MiLB.tv and combing over public reports from other credible sources.

No. 10: Ryan McMahon, 22 (3B/1B)

One might be inclined to look at the 2016 season that Ryan McMahon put together and see it as a disappointing down year. But, as McMahon recently told us on the BSN Rockies Podcast, that’s not the way he looks at it.

Yes, he set career lows in most offensive categories in 2016 after demolishing Rookie, Low-A, and High-A the years prior. His batting average, which had comfortably hovered over .300 sank to .242 and his strikeout rate climbed all the way to 30 percent. He hit six fewer home runs in 2016 (12) than he had in 2014 and 2015 (18) but he also had about 20 fewer at-bats. The RBI total of 75 remained steady.

Now here is the context for each of those numbers.

As we have noted, McMahon was, at the age of 21, playing against competition approximately 3.3 years older than him. He was playing in Double-A for the first time and, due to the unique Hartford Yardgoats ballpark situation, didn’t play a single home game in 2016. Further, as we discussed in-depth on the podcast, McMahon was learning first base and splitting his time between there and third for the first time in his career.

When you realize all of that and then note how pitching heavy the Eastern League is, McMahon’s baseline statistics become less a sign of a player struggling at the next level of his development and instead show a prospect who has been aggressively pushed to challenge himself and risen to meet that challenge. His 101 wRC+, on base ability and general run production reveal a player who was actually just slightly above average with the bat despite all those factors we’ve discussed; a new league, a new level, a new position, and no home games all while being one of the youngest guys in the league. Context is king.

Because of all those factors, we at BSN Denver are reluctant to move him down in our prospect evaluations the way some others have understandably chosen to do. Instead of seeing a guy who wasn’t as good as he normally is, we see a guy who held his own despite some hefty obstacles. He also got better as the season went on, a sign of strong mental character and an ability to put coaching into practice quickly.

We’re giving McMahon credit for his off-the-charts intangibles and supreme athleticism which allows him to move around the diamond and lead to a career-high 11 stolen bases last year. Scouts and evaluators have praised his defensive capabilities to BSN Denver at both third and first base, giving him added versatility value.

Furthermore, we expect him to get a lot of time with the MLB club this spring training with Nolan Arenado playing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. While it might be tempting to see a “down year” and move McMahon’s estimated MLB arrival back a year or more, but we don’t think that’s what will happen with him and why we have him in our Top 10.

We expect big things from him in the near future, wherever he ends up landing positionally. If he takes full advantage of the run he is about to get with the big boys and can parlay that into a strong start to the 2017 season, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that McMahon could make his debut as early as September of this year, coming up as a left-handed power bat to help down the stretch run. If all goes well, he could make himself a candidate for the starting lineup in 2018.