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Colorado looks to get back on track in Oregon this weekend

February 17, 2021

BOULDER — It was a long weekend for Colorado fans, as the Buffs split their road trip in Northern California in surprising fashion.

After dismantling the Stanford Cardinal for the second time this season, the Buffs laid an egg against the California Golden Bears on Saturday night. The loss dropped Colorado to fourth in the Pac-12, with a 10-5 conference record and 16-6 overall.

There are a lot of reasons for fans to be disappointed in the loss, and lots of places to place some blame. The team shot just 20% from deep and, for the first time all season, could not capitalize at the charity stripe.

However, one thing you cannot question is this team’s heart.

Yes, they have had some tough losses. Three of their five conference losses are all games they may regret missing after the month. Losing a close game against Washington, blowing a lead against Utah, and now, losing a tough game to the worse-than-average Cal.

But take a step back and look at the bigger picture. This is a team full of 18-to-22-year-olds, electing to play basketball during a global pandemic. The reasons for it are different: some guys play to boost NBA potential, others for the love of the game.

Still, they are all playing. And, for the most part, playing extremely well.

With the soapbox out of the way, let’s dive into the games this week.

A trip to the Pacific Northwest

Ah, the infamous Oregon road trip.

This week, Colorado is playing with house money. They have a strong lead over Stanford for a top-4 finish in the conference but are still largely out of the national conversation.

Although they are outside of the AP Top 25, they do still find themselves at 16th in KenPom rankings and 20th in the NET rankings, in part because of a 7-3 record in Q1 and Q2 games.

Additionally, they have the 14th-rated adjusted offensive efficiency and 38th adjusted defensive efficiency. Very strong numbers.

Yet, in college basketball, it just takes one weird loss to cause a spiral.

For the Buffs, they have done a fantastic job bouncing back from these bad losses. They have not lost back-to-back games yet this season, but they now face one of their toughest tests of the season.

To be clear, a road split would be fantastic. A road split on any trip in the Pac-12 is something to be proud of. The problem occurs when you dominate the better team, but look lost against the inferior one.

This week, nobody should be favoring the Buffs to beat the Ducks in Eugene. Oregon is playing fantastic basketball, but this game very well could determine the third-place finish in the conference. As it stands now, the fourth-place finisher in the Pac-12 would play Stanford, while the third-place finisher would play would play the winner of Utah and Cal.

In the first game between Colorado and Oregon, the Ducks stayed competitive because of two players: Chris Duarte and Eugene Omoruyi. Both are averaging over 17 points per game and are the most lethal weapons Oregon has. Another name to watch is Will Richardson, who is averaging 12 points in limited capacity due to injury.

Even with the Ducks talent, Colorado has both the better offense and defense in this matchup based on the computer metrics. This game should be a marquee matchup.

After Eugene, the Buffs will head to Corvallis to take on the Oregon State Beavers.

Oddly enough, the Beavers feel like an easier second-leg matchup for a few reasons. First, they do not have Matt Bradley. But second, Colorado already beat this team just a week ago when OSU was at full strength. Remember, Cal was down a few players in the first matchup against CU, and the Buffs were also missing Jabari Walker in the second matchup. Head coach Tad Boyle said Saturday that he didn’t know whether Walker would be available for this trip.

So, while any road game in this conference is tough, Colorado needs to take care of business here to prove they can still take care of opponents below them.