Colorado Avalanche fall victim to “those” hockey bounces

As someone who is paid in large part to write about the Colorado Avalanche, I find myself in the uncomfortable position of not even knowing what to say after their bizarre 2-1 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight. There’s plenty to talk about, of course, but it was such a strange game from the ebbs and flows of it to the Avs getting punched in the mouth on a play I’ve never seen before and never recovering.

In the end, it’s their first regulation loss since their frustrating loss in St. Louis to the Blues on the Sunday after the 4 Nations break, so I’m not going to try to write that the sky is falling here. Colorado ended up outshooting Toronto, 39-26, and registered at least 10 shots on goal in each period, so they at least created pressure and had the puck a lot throughout the game.

Only scoring one goal, though, tells you that it wasn’t enough to solve Leafs goalie Joseph Woll, who was excellent. There are a few things to tackle in this, so let’s just talk about it and move on to tomorrow’s game.

Another referee-aided goal against the Avalanche

In the showdown against the Dallas Stars on Sunday, the first goal of the game came when the referee accidentally forechecked on behalf of the Stars and knocked down a Devon Toews clearing attempt, creating an extra possession for Dallas. The Avs eventually overcame that, but it was a frustrating play in the moment. At least in that case the Avs could have done a few things differently to help create a better outcome.

This fiasco tonight that creates the game-winning goal for Toronto? This is a gong show.

THE REF FELL, STOPPED THE PUCK AND SET UP A LEAFS GOAL 🤯 pic.twitter.com/6ffQoPcOFU

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) March 20, 2025

While shorthanded, Toronto clears the puck down the ice. It should be a harmless play that Avalanche goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood cleans up behind his net as the Avs set up to head back to Toronto’s end. Instead, referee Kelly Sutherland falls down, inadvertently falling right into the puck and stopping its momentum.

From there, Toronto forward Steven Lorentz picked it up and walked in on the most unexpected 2v1 you’ll ever see and beat Blackwood. It was the last goal of the game and it stymied any Colorado juice the rest of the game.

More than anything, it’s just a terrible bounce that hurts Colorado. Blackwood should make that save, but you can understand that he’s too deep in his net because he wasn’t expecting to be in that position to begin with. I get it, but make the save, big fella. I’m not really dinging him for it, but it’s about the only realistic thing you could ask differently from any Avs player that doesn’t involve “don’t give up the puck to begin with.”

So, you know, for it to happen two games in a row feels bad. For it to be a game-winning goal on an evening where the Avs outplayed their opponent also feels bad. Add in that Avs defenseman Devon Toews accidentally tapped in the first goal for Toronto and you have a very frustrating result and being thankful that it’s a back-to-back so the Avs can put this out of mind immediately.

Avalanche offense struggles to finish

The Avalanche offense has been scoring with relative ease since the trade deadline…except for their two losses, both 2-1 losses on the road (Minnesota in a shootout and tonight, obviously).

This wasn’t the case of Colorado’s offense not putting pressure or generation chances. They did plenty of both. Here are tonight’s totals at 5v5 with their season averages in parentheses for reference:

• Shot attempts: 64 (62)
• Shots on goal: 29 (28)
• Scoring chances: 32 (29)
• High-danger chances: 14 (10)

So, pretty normal pace for the Avs except creating more high-danger chances than normal. To walk out of that with only one goal, and none at 5v5, is a testament to how great Woll was but also that hockey do be like that sometimes. It’s often an unfair game and this is why the postseason format is built around a best-of-seven series.

The lone Avalanche goal was scored by Val Nichushkin on the power play, a nice little passing play started by Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon. The heavy prices paid by general manager Chris MacFarland to remake the center depth were always going to increase the pressure to show immediate returns on the deals to bring in Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle. Through what is now six games, the two centers have combined for zero goals and three assists.

The fancystats on Coyle have been excellent and they were again tonight. Nelson’s have not been as good but they were much better tonight. Of course, he spent much of the night on the wing alongside MacKinnon instead of driving his own line, so it’s not like he alone took a step forward. For my money, he had his best game as an Av but when the box score reads 0/0/0 at the end, him having three shots on goal, including arguably Colorado’s best scoring chance at 5v5 in the entire game, just doesn’t move the needle a ton. It looked better, but doesn’t everyone when they play alongside MacKinnon?

Coyle has been centering a very effective third line but tonight found himself on a dominant line alongside Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas. I’ll dig into this tomorrow in Studs & Duds, but that line was downright excellent throughout. The only thing it was missing was the finish but they were awesome. Frankly, it’s probably a preview of next year when Coyle is likely Colorado’s second-line center, so get used to some of this.

Still, zero goals at 5v5. MacKinnon has been leading the NHL’s scoring race for much of this season but has gone dry with just two 5v5 points in his last six games and both of those came against the Chicago Blackhawks, who, you know, suck. A lot.

As much as the Avs have improved their depth, this ship still only goes as far as MacKinnon and Cale Makar take them. Those are the guys who have to be making it happen offensively and has not been happening at 5v5. It has been happening at other strengths, so it isn’t as if they’ve gone dark, but in the game’s most frequent state, MacKinnon has not done well recently.

For my money, the shine is coming off Necas a bit and some of the frustrating aspects of his game that held him back from stardom in Carolina are starting to show up here and it’s creating some additional struggles that MacKinnon has not had with the supremely talented Mikko Rantanen able to elevate and bail him out in the past. Tough to say that was the problem tonight when Necas wasn’t with MacKinnon much and drove the hell out of play alongside Coyle instead, but just something I’ve been feeling for a few games. These stretches don’t historically last very long for MacKinnon, but Colorado needs them to end. Like right now.

Every loss makes their hope of chasing down Dallas for home ice in the Central Division’s likely 2-3 matchup in Round 1 much harder. There are going to be nights they don’t play very well (eyeballing Montreal on Saturday as the third game in four nights on the road) and winning is going to be tough as it is. Losing when they play pretty well as they did tonight? Makes a hard job that much tougher.

They’ll be back at it tomorrow against the suddenly hot Ottawa Senators, who look like a sneaky good wild card team out east.