Choppy start leaves Colorado Avalanche in need of a life raft

Sports are a wild ride, and if you have the bug, you know the ebbs and flows of the emotional rollercoaster associated with having a rooting interest in any team. Unlike the ebbs and flows of the earth’s tides, you can’t predict sports. That’s the beauty.

Being cast into the ocean of hardcore fandom — subject to harsh currents or being thrown into rocky shores by cascading waves — is a tall task for even the most determined minds. Sports can be frustrating, try your patience, and drive you nuts. The lows are low, but that’s what makes the highs so sweet.

The dream of any fan is to see your team win a championship. However, the vast majority of fans will not be seeing their team lift the trophy this season. That’s just reality. It is undeniably difficult to ascend to the top of the mountain in the world of sports, and even more difficult to remain within striking distance of the summit consistently.

This is why we, the fans, need our life rafts. Metaphorically speaking, a life raft can be a reason for optimism, a player you would pay to watch every night, encouraging trends that your team is improving, a head coach that inspires, a big win against a rival, etc. Sometimes, fans even fabricate reasons for optimism within their imagination. The most powerful emotion in sports is hope. It’s what unites a fanbase, keeps the addiction alive, and serves as the ultimate life raft.

For the Avalanche, reasons for hope going forward exist. Nathan MacKinnon, the number one overall pick in the draft two summers ago, has the talent required to be the face of the franchise. Gabriel Landeskog is emerging as one of the top young captains in the NHL, and his power game on the left wing will intimidate defenders for at least another decade. When at his best, Matt Duchene is one of the more electric players in the NHL.

Erik Johnson has committed himself to being a stalwart on the blueline for the next eight years. Youngsters Nikita Zadorov and Tyson Barrie are exciting players, and the prospect pool is as rich as it has been for years in Colorado. San Antonio is poised to have one of the most successful seasons for a minor league team under the Avalanche umbrella of all-time.

At the same time, there is an undercurrent with this team that doesn’t bode well if it isn’t addressed. There are some worrying trends with the Avalanche, and Patrick Roy and Co. can’t just keep the status quo, hoping the stars that aligned in 2013-14 are on a trajectory to arrange in the Avalanche’s favor once again. Celestial magic won’t save this team from sinking.

It almost goes without saying at this point, but the Avalanche have not been strong when it comes to generating shots and preventing their opponents from getting shots. While a seven game sample size this season should be taken with a grain of salt, the numbers are alarming (and also conducive to the expected trend based on the past two seasons).

In comments with Pierre LeBrun prior to the season, Roy explicitly stated he wanted the Avalanche “to be an offensive-minded team.” So far, the Avs have had positive moments in the offensive end, and some dry spells where they couldn’t get much going (particularly in the second half of the game in Los Angeles). Overall, they sit 16th in the NHL with 2.71 goals scored per game. Not exactly an offensive juggernaut.

The process behind that offense raises some red flags. Colorado is the third worst team in the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts at the net, at 44.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes. Equally as important, they are second to last in shots on goal per game at 25.9. Say what you will about possession, but this does not appear to be a high volume offense. The Avs currently sport a healthy shooting percentage of 10.4%. Drop that to the 9.1% they shot last year, or the 8.9% league average last year, and their offense doesn’t seem to have improved from last year’s 22nd rated unit which produced 2.55 goals per game.

[pullquote]THE AVS FELT ON THE VERGE OF DOING SPECIAL THINGS WHEN PATRICK ROY WAS HIRED. I’M NOT SAYING I DON’T STILL HAVE THAT FEELING OF POTENTIAL, BUT IT CERTAINLY FEELS FAR LESS IMMINENT RIGHT NOW.[/pullquote]

With the roster acquisitions made this offseason, and maturation of the young core, I expect this team to be getting a lot more work done in the offensive zone. The offensive talent on this roster has shown they can be efficient with their opportunities, but to get to the next level, they need to generate more of those opportunities.

Defensively, the Avs’ numbers get even scarier (Avalanche Corsi t-shirts will be all the rage for Halloween this year if you want to scare your friends). The Avs have given up 71.1 shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 so far this season, which ranks dead last in the NHL by a wide margin. Keep in mind, they are attempting 44.5 shots per 60. The Avs have given up 130 shot attempts more than they have taken so far, a differential twice as big as any other NHL team this season.

Part of this, I believe, is by design. The Avalanche are coached to concede shots from the perimeter, in an effort to prevent higher quality shots due to over aggression on defense. The Avs are quick to collapse down when things get dicey in their own zone, which could actually have some merit as an overall strategy, but it does lead to a lot of rubber being flown toward their net.

Amazingly, the Avalanche are averaging over 21 blocked shots per game so far this season, easily the highest rate in the NHL. Despite the ludicrous quantities of shots they are blocking, they still rank dead last in unblocked shot attempts against this season per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, at 48.8 attempts.

I prefer to be an optimistic fan, and see the glass half-full, but I can’t look at these numbers and shrug them off. The Avalanche’s possession glass isn’t even 40% full at the moment…

Over the past three seasons, the Avalanche’s Corsi shot attempt ratio (CF%) has gone from 46.9% to 43.2% to 39.6%. Their 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 minutes have gone down every season for the past three years, and their 5-on-5 shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes have gone up every season for the past three years. Overall, they were fifth worst in the NHL in CF% in Roy’s first season, 2nd worst last year, and are primed to take the cake this year if they don’t change the status quo.

In Roy’s magical first season with the Avalanche, he instilled belief in his players. The Avs had some amazing statistical accomplishments which helped them take home the Central Division crown. Perhaps no statistics were more important than the Avalanche’s records when leading after two periods and in one-goal games. In 2013-14, when the Avalanche took a lead to the third period, they went 35-0-3. They also sported a league best 28-4-8 record in one-goal games, including a 16-4 mark in regulation contests decided by a single goal (12-8 in OT/SO).

That season, Semyon Varlamov rocked an impressive 0.927 save percentage. More impressive was his 0.940 save percentage when the Avalanche held a one-goal lead and 0.931 save percentage close (trailing by one, tied, or up by one), which likely was a key contributor to the Avalanche’s success in close games or games where they held a lead.

Last season, the Avalanche lost some of their “magic” in one-goal games. The Avs still shut the door in the third period, with a 23-2-2 mark when leading after two periods. However, their record in one goal games slipped to 19-9-12, with a 7-9 record in regulation one-goal games (12-12 in OT/SO).

Semyon Varlamov’s save percentage dropped to 0.921, and he battled injuries early in the season. He also wasn’t quite as superhuman between the pipes when the Avalanche held a one-goal lead, with a much more modest 0.910 save percentage. His save percentage close was also below his season save percentage, at 0.918.

Ultimately, Varlamov was an elite NHL goaltender in 2013-14, and did his best work when the Avalanche held a one-goal lead, and was almost equally as outstanding when the Avs were tied or trailing. Last season, Varlamov was still an above average goaltender, but was far less money when the games were close.

This year, everything has come to a head. Varlamov has really struggled so far, with an 0.869 save percentage. He has also been on the wrong end of two third period meltdowns on home ice, allowing a few soft goals to the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets, which aided comebacks for the visitors.

The Avalanche currently are 0-3-1 in one-goal games this season, and have lost as many games in regulation when leading after two periods over the past two-and-a-half weeks as they had in the previous two seasons.

Perhaps Varlamov can regain his elite form consistently, and put up heroic numbers for the Avalanche. Perhaps the skilled players can put together career years, and shoot at percentages higher than expected. Perhaps the Avalanche can regain the form they had in one goal games in 2013-14. But it would be a risky bet to count on the magic of that season returning on a consistent basis.

The Avalanche need to find ways to improve their game if they want to transform into a consistent winner. Objectively, this roster is just as talented as the the 2013-14 team. However, something is holding them back.

As a leader and inspirational figure, Patrick Roy is as good as they get. As a strategist and teacher of systems, the jury is still out. No head coach in sports history was without weaknesses, and Roy’s ability to ice a hockey club capable of consistently winning the shot battles is in serious doubt in the eyes of many right now.

Personally, I think coaches tend to get on the hot seat too quickly, and Roy’s positive attributes significantly outweigh his shortcomings or areas where he is still learning. The fact of the matter is, the Avalanche are a frustrating hockey club to watch right now. They are losing games, losing leads, and the underlying numbers suggest what is happening on the ice is exactly what we should expect.

The burden of constantly being outshot and out-possessed is tangible right now. Varlamov has faced a ton of shots over the past few years, and that has to be catching up with him. Nobody is grasping their stick tighter than Matt Duchene right now. There is a formula for the Avalanche to win games the way they are playing, but the margin for error is so small, it puts a massive mental burden on the players.

Duchene feels like he HAS to score on every chance he gets, because his chances are growing scarcer by the day. Varlamov knows that he has to be lights out, and that the ice will likely be heavily tilted in his direction when games are on the line. The odds of bad breaks going against you increase when you start losing the shot battle, and those good breaks that can get a player feeling good or bust a guy out of a slump start getting sparse.

You can look at the Avalanche’s season thus far, and say, “well… they were a few plays away from turning a couple of those losses into wins. No reason to panic, right?” Wrong. The reason this is happening is because the Avs aren’t generating the opportunities needed to put teams away, and are giving the opposition far too many opportunities to swing games back in their favor. If the Avs were playing against Katniss Everdeen, the odds would be ever in her favor.

An analogy would be going to the carnival with your friend. Perhaps you are better than your buddy at the carnival game, and the operator realizes this. He decides to give you eight attempts to win, while your friend gets ten. Seeing as you are more skilled, you still manage to win, so the operator bumps you down to seven attempts. The following round you get six attempts to your opponents ten. At a certain point, it doesn’t matter how good you are at the game, it’s going to be very difficult to win. If you play someone equal in talent, or more talented than you… well… things can get dicey in a hurry.

This is essentially what the Avalanche are facing. Even if you argue that they have the skill to pull off wins when they are badly outshot, or can convince yourself that maybe they are getting better chances out of the shots they are taking (this is a huge can of worms for another day), the odds are still stacked immensely against them. At a certain point, I believe players have to consciously (or subconsciously) start feeling those pressures, and it will negatively affect their ability to perform.

The Avalanche were a team that felt on the verge of doing some special things when Patrick Roy was hired. I’m not going to say I don’t still have that feeling of potential, but it certainly feels far less imminent right now.

Patrick Roy and the Avalanche need to figure this out. Whether it’s a change in mentality, an adjustment in the neutral zone, system tweaks, line tweaks, simplification of their game, or a willingness to play certain players, something tangible needs to happen. It doesn’t feel like this team has a talent problem. It doesn’t feel like they have an effort problem. But something feels off.

The Avalanche and their fans need a life raft… because the ocean waters of this season have started off choppy. To get to that life raft, they need to get their shot attempt numbers above water.

*Statistics credit to War On Ice and NHL.com*