Central Division Offseason Roundup: Nashville Predators

 

After our analysis of the St. Louis Blues yesterday, our 2015 Central Division Offseason Roundup series continues with the Nashville Predators.

The Predators’ biggest move in the 2014 offseason was undoubtedly the firing of veteran head coach Barry Trotz, who was replaced by former Philadelphia Flyers coach Pete Laviolette. Laviolette led the Predators to second place in the Central Division, a winning season built on the backs of strong efforts by rookie Filip Forsberg, Mike Ribeiro, and Roman Josi.

Despite their strong regular season, the Predators were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by the Chicago Blackhawks, and we all know what happened from there. The Predators have tinkered relatively little with their lineup, though there are still some noteworthy changes to discuss.

Biggest moves so far:

• Extended C Mike Ribeiro for 2 years.
• Extended C Craig Smith for 5 years.
• Signed D Anthony Bitetto for 1 year.
• Signed C Cody Hodgson as a FA for 1 year.
• Signed D Barret Jackman as a FA for 1 year.
• Acquired C Max Reinhart from CAL for a conditional 2016 4th round pick.
• Awaiting arbitration with C Colin Wilson.

A full list of the Predators’ transactions can be found on their official web site.

The Predators announced Craig Smith’s extension prior to his arbitration hearing but no word has come yet on a contract for Colin Wilson. Likewise, the Predators have yet to re-sign acquisitions Mike Santorelli and Cody Franson, both of whom may depart as FAs.

Which of these transactions stand out to you, BSN staff?

Cheryl: The transaction that stands out has nothing to do with hockey. I realize that teams need to make decisions based on what will help them most on the ice, but Mike Ribeiro again represents pro sports’ tendency to let the behavior of their players slide.

It might seem, on the surface, to be hypocritical of me to say that when I’ve supported Semyon Varlamov since allegations of domestic abuse were first filed against him. However, there was no evidence to support the claims against Varlamov, while Ribeiro himself said in response to allegations of sexual abuse of the family’s nanny that he “tried to blame his actions on drinking too much and also admitted that he did not doubt the account of the events.” The Predators’ decision on extending him leaves me bewildered.

Cole: What surprises me most here are the moves that the Predators didn’t make. Bringing back Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli at the trade deadline looked like a big win for Nashville, but after they underwhelmed throughout the Predator’s first round loss, neither was asked back to the music city. That’s two quality offensive contributors leaving a team that lacks any real offensive punch.

After watching rookie phenom Filip Forsberg lead the team in points and a pair of defensemen in Roman Josi and Shea Weber produce top four point totals, it would have made sense for Nashville to pursue, or at least keep some of its depth scoring pieces around. Instead Nashville is going to lean even harder on their defense to produce offense and for Pekka Rinne to keep the scores low.

AJ: Just to tread water offensively, the Preds had to find a way to bring back Ribeiro and they did. They did an excellent job taking a low-risk deal flier on Cody Hodgson, who probably won’t ever live up to his lofty draft status but could certainly still be a quality NHL player. The Hodgson signing is this year’s version of their signing Ribeiro last year and serves as yet another example of David Poile understanding the limitations of his market and wisely taking chances on low-risk, high-reward prospects to fill their constant desire for high skill forwards.

If Hodgson is a bust, it’s no big deal. If he’s not, they’ll probably lock him up long-term for a reasonable price. It’s great management either way by Poile.

Casey: There was a lot of talk this offseason about the Preds needing to acquire a top center and they’ve still got a bucketload of cap space. Hodgson is an interesting piece for them, but I am not sure Ribeiro or Mike Fisher will be able to fill the 1C role to the extent the team needs. Add to the mix that they might not re-sign Santorelli and I wonder if the Predators aren’t done shopping yet. Unfortunately for them the free agent centerman market is mighty slim. Their system is rife with natural centers but they don’t seem to have found the top guy to play along James Neal yet.

Do you think the Nashville Predators are a better team now than they were last season?

Cheryl: It will depend on how the new players fit into the team’s systems, but in the end, they are neither better nor worse. Cody Hodgson is the wild card here, though. He could provide the team with a scoring third line if he can regain the potential he had as a rookie. That’s a big “if” however.

Cole: I think the Predators are virtually the same team as last season which is to say, I think they’re worse than their point totals from last season suggest.

The Predators rode a very unexceptional group of forwards to the #2 spot in the NHL’s toughest division thanks herculean efforts by Filip Forsberg, Mike Ribeiro, and Roman Josi. If just one or two of those players was over-achieving, then the Predators should find themselves tumbling into the Western Conference wild card or later.

AJ: It’s tough to say they’re really any different. I don’t think they’re much better or worse and I could reasonably see them winning the division or finishing in last place again.

It’s all about Rinne with them. When he was great during the regular season, they were an extremely tough out. When he started to falter at the end of the season and watched it carry over into the playoffs, well, they weren’t as tough to beat. Even average goaltending from Rinne in the postseason would have gotten Nashville past Chicago. As he goes, so go the Preds.

Casey: I would not be surprised to see more movement on the Predators roster before the season opener, but as-is on paper they haven’t changed a whole lot. They are a physical team–not the biggest, but feisty and physical–and when their goaltending is watertight, they can survive their lack of true superstar scoring forwards. Like Cole, I think their points totals from last season may have been inflated a bit due to unusually high numbers from three separate players, but I think they’re still a playoff team.

How do you think these changes will affect the Predators’ performance against the Avalanche?

Cheryl: The Predators didn’t make any moves that will significantly increase their firepower, so the success the Avs will see against the Preds again is in the team’s own hands.

Cole: Like the Blues yesterday, the Predators always make for a tough matchup for the Avalanche thanks to their responsible, defensive, possession heavy style of play. Even with the Avs’ additions to the blue-line this summer, they still can’t go toe-to-toe with Nashville’s trio of Josi, Weber, and Jones. That means the key to beating the Predators next season will be opening games up wide and out-dueling the Predators offensively.

The Predators are still a deep, well coached team with some franchise talent in net and on defense and they should be some of the Avalanche’s stiffest in-division competition for a wildcard spot next season.

AJ: I like how the Avalanche matchup against Nashville. We saw at the end of the regular season what can happen between those two teams when they each have their way. Joey Hishon’s GWG against them came in a game Nashville completely demolished the Avs through the first 35 minutes or so but the Avs hung on and Nashville’s lack of finishers cost them when Colorado’s offense found its legs and took it to the Preds.

Nothing Nashville has done this off-season has changed the dynamic of this matchup. Whichever team succeeds in imposing their preferred play style will likely be the one to walk away with 2 points.

Casey: Nashville’s defense is their greatest asset and when their defense and their goaltending are at their best, they are a tall order for this incarnation of the Avalanche. That being said, we saw multiple instances last year when the Avs could break through that defense if given even the slightest opportunity. The Predators and Jets are the teams I see as the Avs’ most likely playoff competition, as Chicago and St. Louis hover higher up the points scale.

Final thoughts:

Cheryl: I like the Preds as a team and wish, for their sake, they could have done a bit more in the offseason. On the other hand, this is a team that the Avs can beat and, as such, the moves (or lack thereof) were great.

Casey: One thing worth noting here though it didn’t affect their 2015-16 roster directly was the Predators’ lack of a 2015 first-round draft pick. The pick went to Toronto in exchange for Santorelli and Franson. Then Toronto flipped the pick to Philadelphia, who selected Travis Konecny.

The Predators are a deep team at the prospect level, so moving their pick for some immediate help at the pro level was a move that made sense. But given how Santorelli and Franson worked out–especially if both aren’t re-signed–then that stings a bit for Nashville.