Captain Kirk saves the day, analyzing our Week 11 picks

There’s been lots of talk about the ratings being down in the NFL but from our viewpoint, the last few weeks have seen a slew of entertaining games. We’ve seen this ever since padded practices have been limited in training camp, things start slow but as we get to November the playing level really begins to raise itself.

After getting on a nice roll the last couple weeks our numbers fell back to earth, though we still managed to pull off a winner going 2-1 with our picks. YPP went 2-5 in differentials of 5 points or more, while EW was 3-4 with differentials over 2 points. Now part of that is skewed, as we explain below with some close covers altering those records but overall it was not a good week for our metrics.

Our record on the year is back over .500 as we prepare for this final stretch, putting us at 21-20-2 on the year. Hard to think what could have been if not for an awful Week 7-8 stretch in which we went 1-8 to squander all the good that we’d done to that point – 20-12 sure would be much nicer. But we keep on trucking as we’ve fought our way back and can’t wait for the final stretch and the playoffs to shine.

Before all that it’s time, as always, to look at how it all broke down with our picks last week while also giving you a quick preview for Week 12.

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There’s no upset from the Titans this week

We’ve done well for the most part when betting on the Tennessee Titans this season. But not against these pesky Indianapolis Colts who keep defying YPP’s projections like no other team has over a two-year span.

Few plays are more emblematic of this 7 point loss than the 4th-and-1 touchdown from Andrew Luck to T.Y. Hilton on what appeared to be an interception. Instead, the pass went through the defender’s arms and into Hilton’s for the 21-0 lead.

The Titans came out completely flat to start this game, a true sign of immaturity for a team that had a big chance to make a statement and blew it. Tennessee actually took control after going down early 21-0 with over 10 minutes to go in the second quarter, even winning the turnover battle 1-0.

What didn’t happen was the Titans imposing themselves on the ground as they have most of the year, as they averaged 3.6 yards per carry on 97 on the day, with Marcus Mariota contributing 29 on five carries which helped that average significantly.

Mariota was fine in the air, staying turnover-free but he did allow five sacks which cost him. But ultimately what killed this pick was Luck making one crucial play after another, seemingly always with pressure in his face and often on third down. The AFC South race keeps staying close as Indy remains king in these head to head battles in the division.

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Kickers matter more than ever

We had quite the week for kickers in the NFL. This game was emblematic of this as the kickers made a huge difference in a hard fought game with some gusting winds.

The Cincinnati Bengals missed both their extra point attempts as Mike Nugent was not on his game. While the Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, got a fine performance from Dan Carpenter who accounted for 10 of the teams 16 points, making a 54 yarder and being perfect on his one extra point and three field goal attempts.

This was possible in a matchup of two competitive teams that have gone in different directions this season. The Bills keep managing to tread water while Cincy is seamlessly unable to pull out a close ‘W’ this season.

This was our one EW pick of the week as our suggested spread in that metric was -2 for the Bills exactly what the score would have been had Nugent not missed the two extra point opportunities. Neither offense was great in this one but in a close affair with the Bills on the road Rex Ryan’s troops pulled it out.

With Buffalo as a 3 point dog, the cover was right on the money.

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Kirk Cousins ain’t messing around

One betting pattern that’s worked out quite nicely lately has been going against the Green Bay Packers who particularly offensively haven’t looked the part for a while. Early on as a viewer, I must admit concern over Aaron Rodgers burning us like Luck did creeping into my mind. That soon faded because Kirk Cousins imposed himself as the better quarterback on this night.

Cousins took off Sunday night in the second half completing passes of 44, 53 and 70 yards two for touchdowns. His ball placement on each throw seemed to be better every time. If Cousins is able to stretch that field in such a manner against a Packers defense that has actually been the strength of the team, watch out.

With that receiving core and an offensive line that put on quite the performance the Redskins were absolutely rolling on Sunday night.

The Skins are now all the way up to being tied for third in the NFL per YPP with a positive differential of 0.6 yards. Our YPP suggested spread of 7.5 for Washington now seems even a bit conservative.

This was an impressive performance from a team that’s slowly put together a promising roster and we’re now seeing them reap the benefits.

As long as the Pack keep getting more respect than they deserve you can bet that we’ll be picking against them again soon.

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Close games skew the numbers

We teased this in the intro but while YPP did not do well in the big differentials over 5, there are some games that barely lost that could have easily been winners for us. Three of the five losses that came in those spreads were by a combined 3 points; the Jacksonville Jaguars not covering by 0.5 point, the San Francisco 49ers by 1.5, and the Houston Texans by 1 point.

All those games were surprisingly close with none of those underdogs letting the score get too far out of hand. A few plays here or there and that 2-5 week could have easily been 5-2 (the Cleveland Browns and Titans would account for the two losses.)

So while it’s frustrating as ever we need to put things into context, use some good sense without overreacting about the numbers.

As is our weekly tradition, here’s the preview of our EW metric using the pre-season Vegas over/under win totals.