Welcome back for another week of projected spreads and picks. Last week we finally won out with our picks going a perfect 4-0, taking us to 13-2-14 on the season against the spread. Just where you want to be in early November as things finally start to make sense and our stats are more reliable.

Our two metrics have been going in opposite directions as EW was 6-and-4 overall against the spread, while YPP went 2-8 on the week, the second consecutive week in which our YPP numbers just haven’t been clicking. YPP’s struggles are in large part due to differentials that have decreased as Vegas is onto our numbers. So while it seems like it would be logical to forget those figures, using a metric that’s leading to very similar projected spreads as Vegas is still incredibly valuable.

Still, with all that, we’re going to focus on EW until things change with YPP, which might be this week as we have a couple different consensus picks. Also, it’s worth noting EW has been awesome going head to head against the spread with only one losing week since we updated our estimates back in Week 3.

Without further ado let’s get into our Week 10 picks.

Our consensus picks of the week

Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 versus the Los Angeles Chargers

The Jaguars have been a numerical darling for both our metrics for a while now and they won convincingly last week despite sitting their star rookie running back Leonard Fournette. Winning us some money in the process.

The Chargers will present a better challenge than the Cincinnati Bengals did, as they’ve won three of their last four and are now projected by EW to win 8 games.

What makes Jacksonville so appealing is their reliable defense at home where they’re 3-1. The ‘D’ hasn’t just been reliable it’s been the NFL’s best this season with talent at all levels. They’re currently the NFL’s best unit per YPP, are leading the league in sacks, and are tied in takeaways. Their impacting games in a major way.

More importantly for this specific matchup, the Chargers have a great pass rush but not much of a run defense as they’re 31st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. That really plays into Jacksonville’s hand as they have the league’s best rushing attack which is a key against Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.

That half point scares a bit since LA is so uniquely talented at blowing games by a field goal in the final moments, but the Jaguars are just too good of a matchup here to pass up.

San Francisco 49ers +2.5 versus the New York Giants

This is our weekly poop matchup that the NFL seems to offer just about every week and frankly, they can make good bets. What scares most in betting on the Niners is that they’ve regressed a bit since they made the switch at quarterback to C.J. Beathard, but luckily they’re at home and facing the 7-1 Giants who are openly quitting on their coach it seems.

If the Giants secondary plays as poorly as they did a week ago against the Los Angeles Rams there are truly no limits to how bad their season could end – statistically speaking the Niners secondary has actually played better. While New York is quitting on their coach and not playing up to their talent, San Francisco is desperate for a win and they’ve got a team who’s playing just as poorly as them traveling to the West Coast. If they don’t win this week they might not have another shot.

That’s basically the point of this pick as both these teams are evenly matched statistically; the Niners are estimated to win 3.5 games while the Giants are at 4, and San Francisco is actually ranked higher per YPP. Perception says New York should be favored but on-field performance suggests it’s actually San Francisco.

EW pick of the week

Dallas Cowboys +3 at the Atlanta Falcons

First things first, it looks like Ezekiel Elliot’s suspension is going to stick this time, which means there’s no way to truly project the Cowboys outcome without their star back. However, they’re the league’s second-best running team averaging 148 per game, and Zeke’s backups both have a better yard per carry average than he does.

Aside from Dallas’ star-studded o-line which makes them great they also have the threat of Dak Prescott to run which makes stopping their back that much more complex. The Boys are also on a roll as of late and have won their last three by an average of 18 points.

The Falcons on their end are slowly imploding and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is now under heavy scrutiny, while Matt Ryan’s play has fallen off a cliff. Atlanta’s now lost four of their last five and while they’re leading the NFL in offensive YPP (tied with the Kansas City Chiefs), they’re only averaging 21 points per game, 17th best in the NFL which is why EW isn’t nearly as high on them.

At the end of the day, the margins aren’t huge here even for EW where Dallas is a -1 favorite for a 4 point differential. You could argue that the Elliot suspension nullifies enough of that margin to make this an unwise bet, but I’d argue it’s the direction these two teams have gone in the last four games that’s more telling. The Cowboys are hot and the Falcons are not, simple as that. Take the money and run.

BSN ATS’ YPP & EW Week 10 lines

Note: there are two major quarterback injuries that are affecting our projections with the Gren Bay Packers and Houston Texans’ lines. We’ve marked them with an asterisk until we feel there’s been enough time to get a sample size of the backup quarterbacks.

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2017	Advantage	Home Field	EW Suggested Spread	EW Differential	YPP Suggested Spread	YPP Differential
SEA	-5.5	10	10		-7	1.5
@AZ		5		3			-0.5	6
NE	-7.5	10	9		-5.5
@DEN		5.5		3.5		2	-7.5	15
NO	-3	11	3				-3.5	0.5
@BUF		9.5		3.5	-0.5	3.5
GB*		7.5	3		Even	5.5		1
@CHI	-5.5	6		3	Even		-4.5
CLE		3.5						9.5
@DET	-11	9	11	3	-14	3	-1.5
CIN		6						1
@TEN	-4.5	7.5	3	3	-6	1.5	-3.5
PIT	-10	10	12		-9		-7.5
@IND		4		3		1		2.5
NYJ	-2.5	7	2
@TB		6		3	-1	3.5	-2.5	5
MIN	-1.5	10.5	7		-4	2.5	-1
@WSH		7		3				0.5
LAC		8
@JAX	-3.5	12.5	9	3	-12	8.5	-6	2.5
HOU*		9				1		3
@LAR	-11	12.5	7	3	-10		-8
DAL		10	4		-1	4
@ATL	-3	8		3			-5.5	2.5
NYG	-2.5	4	1
@SF		3.5		3	-2	4.5	-4	6.5
MIA		4						1.5
@CAR	-9	8.5	9	3	-12	3	-7.5