Can Jamal Murray replicate Damian Lillard’s fourth-year leap?

 

Fresh off an Adidas promotional tour over 5,500 miles away from the Las Vegas strip in  Greece, Jamal Murray was all smiles as he strolled into Cox Pavilion on the third night of Summer League.

The 22-year-old had every reason to flash a $170 million grin as he settled into his courtside seat next to teammate Torrey Craig and began to take in the Nuggets’ second matchup in Las Vegas behind a pair of jet black flat lens sunglasses. A week earlier Murray and the Nuggets agreed to a five-year max extension which became official last week and will keep the franchise point guard in Denver for the foreseeable future. Murray signed the deal alongside his family, Nuggets president of basketball operations Tim Connelly and a home-cooked meal headlined by two of his favorites: chicken wings and shrimp.

“I want to thank the man above for showing my family and I how life works in a full circle,” Murray said in a press release once the signing became official. “I also want to thank the Nuggets organization for believing in a kid from a small unheard-of town in Canada, and finally to Nuggets fans, I can’t wait to shoot more arrows for you all.”

The Nuggets’ quick decisive move on the opening night of free agency to extend Murray on a maximum-level deal caught some NBA fans and pundits off guard. But maybe it shouldn’t have. The move was representative of how Denver has largely built its roster over the last few seasons.

At the onset of free agency in 2018, the Nuggets immediately came to terms with both Nikola Jokic and Will Barton — two key members of their 46-win team from that season — on contracts that would keep them in Denver for the foreseeable future. This summer the Nuggets followed a similar playbook, doubling down on their continuity with Murray’s extension.

While other West contenders like the Clippers, Lakers, Jazz and Rockets remade their rosters this offseason, Denver is once again banking on internal growth from its key contributors to improve on last season’s playoff run which ended in the Western Conference semifinals.

With the ink barely dry on his max extension, the pressure is on Murray to improve this summer and be a driving force behind a deeper Nuggets playoff run. Entering his fourth season, a year in which point guards like Stephen Curry and one Northwest Division rival made significant leaps, the talent surrounding Murray, as well as his trajectory, have him set up for a career year.

In the summer of 2015, Damian Lillard was coming off his third NBA season and second All-Star appearance, proving that even just a couple years into his professional career he was already among the league’s best up-and-coming lead ball handlers. Lillard averaged 21 points, 4.6 rebounds and 6.2 assists in 2014-15 and while he was eligible that summer, Portland promptly handed its point guard a five-year, $120 million maximum rookie extension.

Sound familiar?

New contract in hand, Lillard lit the league on fire next season. He averaged 25.1 points and saw his 3-point percentage increase from 34.3% the year before to 37.5%.

A similar leap could be coming from Murray, who over his three-season run in Denver has mimicked many aspects of Lillard’s game.

Lillard and Murray are both dynamic lead ball handlers who have always been natural, high-volume scorers. They’re two above average but not elite Russell Westbrook-type athletes and have crafted their games carefully around physical abilities. Both Lillard and Murray’s arsenals contain deadly step-back jumpers and they’re also two of the best tough-shotmakers in the league. BSN Denver documented throughout the Nuggets’ first-round series against the Spurs and conference semifinals matchup against Lillard’s Trail Blazers how Murray shot the ball better when he was closely guarded as opposed to wide open and the final counting stats from Murray’s first playoff run showed that his tough shot-making ability wasn’t a farce.

It’s also striking how similar the two’s dispositions are on the court. Lillard and Murray both carry a calm but intense demeanor with them in between the lines. Lillard is unequivocally recognized as Portland’s leader and Murray still has a ways to go in that department. But Murray is also seven years younger than Lillard and has a few years to grow into that role.

When the clock winds down and the game is on the line, both Murray and Lillard want the ball too. Neither is afraid to take a game-deciding shot and the two-point guards are more than willing to shoulder the blame in a loss.

Murray’s willingness to accept the responsibilities that come with being a franchise cornerstone is a vital quality for any organizational building block to have, especially one that you just committed $170 million to.

With the extension, Denver believes many more high-pressure makes are coming from Murray in the regular season and more importantly in the playoffs where he averaged 21.3 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game last season, becoming the first player since Lillard in 2013-14 to post those numbers in the postseason in one of his first three years in the league.

The biggest difference between the potential jump that Murray could take next year and the one Lillard made between his third and fourth seasons is age. Lillard was 25 when he made his leap. Murray will only turn 23 in February.

“I’m just so thankful for our ownership to understand the importance of locking a guy like Jamal up,” Michael Malone told BSN Denver. “Tim Connelly drafts really well and then we keep our guys. I think that’s got to be the key to us becoming the team that we want to be. And Jamal has earned it. I look at what he did in the playoffs this year. For a 22-year-old making his playoff debut, some of the moments that he had. He’s going to be our starting point guard for many years.”

The most significant stretch of high-leverage shots that Murray converted last year came with the Nuggets’ season on life support. Down by seven points to open the fourth quarter in Game 2 against the Spurs and facing a potential 2-0 series hole heading back to San Antonio, Murray put on one of the most impressive performances of his career.

Murray scored 13 of the Nuggets’ first 29 points to begin the fourth quarter as Denver roared back to take a three-point lead with under three minutes remaining in regulation. Then, as the shot clock wound down on the game’s next possession, Murray found himself at the top of the three-point arc against Derrick White who had frustrated Denver’s point guard for much of the last seven quarters. With White draped all over him, Murray went to his bread and butter: a step-back jumper that he launched just over White’s outstretched hands. The shot clock expired while the ball was in mid-flight and eventually, Murray’s high-arching moonball dropped cleanly through the net.

Murray walked to half-court, turned towards a raucous Pepsi Center crowd, and fired his most important blue arrow of the season.

For the Nuggets, more arrows fired from Murray means more wins. And if Murray can make a Lillard-like leap next season, which would mean becoming a more consistent offensive player, and also improving his handle, decision-making and defense, something that isn’t Lillard’s strong-suit but still an area of his game where Murray must improve beginning this fall, more victories will follow.

It’s Denver’s coaching staff and front office’s job to continue to push Murray and they will. Connelly often remarks that he’s exceptionally hard on Murray and holds him to an incredibly high standard because he knows just how good the Kitchener, Ontario product can be. But it’s also on Murray to continue to improve, come back this fall as a better player, and live up to the expectations that the Nuggets placed on him when they handed him the lucrative extension.

“I love coaching him. I love our relationship,” Malone told BSN Denver. “It’s my job to continue to push him and hold him accountable so he can become the best player that he can be.”