Buy or Sell: Colorado's pending free agents future fit with the Avalanche

Normally, this is the kind of piece I would write a couple of weeks after Colorado’s season ended, whenever that may be. Because the Avs dared to win the Stanley Cup, however, I have to get to it a touch earlier than usual.

You might have heard the Avalanche have a lot of pending free agents, opening the door for a lot of roster turnover. Sitting around $25M in salary cap space (depending on newly-acquired Alexandar Georgiev’s expected contract signing), it isn’t quite the dire situation some have made it out to be but it absolutely is true the Avalanche are going to have to make difficult decisions in the next two weeks.

With all of that in mind, I wanted to go through Colorado’s free agents and play a little BUY/SELL with them fitting in with the Avs moving forward. It’s a big list, so let’s work from the back of the ice forward.

DEFENSE

Ryan Murray

He didn’t play in the postseason and the oft-injured defender was once again an injury liability this season. He played 37 games and registered just four assists. He’s still just 28 and it would be hard to believe the year he had has him in line to repeat the $2M salary he just made last year, but the reality here is that even if you liked what he brought to the ice, and he had his moments, you just can’t rely on him to get through a season.

 It wouldn’t be a bad thing to see him come back for around a million dollars, but he can probably get a better offer elsewhere so I’m going with SELL.

Jack Johnson

He was set to retire last summer before the Avs tossed a PTO his way to see if he could get
through training camp healthy enough to go. He did, got a minimum contract, and won a Stanley Cup. Pretty cool little piece of business for him. Johnson also scored one of the season’s most memorable goals when he scored the first one, a sweet move to his backhand to beat Marc-Andre Fleury on a breakaway. That was fun.

He was the 6th D after Sam Girard’s injury in the postseason. His isolated numbers aren’t that bad, especially given his role, but his impact on teammates was absolutely brutal. He made every pairing he was on significantly worse. He’s a fun story, but the Avs can probably replicate this success elsewhere, so I’m going with SELL.

Josh Manson

Manson was one of the deadline acquisitions and given his success in Colorado, he’s going to be held up as a shining example of what happens when they go really well. Manson shored up an area of need for the Avs with his physicality but his personality also fit perfectly in Colorado, something that can’t be overlooked when talking about a guy trying to find a role in a short period of time.

Manson and Girard were great together and Manson excelled when his partner got hurt in the St. Louis series. His offensive production was a big surprise, but it was more the way it happened.

Manson didn’t feast on cheap points but rather was a driving force for the points he did score. He showed more offensive acumen in two months in Colorado than at basically any point in his career.

With Conor Timmins, Justin Barron, and Drew Helleson all cleared from the organization in the last calendar year, the Avs have the opening on the blueline on the right side. Erik Johnson has just one year remaining on his deal and is nearing the end of his career either way. Manson was a great fit and is still just 30. I’m iffy on the price tag, but in theory, I’m a BUY on this one.

FORWARD

Darren Helm/Nico Sturm

With Andrew Cogliano re-signing already, Colorado might have made its priority call on the fourth line already despite both Helm and Sturm having big-time moments in the Cup run. Helm, especially, really stepped up his game in the playoffs as his physicality was undeniable and he successfully moonlighted as a center when needed.

Sturm never really quite seemed to find his footing in Colorado but his skillset did show up on a couple of occasions. When engaged in the game, Sturm was a physical presence who made smart, economical decisions with the puck and kept things simple. He suffered an arm injury early on in Round 1 that remained problematic throughout the run, sapping some of his value in the faceoff circle along the way.

Sturm is just 26, however, so there could be a bigger conversation for the Avs to have if they really liked what they saw. I’m iffy on how anyone could have loved Sturm’s time in Denver, but he has enough track record to justify a deal. He reportedly turned down a multi-year offer from Minnesota, however, so his eyes might be bigger than Colorado’s stomach can handle this summer.

Ultimately, I think Helm is a BUY and Sturm is a SELL, but if the opposite happens, it’s pretty much the same.

Nicolas Aube-Kubel (RFA)

I’m including the RFAs here because I think both are interesting but starting with NAK. He was the only forward not to score for the Avs during their Stanley Cup run, going scoreless in 14 games after he set a career-high with 22 points (11g, 11a) in the regular season. NAK brought energy and a tryhard attitude, and his qualifying offer is barely over a million dollars.

Because of the price tag, I’m looking at NAK to help replace one of the guys above. He just turned 26, too, so he’s already into what should be his athletic prime. There are limitations as he’s strictly a 5v5 player, but he’s cheap and young and that’s the golden ticket sometimes so I’m going with BUY.

Artturi Lehkonen (RFA)

The other RFA here, Lehkonen, was a revelation after being acquired by Colorado. The NHL
was ablaze trying to find their own version of Blake Coleman after Tampa Bay got him a few
years ago (just beating out Colorado, rumors had it) and by golly, the Avalanche did it with
Lehkonen. The real trick, however, will be keeping Lehkonen instead of watching him depart, a la Coleman heading to the Calgary Flames last summer. The RFA status all but ensures he plays at least one full season in Denver.

Lehkonen was a picture-perfect fit in Colorado and while he wasn’t a dominant shift-by-shift player like some of the guys lower on this list, he was huge for the Avs in the postseason. He had9 points in 16 games in the regular season and then followed it up with 14 points in 20 playoff games, including eight goals, four of which were game-winning goals.

His speed and tenacity all popped next to Colorado’s skill guys. He just turned 27 today. Not only is this a BUY, but buy big.

Andre Burakovsky

This one is a tough call for me. Burakovsky produced a career-high in goals, assists, and points and all three of his Avalanche seasons have been the most productive of his career. He’s proven himself a legitimate top-six forward and he possesses the single most important skill in all of hockey: he’s got a great shot that can beat a goaltender at any time.

Burakovsky is your classic streaky player who goes through extended lulls where his production is lacking and then seemingly out of nowhere, he blows up for five points in two games.

When he’s at his best, his team usually wins. Burakovsky’s skating, speed, and overall skill level fit perfectly in Colorado, but he’s looking at a contract in the neighborhood of $6M and that might be too rich for Colorado’s blood. Can they pay that kind of price for a guy who might be their fifth or sixth-best forward who is the least reliable and the worst defensively among those in the conversation?

He has 29 points in 37 playoff games for the Avs and we saw the best and worst he has to offer in the Cup run this year. He was demoted to the third line, didn’t do very much, then opens the Stanley Cup Final with three points in the first two games despite playing on a broken ankle.

The Burakovsky Experience is a fun one, but ultimately I think is a luxury for the Avalanche so this is a somber SELL.

Valeri Nichushkin

What a story, eh? Once the Nichushkin train got rolling, it simply hasn’t stopped.
Somehow, Nichushkin’s first two years in Colorado, which we were all thrilled about as an
example of a reclamation project working out, pale in comparison to the year he just had. There’s always a little fear of a guy having a career year in his walk year, as we saw with like half the guys on this list (Burakovsky, Nichushkin, Kadri, Lehkonen, sort of Kuemper), but Nichushkin’s play in the postseason really put this conversation to bed.

You might have been able to hold the line and temper contract talks after his 52-point regular season driven by a career-high in goal scoring (which, big shock, was accompanied by a career-high shooting percentage!) because those are all classic landmine red flags for pending UFAs. But I’m sorry, after the 15-point postseason (in just 20 games) he posted, there’s no question for me. Nichushkin is not only a BUY, but must-buy-at-all-costs.

He elevated every line he played on and was a statistically dominant possession player. His size, speed, and emerging finishing ability all should make him priority number one for the
Avalanche. Keep him and let him continue to develop into their own version of Mark Stone,
which is the kind of company he’s starting to creep up on with his two-way excellence.

Nazem Kadri

Best for last, right?

Kadri had the mother of all walk years. If you’re reading this, you probably already know the numbers are silly, but they’re always fun to look at again. Between the regular season and playoffs, Kadri played 87 games and scored 102 points. For comparison, Nathan MacKinnon played 85 games and scored 112 points, so they’re in the same neighborhood there.

Kadri’s previous high was 61 points in the regular season! What we saw this year from Kadri was what Brian Burke was hoping he would get every year in Toronto when he drafted Kadri 7th overall. It was the perfect combination of Kadri’s skill, physicality, penalty-drawing acumen, and overall annoyance to opposing teams. He walked the line beautifully, especially in the postseason when teams were trying to goad him into silliness.