In college basketball, the margin of error for non-Blue Blood programs is paper-thin. Missed opportunities on the court, in recruiting, or outside of the sport altogether, can irreparably alter the fortunes of a once promising rise to national relevance.

For Colorado men’s basketball head coach Tad Boyle, the going has certainly become more arduous since his first three seasons and recruiting classes, finishing with a losing record two seasons ago before bouncing back last year, yet giving up what should have been a safe lead to UConn in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Now in his seventh season, Boyle tabbed this campaign as his most important yet with the Buffaloes, the one where his program seemed primed to take, in his words, the next step.

Thanks to three straight recruiting classes yielding just two impact players, his team is 10-4 and heading the wrong direction.

To understand why his program is here, coming off of a blowout loss to Utah and just one month removed from an embarrassing home loss to Colorado State, we have to look back.

Colorado’s 2012 recruiting class announced Boyle’s program as an impending national contender, thanks to the signing of two four-star prospects in Josh Scott and Xavier Johnson. Accompanying them were two under-the-radar prospects in Chris Jenkins and Xavier Talton, neither of whom held competitive offers from high-profile programs outside of CU. In Jenkins, the Buffs’ staff expected shooting, toughness, and versatility at the small forward spot. Jenkins transferred out of the program after his redshirt year. Talton was billed as an athletic point guard whose upside rivaled anyone in the class. In the end, Talton was a valuable role player on several tournament teams, but was never an upper-level Pac-12 guard. Eli Stalzer was signed late in the cycle, after reported concerns stemming from Talton’s underwhelming senior high school campaign, but was more dedicated to his musical studies than his role as a member of the basketball program. Finally, there is Wesley Gordon, who often starred in his role next to Scott. Now on his own, in Boyle’s own words, it’s too late to try and change Wes.

From there, Boyle set out to recruit the kind of versatile athlete he covets so much in the following class. On paper, he appeared to do just that in 2013, with the quartet of Tre’Shaun Fletcher, Jaron Hopkins, Dustin Thomas, and George King. All could run, jump, dribble, pass, and (on paper) shoot. Some could do certain skills more than others. All three signees other than King, who was a late signing that Boyle was alerted to at a last minute tournament in Denver, were ranked among the nation’s top 150 prospects by at least one service, with Fletcher being the most highly regarded by Scout. As it stands now, only King remains in the program.

The 2014 recruiting cycle looked promising from the get-go, with in-state prospects like Dom Collier, Josh Perkins, and Ronnie Harrell all potential targets for Boyle and all ranked in the top 100 by at least one service. In what was the most prolonged drama of Boyle’s tenure, the Buffs landed Collier and added Tory Miller, a Rivals 150 big man from Kansas City with whom Collier had been AAU teammates. While Collier has been a mainstay in the starting line-up for much of his career, injuries and inconsistencies have riddled his legacy. Miller remains a functional rotation player, but rarely shows glimpses of further promise.

For more than a year before signing day, industry insiders couldn’t stop talking about the depth of the 2015 class on the west coast. In fact, this writer himself tweeted out that any Pac-12 staff who couldn’t land themselves a top 150 prospect from out west, “wasn’t doing their job.” Colorado’s 2015 class finished with two members, Kenan Guzonjic and Thomas Akyazili. Guzonjic, a junior college prospect with perpetual injury concern, couldn’t get on the floor for meaningful minutes during his one season in Boulder. Akyazili has cemented himself as the current backup point guard, though it’s difficult to tell what he can do this season that he couldn’t one year ago. Josh Fortune, who transferred from Providence and became eligible for this class, has been a model of inconsistency in every way imaginable and it’s tough to gauge exactly what role he plays as a senior.

And thus, here we are.

That is three classes in a row, from 2013-2015, with no All-Conference nominations or NBA Draft picks. Yes, George King won Pac-12 Most Improved Player last year, but has struggled to regain a form that even resembles what he did to deserve such honors. Among those three classes, the two players that have contributed the most in their time are King and Collier, who while solid in their roles, cannot carry a team. This year, as Boyle stares down the possibility of missing his second NCAA Tournament in three years, it’s clear that his best player is Derrick White, a transfer from D-II UCCS and whose eligibility expires this April.

When dealing with a margin error as thin as the one at Colorado, Boyle’s three-class cold streak has the program on uncertain ground moving forward, particularly at guard and on the post.

Who is the guard of the future in Boulder? Any final verdict on freshmen Bryce Peters and Deleon Brown is premature, but it’s reasonable to suggest that neither has given extensive reason to believe that it is them. Who is the next big man that the staff will feel comfortable isolating on the block or running their offense through? It certainly isn’t Lucas Siewart, if his early struggles with the ball are any indication. Thus far, Colorado’s lot of rookies look like capable pieces on a team supported by a star, a star that isn’t currently in the program. Key word being, yet.

The Buffs have the No. 25 ranked recruiting class in the nation according to Scout, with three four-star prospects coming in, including D’shawn Schwartz from Colorado Springs. Could he be the missing piece, the guard who changes everything on Colorado’s perimeter? It’s certainly possible. What about Tyler Bey or Evan Battey, his classmates? Again, it’s certainly possible that they break out as Pac-12 stars.

Missing as often as Colorado has since the 2011 class that brought to town Spencer Dinwiddie and Askia Booker has put the Buffs in a precarious position, as conference foes continue to stock talent and sleeping giants like USC, UCLA, and Oregon look like they may be gaining their footing alongside Arizona atop the conference. Another cycle without All-Conference, NBA type of talent could do more than just slow down Colorado’s hopes of becoming a consistent, nationally relevant program.

It could kill them completely.