Bud Black owes me a beer to discuss a stat that could drive Rockies success in second half

What will be the single most important statistic for the Colorado Rockies in the second half of 2017? Starting pitcher earned run average? The offense and weighted runs created (wRC)? Yeah, one of those two could be it.

But how about the art of making out(s) better? No, this is not a Marie Claire story misplaced. It’s still about baseball here.

Like a nice watch, success in baseball requires a thousand intricate parts all moving correctly. One player, one stat equals team success? Not in baseball. But as we learn more about this iteration of the Rockies and how their identity differs dramatically from those of the past, it’s becoming clearer what they must do to get where they want to go.

Get. Productive. Outs.

It isn’t flashy. It isn’t especially intuitive. Making an out is bad, right? Why not just try to avoid the whole “out” thing altogether? Because that’s impossible, of course. With so much fancy math in the game (which ultimately makes it much better, for nerds like me) there is still some pretty basic arithmetic that can hold just as much wisdom:

The vast majority of Major League at-bats end in outs. Failure is inevitable. But the beauty of baseball lies in the fundamental truth that has been woven so deeply into the fabric of our culture: inside each failure, there is an opportunity.

Not all outs are equal.

A groundball to the right side or a fly ball deep enough to the outfield, at just the right time, can be the swing play of the game. Arguably the most famous moment in Colorado Rockies history? A sacrifice fly off the bat of Jamey Carroll.

On the other side of that 2007 play, then-San Diego Padres manager and current Rockies skipper, Bud Black, certainly knows the value of plays that often are only recorded in the box score as outs made the “right” way.

“That’s what you want. That’s a team-offensive approach,” Black said.

To elaborate further: These days, taking an approach at the plate that decreases the chance of a hit but increases the chances of moving a runner over, really, is a “sacrifice.” Not just in the traditional sense. These kinds of players may make a little less in their paychecks, as an out is still an out. But these kinds of players also tend to be employed a long time. Managers such as Black know what they’re worth.

Two Rockies who have excelled in this area recently for needed headed into the All-Star break are Gerardo Parra and Pat Valaika. Parra, in particular, has been fantastic all season at driving in runs still (33, sixth on the team), despite having missed significant time to injury. He sits just two RBI behind Trevor Story,  who has played in 23 more games. He has 11 more RBI than Carlos Gonzalez, who has played in 22 more.

While RBI may not be the best stat in the world to stat nerds anymore, it still tells us something. When Parra missed a long road trip recently with the injury, Colorado went on a 1-8 road and the productive outs nearly disappeared.

I mentioned this to Bud Black.

“Yes. I agree. I don’t know how you value it but moving up a base, just the possibilities of putting a ball in play are, for me, important. We struck out too much on this last trip,” Black said. “We struck out too much. So, that’s something we talk about as a group, especially at certain times, putting the ball in play. I’m right with you. I’m right with you on the productive out. So keep spreading that out there, alright?”

“I’ll do my best,” I replied.

“We’ll share a beer on that one and we’ll be on the same page,” he replied back.

Life goals are good to have.

The next time we spoke was after that evening’s game, in which the Rockies ended up on the wrong side of the productive-out spectrum once again; A tough loss to the White Sox that might easily have been a win, had a few strikeouts been replaced with groundballs to second.

“We have some guys that are prone to the strikeout,” Black said. “That has to improve in their game. To your point, you said it this afternoon, I agree with you. As we move forward, and it doesn’t happen overnight, but we have to make sure that in those situations we capitalize on those opportunities to make productive outs.”

These aren’t the Blake Street Bombers. These Rockies don’t win on massive offensive output while hoping and praying that they get just enough out of their pitching and defense. This version of the Rockies is something else entirely, sporting a starting staff filled with rookies who are oozing talent. Yes, they win when they pitch. They win when they play good defense. No baseball team can be great without some timely hitting.

But like the Kansas City Royals in 2015, or the San Francisco Giants of nearly every other odd year this past decade, the Rockies will need to take make the absolute most of every little opportunity, even if it ends in failure.

If they do that, they can really make out well.