BSN Nuggets Weekend Mailbag: Fourth-quarter lineups with Nurkic and Jokic, Gary Harris's impending impact, and more

 

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This weekend’s mailbag hits on a number of subjects including the Denver’s fourth-quarter struggles and lineup choices, Gary Harris‘s impact once he returns to the lineup, if playing so many close games this early in the season helps with the Nuggets development and more. As always, submit your questions to me during the week @NBAWind or @BSNNuggets.

Why do Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic tend to be on the bench come crunch time and why does Denver abandon playing inside out? – @KidDangerousLA

The Nuggets first two games of the season, at New Orleans and the home opener against Portland, where Kenneth Faried closed most the game at the small ball five, was odd. That lineup was able to surprisingly hold their own defensively but could not score to save their lives as the pace fo the game slowed into a halfcourt slugfest in the final few of minutes. At this point, there shouldn’t be many times throughout the game where on of Nurkic and Jokic is not on the floor.

To your point, Nurkic has been such a dominant interior scorer in the early going this season it would make sense to feed him more late in the fourth since he’s averaging 16.5 points per game this season but just two points in the fourth. The Nuggets have had issues scoring the fourth all year. They’re shooting a league-worst 29.4 percent from the field in the final period through four games, so whether that’s getting Nurkic the ball more, or playing through Danilo Gallinari, their best go-to scorer, something has to change.

At this point, there shouldn’t be too many times throughout the game where both Nurkic and Jokic are not on the floor. To your point, Nurkic has been such a dominant interior scorer in the early going this season it would make sense to feed him more late in the fourth since he’s averaging 16.5 points per game this season but just two points in fourth quarters.

The Nuggets have had issues scoring the fourth all year and they’re shooting a league-worst 29.4 percent from the field in the final period through four games. Whether getting Nurkic the ball more or playing through Danilo Gallinari, their best go-to scorer, something has to change in order for Denver to close out games more effectively moving forward. In my opinion, when healthy, Denver should close with Mudiay, Harris, Gallinari, Chandler and either Jokic or Nurkic.

Has your overall opinion on the Nuggets this season changed after four games? – Zach Wickler, Indianapolis Indiana

Have I backed off or upped my win total from 39? No. I’m sticking to 39 wins for now, but do think Denver could easily exceed that total if a few things go their way.

If Michael Malone can figure out his rotations and ultimately staggers Jokic and Nurkic to the point that Jokic is playing mostly with the starters and Nurkic with the bench unit, I think that adds a few more wins to Denver’s total. Jokic’s skill-set fits better with more ball-dominant players like Danilo Gallinari and Emmanuel Mudiay while Nurkic fits seamlessly as the No. 1 option on the second unit beating up opposing backup bigs. Both could play a similar amount of minutes in this scenario while Malone can opt to roll with whoever is having a more impactful game or make a choice depending on if the Nuggets are leading or trailing late in games.

Secondly, the injuries. Harris has already missed four games, Darrell Arthur three, and Barton one, so not exactly a great start for the Nuggets on that front. If they can stay relatively healthy from here on out they should be contending for the eighth seed but as of now history suggests otherwise. Malone needs to get Gallinari’s minutes down as well to prevent losing their most important player going forward and the guy whose play could decide if Denver grabs the eighth seed or not.

Does playing close games to start the season benefit the Nuggets later this year? – @stephenakanut

Yes, it would be hard for the experience they’ve gained playing in close games not to help the young Nuggets, I just wish that group experiencing these fourth-quarter collapses could have included Gary Harris. If anything these close games should help Malone determine what works and what doesn’t work late in the fourth quarter.

So far, it’s pretty clear that playing Faried at the five to close out games doesn’t work. That group clearly can’t score in the halfcourt. Playing Nurkic surrounded by four perimeter players has shown some signs of being a “Death Lineup” – lite
of sorts, or plug in Jokic for Nurkic and you’re probably getting a similar result.

What’s kind of impact will Gary Harris have when he returns?  – @EricYChang

Malone has been pretty adamant throughout the preseason, and so far during the regular season that when Harris returns he’s Denver’s starting two-guard, and rightfully so. Harris had a breakout year during his sophomore campaign and is poised to take another step this year alongside a more mature and complete Nuggets rotation.

However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harris come off the bench for a game or two before he starts again, especially if he’s under a minutes restriction combined with how good Will Barton has meshed with the starters. Harris will give Denver a defensive upgrade next to Mudiay once he returns to the starting five and his shooting and playmaking should help Denver out in the fourth quarter where he could team with a combination of Mudiay, Barton Gallinari, Wilson Chandler and either Jokic or Nurkic to form a deadly closing lineup. It will likely take a couple weeks once Harris gets back in the lineup to get him playing at the level he was last year but his return, which should come within Denver’s next couple of games will help the Nuggets.

Does Danilo Gallinari averaging a league-leading 38.8 minutes per game this early in the season concern you? – Travis Trott, Detroit, Michigan

Yes, it does, and even though I haven’t had the chance to ask him with the Nuggets on a five-game road trip, I can assure you it concerns Malone as well. Here’s what Malone said when I asked him if he was concerned about Gallinari’s minutes early on last year:

“Right now we have limited bodies, is it ideal playing him that heavy of minutes? Obviously not. Good thing is this week we don’t play again until Friday. We sat him out of practice yesterday to give him rest. [With] so many bodies banged up, [it] forced [us] to play him more minutes than I’d like. So yes, there is a concern, but right now we have limited bodies and we’re probably playing him a little bit too much. But that’s what I feel I have to do right now.”

That was last year when the Nuggets were ravaged by injuries, especially on the wing. This season, injuries have hit them in the backcourt, likely contributing a but to Gallinari’s increased minutes but him already playing a career-high in minutes this early in the season, considering he hasn’t played more than 60 games the past two season is a concern.

As a coach, your job is to win games.You’re ultimately judged on your record when it’s all said and done and every game counts. You can’t fault Malone that much for playing Gallinari as much as he has, especially with his career win/loss record, but it’s hard to see Gallinari’s year ending well if he keeps playing these minutes.