BSN Nuggets Roundtable: Early rookie impressions and predicting Denver's moves at the trade deadline

 

[Elite_video_player id=”37″]

Now that the regular season is ramping up the staff at BSN Nuggets will be publishing a weekly roundtable to collect the thoughts of our contributors on different storylines throughout the week.

This week, An Nguyen (@The_NGUYENNER), Dan Fatigato (DNF_on_NBA), Luke Binder (@303luke) and T.J. McBride (@BSN_McBride) came together to hopefully shed some light on some of the bigger questions surrounding the Nuggets.

With the plethora of injuries that the Nuggets have faced it has been an opportune time to observe the play of Jamal Murray in extended minutes. What have you thought of his game so far?

An: My friends here in Dallas are absolutely sick from hearing about him from me. I’ve liked him for a while now so it brings me nothing but joy to see Murray succeed. He excels at the one trait Denver needs the most: A knack for getting buckets. I love Gallinari, but him driving into the paint looking for the foul everytime is not a good enough “bail-out” option if the end goal is a championship. Murray has already shown that he can score at an NBA-level, but my favorite part about him is that he plays hard and makes the right basketball play, never forcing shots (even when he started 0-17). I also love his background as his father put aside years of his life solely to train Jamal into becoming a basketball player. This is the stuff of Hollywood.

Dan: When I look at rookies, I want to see them excel or at least show flashes with their signature skill at the NBA level. Anything else is just gravy unless you’re talking about a superhuman like Karl-Anthony Towns. Murray’s elite skill coming out of college was bucket-getting. He poured in 20 points per game as a freshman and I’ve been eager to see if that will translate to the NBA. His efficiency numbers are hurt by his horrendous 0-17 start but with three 20-point games already, he’s proven he can fill it up in the League. Denver needs his point production off the bench, so I expect him to get every opportunity to do his thing even as he struggles defensively. Early returns are better than expected overall.

Luke: Despite the tough start, Murray has exceeded my expectations. He shows flashes of greatness and it translates into optimism for this team and franchise. Against the Bulls last Tuesday night, the rookie showed that he can be a sparkplug off the bench which ignites this team during his “are you kidding me” stretch of shooting in the second quarter. I’m excited to keep watching him grow and develop – the sky’s the limit for him and I believe he can develop into one of the primer guards in the Association.

T.J.: Jamal Murray’s scoring was to be expected, even after starting 0-17 from the field, but what has stood out to me is his playmaking ability with the ball in his hands, his feel for the game, and the fact that his basketball IQ is significantly better than advertised out of Kentucky. He is showing a skill-set of a lead guard, whether that is at the point or shooting guard position, and that he can be an additional playmaker on the floor while still adding in his elite shooting ability. He has been nothing short of fantastic to begin the season.

The Nuggets’ next 11 games, including a six-game road-trip are mostly winnable but crucial games if the Nuggets are to make the playoffs this season. What record do the Nuggets need to have if they are to stay in the playoff chase and what needs to happen for Denver to reach that goal?

An: I believe the Nuggets are playing better than the 7-10 record they currently have. Considering the games where they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and the fact that Malone is currently tinkering with lineups, the record is not bad. Growing pains are a part of young teams, and the positive signs are encouraging. I optimistically see the Nuggets going 9-2 in this stretch. Gary Harris needs to get healthy as Denver desperately needs his perimeter defense, particularly against the Rockets on December 2 as James Harden is playing at not only an MVP level but a historic one. The Nuggets also need to have more ball movement in crunch time, as they stop executing and start taking turns playing hero ball. That plan works only if you have a bucket-getter, not a team that is built deep like Denver. However, it’s something they could explore down the road… (see question 1).

Dan: At 7-10, the Nuggets are worse than I anticipated through 16 games. Even with a brutal first 10 games, I expected a near .500 record at this point. That means they’ll need to rattle off wins in bunches to get back in the race. Their upcoming Sixers-Nets-Wizards Atlantic Seaboard tour looks like a great place to notch their first three-game winning streak. Then they get Orlando and Dallas. Could they win five straight on the road? Seems unlikely, but those teams are all putrid. The West appears to be back, with strong early performances by Houston and Memphis, so a season-defining run of wins may be essential. It’s still early, but the Nuggets can’t be 10-17 after these next 11 games. I think they need to go 7-4 or better in this stretch.

Luke: I did not foresee the Nuggets struggling out of the gate like they have. Closing games is still a work in progress and will be until proven otherwise by this bunch. Winning seven of eleven puts the Nuggets at .500 and I don’t think that’s enough to catapult them into contention. Even though it sounds unrealistic, I see this team needing to win 8, maybe even 9 games in this stretch. The opportunities will present themselves and Denver must seize them.

T.J.: The Nuggets have had their sights on the playoffs and have made that known since Media Day. Being 7-10 through 17 games was about what I expected due to the brutal schedule to start the year. Within the next 11 games, the Nuggets need to win seven or eight games to firmly keep their name in the playoffs conversation. The Nuggets are close to turning a corner and the experimentation phase is starting to end so the excuses will have to start diminishing while wins hopefully start to accumulate over the next 11 games.

[Elite_video_player id=”33″]

Now that we have had ample time to watch this season’s rookies, rank the three of them in terms of potential within the next 4 years and add a few thoughts on why you chose to rank each.

An: Murray, Juancho Hernangomez, Malik Beasley. Murray has already shown elite scoring ability and quick adjustments to the NBA at just age 19. Enough said. The only rookie playing better is Joel Embiid who had two years in the NBA to train in the Hyperbolic Time Chamber before being unleashed. Hernangomez has shown a silky smooth shot, great hustle (the man is an energizer bunny) and a good sense of cutting off-ball with the ability to either score or make the right play. He’s kind of like the big man version of Harris. Beasley is a prospect that I love despite ranking him last, a testament to General Manager Tim Connelly and the front office’s drafting prowess. He’s a tremendous athlete, has a shot that looks like a machine, and great character. He has value even on the bench, always busting out a crazy dance when his teammates make a good play. I haven’t seen the bench this lively in a long while.

Dan: 1. Murray – His 23 points in 21 minutes in the win over the Bulls was telling. It looked like a future All-Star blossoming in front of our eyes. His free throw rate is abysmal, but his 8-10 night from the stripe against OKC was a nice step in the right direction. With his varied arsenal, he should live on the line in the years to come.  

2. Hernangomez – He’s shooting nearly half his shots from 3-point range, which makes sense considering he’s shooting a blistering 47 percent on triples. He’s finding his spots offensively, in the limited minutes he’s played and not forcing anything. The evolution of his defense will be key to his potential.  

3. Beasley – He’s only played in eight games and just 49 minutes total, so it’s a bit hard to get a read on him. It’s hard to find a rhythm playing under ten minutes a game. I’m still a Beasley believer, but he’s been the least impressive rookie at this point.

Luke: Murray is the most talented player on this roster, it’s only a matter of time before this becomes his team and that could transform this franchise. He is just a special player – the way he competes night in and night out show that Murray is able to influence the game in ways not recorded by a stat sheet. Hernangomez has a very smooth and polished game for an international player of his age. I think he is a rich man’s version of Linas Kleiza (remember him?) and could become one of the premier outside shooters in the league. If he can figure out how to use his size and athleticism on the block, look out. And finally, Beasley. He flashed loads of potential at Florida State but I haven’t seen enough of him to give a fair or accurate take. Long term, I think Beasley could develop into a key bench player that can give the Nuggets valuable outside shooting and energy.

T.J.: For anyone who has watched the Nuggets this season it is apparent that Murray the most impactful rookie so far and possesses the most star-potential of any player on the Nuggets. His ability to score from anywhere within half-court paired with his high-level basketball IQ and endless motor makes him the Nuggets best chance of developing a star.

Hernangomez, while not the star that Murray could be, looks to be very promising. His ability to hit threes while rebounding with tenacity is highly valued in the NBA today from the forward position. The fact that he moves very well defensively, on the perimeter or down low, and has shown better vision than advertised when he was playing in Spain puts him above Beasley when speaking on long-term potential.

Beasley is the unknown in this conversation. Before his stress fracture in college Beasley was scoring at a historically efficient rate. The Nuggets even had him pinned as a lottery pick prior to the injury. Beasley comes in last on this list simply because we have not had quite enough time to thoroughly watch him play at the NBA level.

As we approach trade season and with the overflow of players deserving of minutes on the Nuggets, which player(s) should Denver think about parting ways with?

An: I’ve always maintained that the Nuggets should focus on a trade involving Kenneth Faried and Will Barton. Throw in Jameer Nelson, who has shown the league he can still play coming off back-to-back 21-point games, one of which he added 13 assists too. Trading Faried hurts because he has shown great improvements defensively, leading to career-highs in steals, blocks, and charges drawn (of which he’s currently 4th in the NBA). Barton hurts too but with the emergence of Murray and Beasley waiting in the shadows, it’s palatable. He’s on one of the best contracts in the NBA and could provide a scoring punch to any team needing a boost.

Dan: I’m tempted to predict a blockbuster trade that involves Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari, and next year’s Memphis pick, but I’ve been burned too many times. I think the most likely guy to be moved is Barton, given his attractiveness on the market. He will make around $7M through 2017-18, which is analogous to the loose change stuck in the vacuum cleaner in modern NBA terms. Denver may be able to turn him into a pick if another team sees Barton’s unique talents as the missing piece in a playoff run. It would ease the Nugget’s backcourt logjam some as well (assuming Gary Harris comes back at full strength).

Luke: Smart money would be on Barton. I think if Faried or Gallinari were going to be traded it would have happened by now, so I think both of them are staying put in the Mile High City. Barton has stated over and over again that he wants to be a starter in this league, which I believe he should be, but that opportunity is not going to present itself in Denver. He also has a very tradable contract. Chandler and Nelson have both proved themselves to be much too valuable for this team to part with. If someone is going to go, Barton appears to be the odd man out.

T.J.: I have been an advocate of moving Gallinari for a while now. While moving Faried would also be a good move the market is not great at the moment and his value does not seem very high. Gallinari is in a contract year being that he can opt out of his deal at the conclusion of the season. It is never good to loose assets and get nothing in return so unless the Nuggets have a verbal agreement that Gallinari is undoubtedly staying in Denver you almost have to trade him. His value is as high as it has been and it would go a long way in letting the Nuggets young nucleus develop while allowing the Nuggets to get a solid haul in return.