BSN Nuggets roundtable: A new season is upon us

 

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After suffering through eight preseason games a new Denver Nuggets season has finally arrived. The Nuggets are entering what may be a defining season for the franchise with the enormity of the pressure falling onto players who are mostly under the age of 25 years young. Denver is poised to potentially break back into the playoffs on the backs of their younger players development and better health.

With that being said a few of the Nuggets writers for BSN Denver got together and gave their insight on the upcoming season.

Which player do you see as the most important to the Nuggets success this season as a whole?

An Nguyen: I think the player that holds the key for us becoming a great team, as opposed to a very good one, is the development of Jusuf Nurkic. He single-handedly holds the potential for Denver to be a good defensive team, one with a mountain of a man in the middle who can both defend the rim and finish in the low post.

Jokic gives us something unique, but Nurkic could provide us with the tried and true defensive center that is vital to winning championships.

Dan Fatigato: Nikola Jokic. Much will hinge on whether the Joker’s game remains efficient and dynamic with increased playing time. I see Emmanuel Mudiay having more growing pains offensively and Jokic’s facilitation out of the post will be crucial. In addition to his sweet dishes, Jokic will need to space the floor with his shot consistently and do more work on the offensive glass.

How will increased minutes and responsibility weigh on him? Has the gym work in the offseason prepped him for such a key role? He was a pleasant surprise and a PER monster last season, but now teams will be game-planning for him. Defensively, the twin tower lineup will hinge on Jokic’s ability to guard fours.

We need Big Honey to take another step, building off his rookie campaign and Olympic exploits.

Luke Binder: Danilo Gallinari. I expect big things out of Gallo this season. If he can stay healthy, I think the Nuggets make the playoffs. This team needs him to be the solid, dependable scorer that he is fully capable of becoming, even this late in his career.

Joel Rush: Emmanuel Mudiay. So much of the Nuggets’ offense showing meaningful improvement this season starts with Mudiay, who as Denver’s floor general really needs to make the same kind of leap as Gary Harris did last year.

While Mudiay certainly wasn’t the only Nugget who struggled with 3-point shooting, his .319 from the arc is not good enough to help provide the spacing the Jokic-Nurkic lineup needs. Also, just limiting mistakes will go a long way in helping this young team, and for Mudiay that means reducing his 17.9 turnover percentage, among the worst of the league’s starters per Basketball-Reference.com.

T.J. McBride: While Nikola Jokic may be the most impactful player the Nuggets will only go as far as Emmanuel Mudiay will take them. Mudiay is still only 20 years old and only participated in 12 games for the Guangdong Southern Tigers between high school and being drafted 7th overall to the Nuggets.

His rookie season was essentially his first taste of any kind of competition since playing high school basketball in Texas and he still managed to post a line of 12.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. There is still endless amounts of room for Mudiay to grow into and he still is arguably the player with the highest ceiling on the Nuggets. For the Nuggets to make the playoffs Mudiay will need to take a substantial leap this year.

After seeing all three of the Nuggets rookies get extended minutes throughout against NBA level talent who do you think will be the most impactful rookie in the 2016-17 season?

An Nguyen: It’s gotta be Jamal Murray. While Juancho Hernangomez and Malik Beasley look very promising for the future, Murray projects to have an impact right out of the gate thanks to his dynamic scoring, natural shot-making ability, and his underrated floor general skills. Already a better option than Jameer Nelson on the court, Murray could see major minutes at the backup point guard position if he continues to impress.

Dan Fatigato: As much as I’d like to go with a long shot pick in Malik Beasley, I think the answer has to be Jamal Murray. He has an important NBA-level skill – bucket-getting – that will translate right away.

As the Nuggets bring back Gary Harris with caution from his groin injury, Murray should be thrust into more playing time than initially expected. Juancho Hernangomez is promising but will be buried for much of the year behind a loaded front court and still needs to bulk up.

I see Murray having some big nights off the bench early on, box score wise, as he should get some garbage time in Denver’s brutal early season schedule. That will give him confidence and put the league on notice. Not to mention make some teams regret passing on him.

Luke Binder: Jamal Murray. I was very impressed by Murray during training camp and the preseason. I think he could be a dark horse rookie of the year candidate. Call me crazy but I think Murray could push Emmanuel Mudiay for playing time at PG. He is the future of this franchise.

Joel Rush: I have little doubt that Denver’s most impactful rookie will be Jamal Murray. It isn’t clear yet whether the Nuggets will be limiting Harris’ minutes as he comes off injury, but assuming they ease him back into action to an extent, expanded playing time should open up for Murray.

But beyond that, he is just clearly the most NBA-ready player of the three. After Will Barton, he scored the second most total points for the Nuggets this preseason, as he showed off his ability to score and create in a variety of ways that really no other player on Denver’s roster possesses.

T.J. McBride: I am going to go against the grain and say Juancho Hernangomez. The “Wild Stallion”, as Michael Malone so delicately dubbed him, will fill the role of injury insurance for positions 3-5, depending on the situation.

Being that Arthur is still being held out of the majority of contact portions during practice is not a good sign going into the first game of the season. Adding in the injury history of both Wilson Chandler and Gallinari and it seems that the services of Hernangomez may be needed more than anyone would want to admit. So far he has shown an incredible nose for the ball and a silky smooth jump shot.

He has also displayed surprisingly creative passing coupled with better vision then expected out of the 21 year old Spaniard. IF Arthur continues to miss time and any of the wings on the Nuggets roster miss any time look for Malone to begin inserting the Stallion into his daily rotation.

Which Nuggets player will take the biggest leap in production this season and what will his stat line look like?

An Nguyen: Although I don’t know how fair this answer is, since Nurkic played under half of last season, I think he will make the biggest leap in on-court production. A man possessed, Jusuf has been working his tail off the entire offseason, cultivating in an eye-popping loss of 35 pounds in two months.

This isn’t just your average offseason talk either, Nurkic looks noticeably slimmer and the lack of extra weight has helped his athleticism tremendously as shown below. Overall he could have a stat line of 15 points on 45 percent from the field, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1.5 steals per game.

Dan Fatigato: Well, Jokic will make a jump in all the box score stats based mostly on playing more minutes. I see him as a 14-point, 10-rebound, 3-assist guy this year, conservatively. But the guy I think will have the biggest jump in production is Gary Harris.

I don’t like that he’s already dinged up, but assuming he makes a full recovery (and there’s already talk of him playing in the opener), I see him as a legit two-way rising star. I liked what I saw from him late in the season and in one game of Summer League.

Murray will be nipping at his heels which will elevate his game even higher. I think he can be a 20-point per game scorer in this league and will take a major step in that direction this season. I predict 18 points per game on 49% FG and 36% 3PT.

Luke Binder: Jarnell Stokes. There will be a lot of guys with improved numbers on this team. Stokes will be a guy to watch though. He possesses a unique skill set for a big and has a wonderful attitude and work ethic. I’m looking for him to earn minutes and make a bigger than expected impact.

Joel Rush: It’s tempting to go with Nikola Jokic here, but I believe Mudiay should make the biggest leap. He was thrown into a trial by fire last season, asked to carry an unusually large burden for his team as a relatively inexperienced rookie, as he played against and tried to defend the league’s elite point guards on a regular basis.

His first season growing pains should largely be behind him now, and with increased confidence and ability to execute at both ends of the court, 15 points, 7.5 assists, and 5 rebounds per game with a .500+ TS% should be within reach.

T.J. McBride: It seems that Gallinari is beginning to understand how to operate within the offense, not in spite of it, and the results are staggering. While the preseason obviously does not count, it is impossible to not be ecstatic about how smoothly Gallinari has transitioned INTO the offense.

Considering he finished the preseason with 86 points by somehow only taking 34 shots is almost completely absurd and unimaginable. Gallinari may not score more than he did while he was healthy last season but he will do it immensely more efficient.

I can see Gallinari averaging 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 assists while shooting 50% from the field, 41% from three, and 88% from the free throw line where he will continue to score at an astounding rate.

Time to go on the record. What will be the Nuggets record and seed in the Western Conference this year?

An Nguyen: 43-39, 7^th seed.

Dan Fatigato: I’ve tried all summer and early fall to contort these Western standings in a way that gets the Nuggets into the playoffs. Unfortunately, the best I can imagine is a 9-seed. I have a hard time seeing the Mavs, Rockets, Blazers, Thunder or Jazz falling out of the top 8. I’m already uneasy about leaving Memphis out of my playoff prediction. So I’ll take the Nuggets to finish 9th, just ahead of Minnesota, with a 39-43 record. I hope they prove me pessimistic.

Luke Binder: I told Ryan Edwards on his show that I thought this team could win 43-45 games and I’m sticking with that. Put me down for 44-38 and the seventh seed. I love this group of guys and the potential they have to surprise people around the league.

Joel Rush: In looking at all the young talent and upside packed into the Nuggets’ roster, it’s easy to entertain notions of the team having a winning season as they continue growing and developing together. But the fact that young teams struggle to win in the NBA is hard to get around, and a lot would have to go right, including avoiding previous bad luck with injuries, for the Nuggets to top 40 wins.

I predict they will fall just short of that with a 39-43 record, and that they’ll finish 11^th in the Western Conference, and last in the Northwest Division.

T.J. McBride: I went on the BSN Nuggets podcast and said this team will go 41-41 and barely squeak into the 8th seed. Getting back a healthy Nurkic, Gallinari, Mudiay, and Chandler is more then enough to get to .500 and make the playoffs.