BSN Exclusive: Jon Gray on Rox rotation: "We're definitely not at our best, not even close"

I’ve written so much about Jon Gray since he was drafted in 2013 by the Colorado Rockies in the first round that it could all be compiled into a book, complete with twists and turns, ups and downs, love—a marriage—loss—some injuries, and heartbreak—last season’s Wild Card game.

And the crazy part is… it would all ultimately just be a prologue to whatever comes next.

Those who have seen Gray through all steps of his journey to this point have seen him struggle the way he is now against far less accomplished and talented opposition. A quick glance through his stats in the minors will reveal elevated ERAs at Rookie ball (4.05) Triple-A (4.33) and even at MLB (5.53, 4.61).

All of those seasons follow a pattern; poor starts, sometimes extremely poor starts, followed by long stretches of elite pitching.

A 4.05 against Rookie-level hitters when you’ve got college experience and are still touching triple-digits is a bit puzzling. But much of that was created by an innings limit and nerves he admitted to me after his very first start as a pro. He was sitting on an ugly 8.00-plus ERA his first few months of Triple-A before settling into a string of quality starts to cut that number in half and earn his promotion to the show.

These nerves have been an issue throughout his career and there are two ways to look at it; this is what will stop him from becoming a true MLB ace, or once he conquers this, he is sure to fulfill his potential and become one of the best pitchers in baseball.

And there is precedence for both arguments.

We have the aforementioned struggles in the minors and his current run of four bad outings to one good over his last five, going back to the 2017 postseason.

Then, there’s the measurable fact that every other time he has gone through this, he has come out of it.

BSN Denver contributor Tracy Ringolsby wrote on July 20, 2017, comparing Gray’s early career to some legends in the game, noting:

Consider the five starting pitchers who have won the most games in the past decade, averaging more than 13 wins a season.

• Kershaw’s career line is 141-62 with a 2.35 ERA. Fifty-one starts into his big league career, however, he was 13-13 with a 3.40 ERA for the Dodgers.

• Zack Greinke is 145-69 with a 3.10 ERA since the start of the 2008 season, but in his first 71 starts (2004-07) he was 16-34 with a 4.76 ERA.

• Adam Wainwright spent his rookie season (2006) in the bullpen with the Cardinals, then he went 14-12 with a 3.70 ERA in 21 starts in 2007. Since then, he is 129-68 with a 3.21 ERA despite spending a season on the disabled list.

• Roy Halladay, who retired after the 2013 season, was 18-17 with a 4.95 ERA from 1998-2001, which included a return trip to the Class A level in the Minor Leagues. In his final 12 big league seasons, he was 185-88 with a 3.17 ERA.

• Max Scherzer was 21-26 with a 3.75 ERA in his first three big league seasons, but he is 115-48 with a 3.18 ERA since.

We’ve seen flashes of this from Gray for years.

And we asked him about the differences between his rough outings and that feeling once he gets into a groove.

“I think the two biggest things are how simple my delivery is—I don’t try to follow too much of an elaborate delivery or plan, I just kept it simple, try to find my target and just let my arm work— and the more aggressive I am, the better command I have,” he said.

That aggressiveness manifests most specifically in the first-pitch strike, which has always been an indicator of whether or not he is feeling it.

“It’s so important,” he said. “If you don’t get that, it really limits your options to either your best secondary or fastball down the lane. You don’t really want to fall into too many patterns that they can guess what you’re going with. So you get strike one, you can expand the strike zone, throw any pitch you want to, really. You get a lot more options.”

Gray gets himself in trouble typically in two main ways. He either tries to get too fine, too perfect or to think of it more negatively, to shy away from potential mistakes. The other is that he loses focus, gets too relaxed for a pitch or two and in either case it tends to snowball, especially for a pitcher who, the advanced analytics tell us, has been consistently unlucky on balls in play throughout his career.

	ERA	FIP
2013 (R)	4.05	2.51
2014 (AA)	3.91	3.43
2015 (AAA)	5.53	3.63
2016 (MLB)	4.61	3.60
2017 (MLB)	3.67	3.18
2018 (MLB)	6.23	3.56

There’s a theory that says this will all just even out with time. There’s another that says he’s a slight adjustment away from fixing it. Still another points to consistent lapses in focus or command or nerves and that he may never live up to his peripherals.

Gray’s theory? He needs to be on the attack from his first pitch to his last because the pitcher has the advantage as long as he executes with confidence.

“That’s the way I like to think about it,” he said. “I think the aggressiveness is totally it. I think that’s going to help you be in the zone more and win in the zone more.”

The Wolf of Blake Street is trying to find his rhythm in a starting rotation trying to do the same.

“I feel like we’re still getting our feet under us a little bit,” he admitted. “We’re definitely not at our best, not even close to it, right now. But I feel like we’re still shaking off some of our rust. But then again, you see glimpses of what’s about to come, you know. Shoot, I mean, I know that German had a rough one yesterday but I know he’s going to come right back and give us a good game,” he said, predicting Marquez’ excellent outing in Pittsburg.

“So as long as we do that, and continue to take steps forward, even with bad things happening, because it’s going to happen, then I think we’ll be right where we want to.”

It has often been said that patience is key for ballplayers and their fans. With expectations higher than they’ve ever been for the Colorado Rockies, Jon Gray and the rest of the rotation have earned some leeway to work through the growing pains of their early careers.

And while there is still time, this pitching corp must figure out the current woes to get back on track and take this team to their first ever consecutive postseason appearance.