BSN Exclusive: How Nolan Arenado is conquering the Coors Field Curse

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Like every great player before him to ever don the purple pinstripes of the Colorado Rockies, Nolan Arenado has largely fallen victim to a curse.

As we have seen during the Hall of Fame debates over Todd Helton and Larry Walker, it seems the first and last line of every national article and television segment must make reference to Coors Field.

And while it would be in poor faith to argue that the thin air and huge outfield have no effect on Arenado and others, it is intellectual laziness at best to suggest his home ballpark is the most, or even one of the most, important elements to his insanely lofty numbers.

For a quick refresher, No. 28 has a career slashline of .294/.349/.544 and his 203 home runs and 574 RBI are more than anyone else in the National League over the last six-plus seasons.

But the question is where does that production really come from?

Looking further into some statistics and quite a bit of eye-test information, you can find a myriad of different answers to that question.

Some will suggest that it is, indeed, the park he calls home that is the most important factor, but others tell a different story entirely.

In fact, the more games he plays the more consistent patterns begin to emerge.

First, let us concede that Arenado has had a better OPS at home than on the road in each of his years in MLB though the power numbers, particularly home runs have been close to even. He actually hit more yonkers on the road in 2015 and only one fewer on the road than at home in 2017.

Putting aside for a moment that the vast majority of ballplayers in the history of the game have hit better in their own ballpark, we can find this data compelling while also cross-applying it with other patterns to see if the logic holds up.

To get the best full context of exactly how and why Arenado is so good at the plate, we can look at two other elements of his game that have been just as, if not more, consistent components of his offense.

He has always been clutch and he destroys left-handed pitching.

His career splits when it comes to handedness are stark. Arenado has an OPS of 1.020 against lefties and .847 against righties. That’s a difference of .173. And again, he has done this every single year of his career.

For comparison, Arenado has an OPS of .994 at home and .792 on the road, a difference of .202. Notably, he is better against lefties than he is at home.

In other words, putting Arenado in Coors Field increases his chances of getting a big hit, but not as much as putting a lefty on the mound in a neutral ballpark does.

What this really shows is more proof that the Rockies face unique challenges when hitting on the road but let’s put a pin in this for a moment and look at the “environment” in which Arenado excels the most.

He remains the King in the Clutch.

Over the last four years, he has averaged an OPS of 1.010 in high-leverage situations. Again, this number over 425 plate appearances is a large enough sample to create confidence that we have a fair and stable subset of data.

He has always maintained that this is because he sees his primary job as “to produce runs” and says the key element is treating those at-bats like any other. “I try not to think too much about it but of course I know when the game is on the line in the ninth,” he says. “When I’m thinking too much up there, I’m not in a good spot.”

Simply, you could put three hypothetical scenarios on the table showing three different hitting environments.

What if Nolan Arenado took all of his at-bats at Coors Field?

What of Nolan Arenado took all of his at-bats against lefties?

And what if Nolan Arenado took all of his at-bats with the game on the line.

While most, without looking at the numbers, would probably guess that the haven at 5,280 feet would be the best possible situation for Arenado, the data shows it comfortably in third.

If you want to increase his chances of getting a hit,  you should put him against a lefty or in a high-leverage situation before you should put him in his home ballpark.

Perhaps this is how Arenado will finally break through the curse of Coors Field. There is still plenty of research to be done to decipher what exactly the park does to offense but at least one player has shown that this is secondary to measurable skillsets that ought to be valued and applauded.

Nolan Arenado isn’t a Coors Field creation. He’s a clutch creation.