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BSN Breakdown: Examining the stretch runs for the AFC's Big Three

November 5, 2015

Hey, we here at BSN Denver headquarters understand it’s way too early – three-weeks-before-Thanksgiving early – to start discussing the National Football League playoff picture.

But unlike the one-game-at-a-time NFL teams, we’re afforded that little look-ahead luxury.

And with only five AFC teams above .500 after eight weeks and three of those squads, including your Denver Broncos, still undefeated and holding divisional leads of at least 3.5 games, it’s actually later than we think.

To put those advantages another way, a second-place team like the Jets, Steelers or Raiders would have to win seven or eight games down the stretch and have their corresponding division leader finish 4-5 or worse in its final nine contests to have a shot at overtaking one of the Big Three.

Barring a catastrophic quarterback injury, that’s not happening.

Just take a quick gander at the current NFL Elo ratings on the analytics site FiveThirtyEight. In order, the 7-0 Patriots, Broncos and Bengals sit atop the league ratings, and in the site’s simulated full season, all three are projected to finish with at least 13 wins.

Not surprisingly, the simulations say New England, Denver and Cincy all have at least a 99 percent chance at making the playoffs and a 97 percent of winning their respective divisions with the Pats (77 and 26 percent) and Broncos (64 and 17 percent) owning the best chances of earning a first-round AFC bye and winning the Super Bowl, respectively.

Digesting those numbers, it’s clear it’s getting late rather early this season in the AFC.

Along with the aforementioned health of key players, the remaining schedules, naturally, will play the largest role in determining how the AFC playoff seeds shake out and, more specifically, which two teams earn the coveted first-round byes and who garners homefield advantage.

At first glance, the Broncos and Patriots appear to own the clearest schedule edges with the Orange and Blue playing four of their final six games at home, including prime-time visits by New England and Cincinnati, and the Pats having five of their final nine contests against foes from the AFC South and NFC East – the only two divisions in the league somehow currently without a team above .500.

Here, though, is a more detailed breakdown of the rest-of-season slates for the AFC’s Big Three:

Broncos