BSN Breakdown: Assessing the upset chances in the NFL's divisional-playoff round

 

The divisional round of the playoffs – i.e. the best weekend on the NFL calendar – is upon us.

Two days. Four games. Multitudes of storylines and drama.

And, hey, double all the above if your favorite team is among the Elite Eight.

We here in Broncos Country are fortunate enough to be divisional weekend veterans, with the Orange & Blue making an appearance for the fifth consecutive season. In three of the four years, though, this is where the Broncos’ season came to an end, and that includes the hard-to-stomach upset home losses to the Ravens and Colts to conclude the 2012 and ’14 seasons, respectively.

The Broncos are once again solid home favorites against the Steelers on Sunday, and with Friday’s announcement that elite receiver Antonio Brown will miss the game in his concussion recovery, the line has shot up to minus-9 at some online sportsbooks after the Broncos opened as 4-point favorites.

Not exactly a good omen as the Broncos closed as 9-point favorites against the Ravens three years ago and were 7-point favorites against Indy last season.

So will Broncos Country have to cope with a third divisional-round upset loss in four years as a higher-seeded team, or is it another No. 1 or 2 seed’s turn to feel the sting?

Even though all four home teams (the Broncos, Patriots, Cardinals and Panthers) opened as favorites of at least a field goal, recent history strongly suggests one of the quartet will lose outright as at least one No. 1 or 2 seed has fallen in each of the last 10 postseasons.

Overall, the 40 top-seeded home teams are 24-16 (.600) during that 2005-14 span, including only 11-9 (.550) in the AFC.

And, mind you, this is win-or-go-home stuff we’re talking here, not point spreads.

That in mind, here’s a quick breakdown of this weekend’s four games and some thoughts on where an upset could transpire:

(5) Chiefs at (2) Patriots

When: 2:30 p.m. MT Saturday (CBS)

The case: K.C. has won 11 straight and is riding the high of its first playoff triumph in 22 years while the defending champs are 14-3 at home in the postseason under Bill Belichick, including a 9-1 mark at home in the divisional round. Still, there are health and mindset questions lingering for New England, which dropped four of its final six regular-season games while the Chiefs have the confidence – and the defense – to knock Tom Brady and Co. off their perch.

Upset chances: Strong

(5) Packers at (2) Cardinals

When: 6:15 p.m. Saturday (ABC)

The case: The Cards put a 38-8 beatdown on the visiting Pack only three weeks ago in the desert, sacking Aaron Rodgers eight times and returning two of his fumbles for TDs. Green Bay, though, enters the rematch in much better shape health-wise and have the post-season experience advantage with neither Arizona coach Bruce Arians or QB Carson Palmer having won a playoff game. However, that also means the Cards are rather hungry.

Upset chances: Poor

(6) Seahawks at (1) Panthers

When: 11 a.m. Sunday (FOX)

The case: The two-time defending NFC champs are hot, having won nine of 11 games since their 27-23 home loss to Carolina in Week 6. The Seahawks also seemed to have re-discovered their defensive mojo, allowing only one offensive TD in their last six road games, but Cam Newton is this year’s NFL MVP – accounting for a whopping 45 TDs this season – the Panthers’ D has some teeth of its own and Seattle can’t count on another missed chip-shot field goal to bail them out in this one.

Upset chances: So-so

(6) Steelers at (1) Broncos

When: 2:40 p.m. Sunday (CBS)

The case: Pittsburgh prevailed 34-27 when these teams met in Week 15, no one can discount Ben Roethlisberger’s toughness or postseason pedigree (11-5 with two Super Bowl titles) and then there are the lingering questions about the effectiveness (17 interceptions in 11 games) and postseason track record (nine one-and-dones) of a certain 39-year-old quarterback. But Big Ben’s shoulder is hurting, the team’s top two running backs (Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams) and league’s top receiver (Brown) all are out and the post-season path appears to be well-marked for a certain 39-year-old QB to make a run at a story-book ending with one of the league’s top defenses riding shotgun.

Upset chances: Poor … and dwindling fast