ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Outside of the 100-plus hour work weeks, sleeping at the team’s facility on a regular basis and the crippling stress, having success as an NFL head coach is relatively easy.
Even for a first-time head coach.
But generally, a head coach’s success has less to do about the head coach himself and more to do about one other person in the organization.
The quarterback.
So before calling for Vance Joseph’s job amid the Denver Broncos’ three-game losing streak, understand how crucial a quarterback is to a head coach’s success, specifically a first-time head coach.
The Denver Broncos’ next opponent, the Los Angeles Rams, is a perfect example of this.
Sean McVay took over the Rams’ head coaching job before the 2017 season, much like Joseph did in Denver.
During the 21 regular season games since, McVay’s racked up an incredible 16-5 record — including being only one of two remaining undefeated teams left this year — and has been deemed as the great young mind in the NFL. One of his five losses was a meaningless Week 17 game last year when McVay started backup quarterback Sean Mannion.
In that same time period, Joseph has less than half the wins, going 7-14.
Yet look no further than each coach’s quarterback performance to find out why.
In McVay’s 16 regular season wins, 2016’s No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff has been money — throwing for 37 touchdowns to only eight interceptions for a passer rating well over 100.
In the team’s five losses, however, Goff and Mannion combined to throw only three touchdowns to three interceptions with a passer rating just over 86 in only one of those games.
During the team’s perfect start to 2018, Goff leads the league in passing yards, has 12 touchdowns to only four interceptions and has a 119 passer rating.
Joseph, on the other hand, has not been nearly as fortunate with his signal callers.
Working with a combination of Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch and Case Keenum, the Broncos’ quarterback play has been among the worst in the league the past two seasons.
Last year, Denver had the second-worst team passer rating (73), only trailing the Cleveland Browns, who then used the No. 1 overall pick to draft a quarterback.
In the team’s 14 losses since the start of 2017, Denver’s signal callers have thrown half as many touchdowns (11) as they have interceptions (22).
However, in their seven wins, these quarterbacks nearly threw twice as many touchdowns (13) as they did interceptions (7).
In Joseph’s tenure, his quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions (29) than touchdowns (24), making the Broncos only one of two teams to do so in that span. The other, unsurprisingly, is the Browns who now appear to have their future franchise quarterback in Baker Mayfield.
Kyle Shanahan was another first-time head coach that was hired in 2017 — and actually was the runner-up in Denver. Despite the local and national narrative, Shanahan hasn’t been any better than Joseph, racking up an identical 7-14 record.
The only difference between the two is Shanahan has had a competent quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, for eight starts, while none of Joseph’s quarterbacks have had more touchdowns than interceptions in his tenure.
Shanahan’s success has come nearly exclusively when Garoppolo’s started.
In Garoppolo’s eight starts, the San Francisco 49ers have gone 6-2 behind Jimmy G’s 12 touchdowns to eight interceptions and a passer rating over 90.
However, when Shanahan hasn’t had the fourth-highest paid quarterback in NFL history, he’s been even less successful than Joseph, going 1-12.
In the 13 games without Garoppolo under Shanahan, the 49ers have 12 touchdowns to 14 interceptions and a passer rating in the mid-70s between C.J. Beathard and Brian Hoyer.
Yet despite being dependent on a quarterback, Shanahan has escaped the level of criticism that’s surrounded Joseph, even though Joseph has had worse play from the most important position on the field.
An argument could certainly be made that these head coaches have had a significant impact on each quarterbacks play.
The counter to that, however, is both the Rams and 49ers each made the biggest investment an organization can make into their respective quarterbacks — Essentially giving each coach the cream of the crop at the most important position in all of sports.
Not only did the Rams use the No. 1 overall pick to select Goff in 2016, they traded two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and two third-round picks in order to move to the top of the draft to take the talented signal caller.
San Francisco traded a second-round pick to acquire Garoppolo in 2017 and then signed him to a then-NFL record 5-year deal worth $27.5 million per season.
On the other hand, Joseph has had to work with a seventh-round pick, Siemian, and a former second-round pick who the rest of the league has deemed a backup, Osweiler.
Joseph was given a first-round quarterback, but the rest of the league is quickly showing Lynch’s lack of success wasn’t due to Joseph, as Paxton remains a free agent after the Broncos cut him in September.
This year, Joseph has Keenum.
However, not only is Keenum’s play not up to par of a top quarterback — or even average — Denver’s investment in him isn’t as monumental as the initial $18 million price-tag would suggest. Only two current non-rookie quarterback starters have a lower salary than Keenum’s $18 million per year average.
While McVay and Shanahan were given the treasure chest for their respective quarterbacks, Joseph has had to deal merely with coins to find his.
The rest of the 2017 first-time head coaching class falls right into place with this trend, too.
Anthony Lynn received a top-10 quarterback performance from Philip Rivers with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2017, and his team’s record reflected it with a 9-7 season.
Sean McDermott, with the Buffalo Bills, received a top-half of the league output from Tyrod Taylor in 2017 and his team finished with a 9-7 record.
History shows it’s simple: Head coaches, specifically first-time head coaches, succeed when they have adequate quarterback play. This is by no means a secret within the Broncos’ organization, either, as one high-ranking member of the Broncos told BSN Denver during the offseason Joseph just needed a quarterback in order to succeed.
Yes, Joseph has been given talent in other areas — i.e., Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr. — but the Rams had just as good of talent with Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley two years before Goff was the full-time starter and McVay joined.
In those two years, the Rams went a combined 11-21 with poor quarterback play. Those two talented players weren’t able to win until they had an excellent quarterback.
This goes well-beyond first-time coaches, too.
Behind every successful long-term coach currently in the NFL, there’s excellent quarterback play behind him.
Bill Belichick, Tom Brady.
Sean Payton, Drew Brees.
Mike Tomlin, Ben Roethlisberger.
Pete Carol, Russell Wilson.
Mike McCarthy, Aaron Rodgers.
Add Sean McVay and Jared Goff to the list soon, if not now.
Joseph, on the other hand, is still waiting for that QB.
Until the Broncos receive adequate quarterback play — whether that be from Keenum, Chad Kelly or a player not currently with the organization — it’s going to be nearly impossible for Joseph, or any head coach for that matter, to find success.

0 Comments (6 conversations)
Jack Double Magnum
One thing I’m worried about with Vance Joseph and this coaching staff & the disappointment we’ve seen so far is what impact this is or could have on the rookies & first year players. Would Bolles be further along? Would Isaiah McKenzie have been able to bounce back mentally/confidence wise with a different coaching staff after last year? I’m really excited about our rookie class but I’m honestly worried that this coaching staff is completely incapable of developing a young player at this point. All the rookies that have contributed this year have all been from their advanced maturity & leadership skills. We didn’t draft players this year like in the past where there was going on be as big of a learning curve. I just haven’t seen this staff develop a single player yet and it’s concerning for the future of this franchise IMO what impact this staff has going forward in a downward spiral
Dags
You make some great points Zac, and I completely agree. In a recent pod, you and Ryan talked about the value of a head coach getting “his guy” at QB. While I have seen many indications of poor coaching, there is is no doubt that Vance has not been given much help from his QBs. I have heard it said that Case was not VJ’s guy, but rather was a choice made for him by the organization.
Perhaps it’s unfair for us to pass final judgement on Vance’s coaching abilities before we see what he can do with better play from under center. That may not have to come from the “cream of the crop” in the draft or a high dollar free agent. In many cases, the cohesion between the head coach and the QB is more important than the skills on paper.
(Not trying to fuel the hype train here but hear me out)
VJ’s QB may already be on the roster. Regardless of where he was drafted, Vance Joesph said that Chad Kelly was his favorite QB in the draft – his guy. In the preseason, after the first team offense played anemic football, Chad Kelly entered the game and everything started clicking. While much of this could be dismissed as strong play against 2nd and 3rd teamers, the team’s engine just ran smoother with Kelly on the field. Maybe some of that added success could be attributed to a better connection between the head coach and his QB.
I’m not calling for a QB switch yet, but this is definitely a factor to consider if Case’s struggles continue. I certainly think the possibility needs to be thuroughly explored before showing Vance Joseph the door. Thoughts?
MisterSplit
Thank you for this article Mr. Stevens!!! This is why subscribe to BSN Denver. I left a comment how VJ might be getting the short end of the stick when it comes to a qb. Here you come lay down the law with this article. Literally gave me goosebumps bc I’m reading it and like yes yes yes and uh huh. Duh I’ve been saying this for 2 yrs now when they wanted to fire him last yr! Definitely room for VJ to grow as a coach with decisions and clock management etc. But that comes with being on the job. Those mistakes are bound to happen. I just feel like get this man a qb like the other teams have done for they coaches and if he fails then fire his @$$! But once again thank you for everything you guys do. Saving the podcasts for when I hit the road. Truck driver here keeping America moving! #Let2IN (let in 2 cars or trucks) while on your way to work or home! Go Broncos!!!!
Zac Stevens
AuthorHahah I LOVE it! Thank you SO much! These comments mean a ton.
I think you summed it up great — This isn’t a defense of Joseph, per se, it’s just stating the facts that he may not be set up to succeed. I think it would be fair to see what he does with competent QB play and if it works out then great, if not, then moving on would certainly make sense.
Let in 2 cars or trucks! haha.
3 and Outstanding
Sure the quarterback has to perform, but the playcalling has to allow the quarterback the opportunity to do so. I made this statement on this weeks question of the week. Which was then completely dismissed. It bears repeating here though. Stats don’t lie. Keenum is not a pocket passer. His rating goes up significantly outside of the pocket. Those are facts. Whether its Musgrave, or Joseph calling those plays, they simply are calling plays that are not playing Keenum to his strengths.
It’s all great and wonderful to try and open up play action for Keenum, but that only works when the run game is being featured as a threat. As we saw against the Jets that is just not the case. Keenum had 51 passing plays called. Some of the more mind-boggling of which were play action when the run had been completely abandoned by that point. We can point at the QB and say that he needs to make those plays. That does not excuse the plays that are being called from the sidelines. The play calling has to set the quarterback up for success. It’s a two-way street.
Part of being an effective coach is understanding your quarterback’s strengths and limitations and building a game plan around those things. That is not something we have really seen from this Denver team this year. Keenum has the tools to be a good quarterback. We have all seen it. When you put him behind center, spread offense with a 3 step drop and expect him to deliver dimes in the pocket he struggles. He holds the ball way too long, he looks uncomfortable, and he looks like a deer in headlights. When he is allowed to bootleg, or move around he makes the amazing passes we all know he is capable of.
If I can see that from my couch, watching it on tv why can’t the coaches see it from the sideline when they work with the guy week in and week out? I want VJ to be successful. I want Denver to ball out and make the playoffs. I would love nothing more for them to go on a tear and win out the rest of the season. You and I both know that is not realistic with the team playing the way they are right now. Maybe it’s not time to move on from VJ, but he is partly responsible for this team’s record over 2 seasons and that shouldn’t be scapegoated, or ignored. His job is to make sure the gameplan and the personnel are ready on gameday. That is not being done and that is on him.
Zac Stevens
AuthorThose are all good points, however, I don’t think the coaches are completely sabotaging all four QBs they’ve had.
Can all of the coaches coach better? Certainly! Can they call better plays at times? No doubt!
But there isn’t much the coaches can do to help QBs hit wide open passes and not throw interceptions when there are other receivers on the play that are wide open.
This article isn’t to completely dismiss Joseph of blame, it’s to point out that simply blaming him likely won’t change much until the QB play drastically improves.
3 and Outstanding
I guess we will see this week if anything changes.
As for Keenum. I don’t think you can be an effective QB in the NFL if you can’t pass the ball from the pocket. Outside of Michael Vick and maybe Cam Newton you just cannot get away with not being as effective on a 3 step drop. I don’t think Keenum is the right guy, but I also know he is what Denver has right now and that isn’t going to change.
Orange and Blue Devils
Ponder this: if WE had hired Sean McVay, we would have (1) had a good chance at landing Kirk Cousins since they worked together and liked each other in DC; and (2) we could have kept Wade Phillips.
Killertofu17
I think if you put McVay in Denver and VJ in LA the Rams would be 7-9 tops Denver would be a playoff team. We took first time head coach who was defensive minded when our Defense was in great shape. We knew offense was were the issues lied and yet thought hiring two cast of OCs would mitigate the problem. We needed an offensive minded guy, and kept Wade. Now VJ and DC Joe Woods are not helping the D get better, quite the opposite. And our stagnet offense is making everything worse and our head coach cant/wont do anything to change it. Switching RG is not a solution. This goes above VJ, if Elway cant admit his mistakes and move on from VJ soon then I think it’s time to consider we move on from him.
Zac Stevens
AuthorI’m not quite sure that would address the root of the issue: QB performance.
Hey, the answer could be Case or Chad, but if not, they need to find the answer before I think anything will really change, regardless of who the coach is.