WEEK 5: AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Date: Sunday, October 11
Time: 11 a.m. MDT
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
TV: CBS

By this point in the season, we might have a good grasp on what the Patriots are without Tom Brady. It’s worth noting that Bill Belichick’s career winning percentage is .769 when Brady is his starting quarterback and .462 when he’s not, including a pedestrian 18-19 record in New England with quarterbacks other than Brady opening the game. (However, it must also be noted that Belichick’s Patriots were 5-13 with Drew Bledsoe as the starter in 2000 and for two games in 2001, but 13-6 with Matt Cassel, Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett filling in for Brady in later years.)

Notes:

• This is the first time the Broncos have faced a Patriots team led by a QB other than Tom Brady since Oct. 20, 2008, when Matt Cassel led New England to a 41-7 romp over Denver on Monday Night Football.
• Denver lugs a five-game road losing streak at AFC East foes into the season, although the Broncos will have a chance to stop it one week before this duel in New England with a Thursday Night Footballgame against the New York Jets.
• The Broncos are just 2-8 in road games against AFC East teams since Mike Shanahan was fired after the 2008 season. Denver was 5-5 in its last 10 away contests against the AFC East prior to Shanahan’s dismissal.

Ridiculously early prediction: Broncos 17, Patriots 10. If Jarrett Stidham is not the answer for New England, the Patriots will find themselves in a series of slow-paced slugfests. The Patriots’ defense should keep New England in games and generally elevate their floor; it would thus come as no surprise if they enter this game 2-2 with losses to the Seahawks and Chiefs and wins over Miami and Las Vegas already on their ledger. But the combination of a demanding schedule and an offense short on weapons will give the Pats no margin for error.

WEEK 6: MIAMI DOLPHINS

Date: Sunday, October 18
Time: 2:05 p.m. MDT
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
TV: CBS

One of the benchmarks of the Broncos’ struggles in recent years was their work against rookie and first-year quarterbacks, which could be in play in this game if Tua Tagovailoa has assumed the starting reins in Miami. The Broncos faced such passers six times in the 2018 and 2019 seasons, and lost four of those games – to teams led by Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minshew. Denver’s 27-17 win over the David Blough-led Lions in Week 16 of last year snapped a three-game skid against rookie and first-year passers. Prior to the last two seasons, the Broncos had gone 10-2 against such starting quarterbacks since 1990. Meanwhile, teams coordinated or coached by Vic Fangio have a 9-5 record against rookie and first-year quarterbacks over the past decade, including Denver’s 1-1 mark last year.

Notes:

• Even though the Broncos and Dolphins are in the AFC, they are infrequent opponents. This will be just the 12^thregular-season game between the clubs in the last 40 years. Among the other 15 AFC teams, only the Jaguars and Texans have faced the Broncos less frequently, but they did not enter the NFL until 1995 and 2002, respectively.
• Miami’s regular-season winning percentage of .727 against the Broncos since 1980 – compiled via an 8-3 record — is the highest for any team facing the Broncos in that span. The only other AFC teams with winning regular-season marks against the Broncos since 1980 are the Jaguars (5-4) and the Bills (9-8).

Ridiculously early prediction: Broncos 27, Dolphins 9. Miami improved its secondary in free agency and appears headed in the right direction for the long term, but there will be more painful Sundays in the Dolphins’ short-term future before they return to contention.

WEEK 7: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Date: Sunday, October 25
Time: 2:25 p.m. MDT
Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
TV: CBS

“Nine times?”

“Nine times.”

Get ready for the sound drops from Ferris Bueller’s Day Off in the days preceding this renewal of hostilities between the long-time AFC West rivals. Kansas City has won nine consecutive games in the series dating back to Nov. 15, 2015, giving the Chiefs their longest winning streak in the series since an 11-game run from 1964-69. The Broncos snapped that run in the first game in the series after the Chiefs’ first Super Bowl win; a similar result could help the Broncos establish a serious challenge to the Chiefs’ recent hegemony over the AFC West, with four consecutive division titles since Peyton Manning’s March 2016 retirement.

Notes:

• The Broncos draw a break in not having to face an Andy Reid-led team after a bye; his teams are 18-3 after an off week. The Chiefs will have extra time to prepare for the Broncos after playing Buffalo on Thursday night in Week 6, but Reid’s teams are just 7-6 after Thursday games, including a 3-5 mark since he became Kansas City’s coach in 2013.
• Since 2000, Denver is 5-7 when facing the defending Super Bowl champion, including 3-3 at home and 2-4 on the road.

Ridiculously early prediction: Chiefs 37, Broncos 31. Much as I hated to do it, I raised the possibility on a recent DNVR Broncos podcast that this would be a “moral victory” for the Broncos after two resounding defeats to the Chiefs in 2019.

WEEK 8: BYE

• This is the fourth bye in the last five Broncos seasons and fifth in the last eight to take place in November.
• The Broncos are 22-9 overall after byes, but have lost three of the last four post-bye games, with the win coming against the Chargers in Carson, Calif. on Nov. 18, 2018 (23-22).
• Prior to a 30-27 post-bye defeat to the Chiefs on Nov. 27, 2016, the Broncos had won six consecutive games after bye weeks.
• Last year’s post-bye loss to the Vikings ended a 6-1 run for the Broncos in road games played immediately after bye weeks.

WEEK 9: AT ATLANTA FALCONS

Date: Sunday, November 8
Time: 11 a.m. MST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: CBS

The Falcons are a rare opponent for the Broncos, and Denver will always have the Super Bowl XXXIII as a trump card in the series. But the Broncos have struggled against Atlanta in recent times, losing three of the last four games in the series dating back to 2004. Denver’s lone win over Atlanta in that span came on Nov. 16, 2008, in Mike Shanahan’s final season as head coach. Daniel Graham capped a second-half rally from a 13-7 halftime deficit with a 9-yard touchdown catch from Jay Cutler to provide the winning points in a 24-20 triumph that pushed the Broncos to 6-4.

Notes:

• Denver-Atlanta is always a fascinating game from a historical perspective, since the Broncos flirted with moving to Atlanta in the mid 1960s. On Valentine’s Day of 1965, co-owners Gerald and Allan Phipps declined an offer from Atlanta to relocate for the 1965 season. The next day, Gerald Phipps offered $1.5 million to Cal Kunz for 52 percent of the franchise he didn’t own, and the Broncos stayed. In the months that followed, Denver responded to the Broncos’ recommitment to Denver, with fans buying a then-franchise-record of just over 23,000 season tickets.
• Including Super Bowl XXXIII, Denver won six consecutive games in the series from 1985 through 2000.
• The magic statistic in this game? Turnovers. Denver has never beaten the Falcons when giving away the ball at least three times, but is 9-2 when turning over the football two or fewer times. Four turnovers in a 2012 game at the Georgia Dome — including three Manning interceptions on the Broncos’ first three possessions — doomed the Broncos to a 27-21 defeat in Manning’s first road start with the Broncos.

Ridiculously early prediction: Broncos 24, Falcons 23. Atlanta’s defense improved by leaps and bounds in the second half of the 2019 season, and its revival is largely responsible for saving coach Dan Quinn’s job. But the Falcons have had no home-field advantage since moving into Mercedes-Benz Stadium; in the last three seasons, they are 12-12 at home and 12-12 on the road. Drew Lock may not hold the SEC’s single-season touchdown-pass record anymore thanks to Joe Burrow, but that doesn’t mean he can’t go into the heart of SEC country to steal a win for his new team.